From "The Analyst":
KHERSON FLARES UP AGAIN
Russian commanders have lied repeatedly that the Ukrainian hold over Krynki has long been dealt with. Except it hasn’t and they felt they need to take action against it even though it isn’t really there - quite how commanders explain such a scenario to anyone who asks about what’s going on is a mystery.
This has long been something of a drone war, and the Ukrainians have been winning it here since it began.
The Russians complain about the volume of Ukrainian drones, the superiority of Ukrainian EW, but above all, the ability of the Ukrainians to coordinate with their artillery from the drones - and the resulting hyper-effective targeting using a minimal number of shells.
Aid for Ukraine has now arrived and is starting to have an effect - and the Russians found that out in the last few days. Without air defences in this sector Ukraine can easily use its limited air power and began the delivery of precision guided bombs on HQ sites and ammunition deposits behind the Russian lines. Another top priority has been Russian drone operators and the drone supply depots.
Some of these strikes are said to have come from GLSDB as it faces little interference here from Russian jamming. More were the result of the French supplied Hammer now being delivered.
One of the most successful strikes came after repeated attacks to eliminate a drone operating command post in Kozachi Laheri. Drones had damaged it but the Russians continued to use it assuming the Ukrainian attackers presumed it was no longer operating. Constant monitoring proved otherwise and the French ASM-250 bomb turned the site from a ruin into a pile of dust.
The Russians have long had a problem here. It’s not considered a key front. It doesn’t get much in the way of supplies and
It’s difficult to get supplies to the area in the quantity needed if operations are stepped up. There’s also the defensive mentality in this sector. They see the river as a viable defensive barrier and future border post war. It’s merely a matter of waiting it out. The Ukrainian side of course doesn’t agree at all.
The question longer term is what can either side to to change the situation?
The Russians could if the wanted to. It would take concerted effort and a long men but Ukraine doesn’t have the depth on the south bank to hold it indefinitely. The Russians though are engaged exploring their opportunity it other areas. This just doesn’t matter enough. Yet leaving it untouched still gives Ukraine the means of expanding the foothold - but to do that they need to get more than just infantry over the river in small boats, and even if they did they then have to supply the fuel and ammunition for it. It’s not impossible but it’s not easy, would take months of preparation and act almost like a mini-D-Day. And for that to work you need air dominance and clear skies.
The advantage here of course is that this is the one area that geographically speaking, with their western air bases and proximity to the front, coupled to an air defence and fighter free Crimea, that might eventually be possible.
Slava Ukraini !
