From "The Analyst":
BORDER ACTION
It certainly seems that the Russian offensive around the Kharkiv front, which has come in through four different points along the east-west section of the border (and the closest to Kharkiv itself) got off to a bad start.
This is a large operation. 50,000 troops are involved, 400 tanks, around 350 armoured vehicles and 900 artillery pieces. According to the Ukrainians they knew these forces were being assembled for months.
The Russians even built a new airstrip.
Some of this equipment has been taken from new production but much of it has been redeployed from other sectors of the front - which is why so many of the very active areas have become noticeable for the drop in activity, or an over reliance on infantry.
Now, according to the sources available, while things may have looked bad at the start the Ukrainians knew it was coming. Military intelligence predicted the date range, knew the approximate directions of attack. The attacks on the city infrastructure and defences- including HQ’s and SAM systems made it clear they were coming.
At least 35,000 Russian troops were allocated to the Kharkiv border with rest in other areas. The commander of the Russian forces is the same one who commanded the 2022 attacks and withdrawals.
The attack opened with strikes on bridges and dams to cut off supplies for Ukrainian reinforcements. Heavy shelling and glide bombs of target areas aimed to suppress Ukrainian fire. The small town of Ovchanske was destroyed overnight by the bombarding forces.
The Russians quickly advanced over the border claiming occupation of four settlements - Ukraine insists these are in a grey zone, in an area in front of their defences but inside the border.
Ovchanske is their first target town. About the size of Chasiv Yar it sits 5km south of the border so is well inside their immediate striking distance. Theoretically, it should not be so easy to take.
The problem with so many Russian forces being densely packed is they provide an easy targeting zone for the drone operators - in this case the defenders of the 42nd Motorised Brigade. These forces were deployed here specifically to face the Russian threat.
Experienced drone operators soon caused the invaders problems - with verified video showing groups of up to 4-5 APC’s quickly taken out as they crossed the border. This is where the video of Russians blowing themselves up occurred when they were injured and realised there was no likely evacuation coming. Clearly they’d been heavily indoctrinated before embarking on the operation.
Once again the Russians use the same old tactics (hardly suprising from the same previously defeated commander) - sending group after group along the same paths - right up to the spot the previous group was destroyed at. It makes the defending drone operators lives so much easier!
The Russians also quickly stopped over the border, parking up to deploy troops or wait for support, expecting no resistance. Ideal drone fodder.
The Russian intent is believed to be to try and create a 20km buffer zone to prevent further Ukrainian incursions and move their artillery further from the border, while giving the Russians something to do by making their pet hate - the city and people of Kharkiv, whom they regard (being a largely Russian ethnic population) as traitors, the target of their artillery bombardments. It also thins Ukrainian forces from their positions in other areas and absorbs reserves making them unavailable elsewhere.
Overall however, I remain convinced that repeated stupid Ukrainian incursions into Russia in these areas was the catalyst for this attack. The Russians were clearly not interested in spreading the war along a longer front but those attacks humiliated the Russian government and drew an inevitable response. It’s a lack of strategic foresight on Ukraine’s part that has come painfully home to them.
The view on the ground to individual soldiers must be infuriating for the Ukrainians. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
It looks like they weren’t ready and yet the viability of defending the border itself was low, defences need depth and that’s what they created. Despite the scale of the Russian attack it hasn’t been a blitzkrieg by any means. They over-signalled their intentions days in advance and their troop build up was no secret.
The real question is what is their objective? Buffer zone? Forcing the repositioning of Ukrainian forces? Kharkiv itself seems way beyond them, but forcing a wave of civilians to evacuate and cause internal mayhem as 1 million people evacuate isn’t impossible. Misery, after all, is what Russians are so good at creating.
How this attack pans out in the next few days will be critical. The key thing here is it’s not fixed in place and it’s very mobile - and that means it can be dealt with the same way - and while daring, a mobile counter attack at this stage is still viable if it can be mounted.
I suspect though that the Ukrainian forces will try and do what they can from behind their defence lines and attrit the Russians from their. The danger then is the Russians dig in and getting them out again becomes the problem all over again.
Slava Ukraini !
