From "The Analyst":
DANGEROUS DEVELOPMENTS IN KHARKIV
I have often said how ridiculous and short term, attacking Russia over the lengthy uncontested land border in Kharkiv oblast has been. I don’t care what the excuse is, it’s been a bad strategy and done without consistency. These border incursions by supposedly free Russian forces, were inevitably going to draw a Russian reaction. The very reason Ukraine did it was the very reason they should not have, not when you are dealing with an autocratic regime.
If you embarrass or humiliate an autocrat enough, a response inevitably comes. They cannot ignore what amounts to little more than an embarrassing military distraction. It simply can’t go unanswered. You might get away with it once. Twice is pushing it. Three times and you’re going to regret it.
That time has come. Fed up with the incursions the Russians have significantly strengthened the border and begun a long range artillery and missile offensive against Kharkiv. It’s become clear to the Ukrainians they have to strengthen their defences and post more troops into the area - right at the time they can afford to do this least. They don’t have the men or artillery to reinforce this sector.
The Russians however have started to ramp up a dramatic increase in their forces.
Extensive networks of Muron-M surveillance towers have appeared. EW systems and counter battery radar, troop concentrations and all the signs of a potential attack being prepared are everywhere.
So much so, that yesterday the panicked Ukrainians decided to take the initiative with an extensive drone and artillery raid against logistics and intelligence gathering areas over the border. What they destroyed - multiple trucks, intel gathering equipment and preparations for stockpiles and assembly areas in one small sector of the front, should be enough to worry anyone.
Now let’s be clear that it could be just a ploy by the Russians to draw off Ukrainian forces, but I don’t think so.
In the last couple of days Russian recon drones have been active and Lancet FPV attack drones successfully hit Ukrainian Russian built Orugan MLRS preparing to defend Kharkiv. The intensity of their operation is growing.
The Russians see a window of opportunity and they’re going to do something before the long delayed US aid starts to arrive. Their window is short. They don’t have to commit vast resources to attack Kharkiv, just enough to engage substantial Ukrainian forces that Ukraine can ill afford to transfer from other areas. That weakens the areas they really want to take such as Chasiv Yar and it gives them a greater chance of breaking the front around Kupiansk- a long held objective.
These stupid raids over the Russian border achieved nothing but draw attention to both sides having a weak spot when only one has the resources to actually exploit it for real gain. The Russians won’t take or try to take Kharkiv, but they are vicious and destructive. If you think the signalling for this attack hasn’t been there you’d be mistaken. For weeks Russian propaganda has been talking of levelling Kharkiv, erasing it from the surface of the earth both as punishment for resisting and as a cultural and educational centre of a people they don’t consider even exist. Solovyev has been talking repeatedly about it and it’s often discussed on other shows. Nothing like that gets talked about unless the government wants it talked about. This type of signalling - to reinforce a decision that’s already been made, is how Russian propaganda works. They prepare their own people - many of whom will have strong links with a city often considered the most Russian in Ukraine, to accept what they plan to do. Destruction is their aim. Destruction and distraction. Sadly it’s looking more and more likely that what was a dead zone and an almost mutually unspoken agreement to leave this front alone, has been broken. Ukraine has itself to blame and that’s the hardest part of all.
They should never have allowed those raids to draw attention to an area they were just as incapable of defending as the Russians were.I pray I am wrong here, I really do. But all the indicators for weeks suggest otherwise. I suspect this may even have been part of the briefing given to House leadership that convinced them to rush the aid package through.
Even if the Russians are creating an elaborate ruse, Ukraine has no choice but to upgrade its defences and draw off valuable manpower and material because they can’t be sure.
Such is war.
Slava Ukraini !
