Russian invasion of Ukraine

Price of oil will not concern Ukraine if it helps their cause
Only my opinion of course, but I think it’s wildly naive to believe that the US hasn’t implemented strict red lines within the provision of equipment.

After November if Biden wins I’m sure the US will happily see all of Russias economic infrastructure as fair game, but again imo there is no way they’ve provided ATACMS without the clear alignment that they don’t use them before the election to target infrastructure that can affect the western markets.
 
Only my opinion of course, but I think it’s wildly naive to believe that the US hasn’t implemented strict red lines within the provision of equipment.

After November if Biden wins I’m sure the US will happily see all of Russias economic infrastructure as fair game, but again imo there is no way they’ve provided ATACMS without the clear alignment that they don’t use them before the election to target infrastructure that can affect the western markets.
Ukraine are getting battered, last thing on Zelenskys mind will be effect on oil prices
 
Warriors Ukrainian:
Mechanized attack with four tanks on Krasnohorivka.

The armored group reached the refractory plant, chased down the infantry, and on the way back came under fire from FPV drones and artillery. Only two tanks were able to leave the city, one of which was immobilized already outside the city a

From "The Analyst":

KRASNAHORIVKA & KHERSON

Krasnahorivka is now the frontline in the Donetsk region and a major target for the Russians. Taking it allows them to undermine the Ukrainian forces defending west of Marinka - a long line of hard to break fortifications mixed in with swamps, rivers and lakes. There are many open fields here with nowhere much to hide.
The Russians have had a hard time here because the area has been fortified since 2014. There are many defence lines around Krasnahorivka and attacking it has cost them dearly.
The Russians got lucky and spotted and destroyed a Ukrainian EW site as it was being deployed. Heavy artillery preparation caused considerable destruction and suppressed a good deal of the defending fire. On top of that they then deployed a large force of two platoons of mechanised infantry.
The first wave was annihilated out in the open. The second arrived with a tank using corrugated welded shed plates over much of its body as drone protection. Equipped with an EW jammer it managed to actually get to its target, deploy troops and get back unscathed.
The following could only happen in the world of incompetent Russian leadership. So proud were they of their invention and its success and the fact it was being shown world wide on social media, they video the tank and how they made it and how they were preparing others. The video was geo-located by Ukraine and HIMARS did the rest, wiping out the site where these tanks were being prepared.
Ukraine mounted counter attacks to push the Russians back, forcing them out of key location. They weren’t prepared to give this up so easily and launched a counter attack of their own, this time using another version of the so called ‘Turtle Tanks’.
Some 24-36 tanks and BMP’s were deployed to ensure success. At least six attack helicopters were also used firing dozens of suppressing rockets. On top of that glide bomb strikes and heavy mortar attacks allowed them to get fresh troops into the suburbs.
The Russians are clearly massing for an attack into the centre of the town.
Yet again air dominance has allowed them to use heavy bombs to break defences - the value of the glide bombs in breaking defences is huge and proving critical. Dealing with this problem has to be a priority, but remains a challenge even with more air defences.
There is no question that the Russians know they don’t have long to maximise their chances before long delayed aid changes the battlefield against them.
Meanwhile down in Kherson, the Russians have more or less accepted the fact Ukraine has taken Krynky and the local topographical situation, with the Ukrainian forces supported by artillery over the river on high ground, and with a heavy EW advantage, is too difficult an obstacle when they are denied resources to do anything about it. The Eastern front is far more important right now.
As a result, while they haven’t given up, they have in effect pulled back out of the range of Ukrainian troops and positions.
The irony is what makes the river bank and its settlements so easy to hold for the Ukrainians, also prevents them from taking much of an advantage from it. The Russians are making so little effort here, two days ago a Ukrainian flag appeared over central Kozachi Laheri further along the river bank.
The Russians seem to have opted for containment measures rather than eradication. Largely that’s down to the ability to deploy sufficient forces and supply them from Crimea. The airbases in Crimea have become no-go zones, especially now it’s clear that ATACAMS is readily available. Indeed strategically you could argue that Crimea has almost been neutralised and is no longer safe to base anything.
That brings us to the question of the Kerch bridge. One massed ATACMS attack on that and it’s got problems. The Russians must know it. The alternative supply rail route across southern Zaporhizia isn’t ready and runs into sabotage and strikes against the bridges they try to build. It may never be safe enough to use.
 
Only my opinion of course, but I think it’s wildly naive to believe that the US hasn’t implemented strict red lines within the provision of equipment.

After November if Biden wins I’m sure the US will happily see all of Russias economic infrastructure as fair game, but again imo there is no way they’ve provided ATACMS without the clear alignment that they don’t use them before the election to target infrastructure that can affect the western markets.

A contraire, the loss of Russia in the oil market is America's gain, Europe obviously was going to look for more oil and gas from the US as substitute for Russian oil and gas. Indeed the US economy is doing quite well and a fair part is due to the war. It's kinda funny in that aspect that some US conservatives make a big deal out of th e pricetag for supporting Ukraine when in truth much of what they send would otherwise have been decommissioned and the economic gains are so much in industries like oil and arms that are traditional backers of the Republican party, no wonder that the conservatives were eventually to make a U-turn on the matter, for the conservatives it was only really a matter of being utterly contrarion to Biden just for the polarizing sake of it whereas they rather have the honor of having saved on their name.

Its not even just oil and arms. Agriculture and finished goods aswell. Funily enough the economic sanctions even favor China somewhat, as beyond ther fossil fuel industry the western oriented manufacturing industry of russia was like most eastern country's one that is labor intensive rather than capital intensive, thus competing on the metric of cheap labor with producers in Europe, something that now leaves a bit of lost market share for China to fill.
 
A contraire, the loss of Russia in the oil market is America's gain
I mean on a theoretical level of course, but as of right now the US are steadily re-stockpiling their reserves that Biden released last year to tackle rising fuel costs and a large chunk of what they’re buying up will be of Russian origin.

Similarly Europe is still happily gorging itself on Russian oil whilst publicly saying that they’re ‘free’ of reliance upon it, which of course is a half-truth with the flow now simply being Russia - UAE - US/Europe.

If Russia could be truly taken out of the oil business then sure in theory it’s to America’s advantage, but it’s not something that anybody wants to test in an election year.
 

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.