From "The Analyst:"
KHARKIV: RUSSIANS HELD
After advancing around 8km into Ukraine the Russians have largely been held back. This is a combination of reserves, defence lines, sufficient depth to be able to fire at them with the weapons provided under the terms of use rules enforced by donors, and the rapid relocation of elite brigades.
The Russians have taken about half of Voschansk on the right side of the river and have reached the outskirts of Liptsy on the left side. Liptsy matters because it’s a point on the main Kharkiv road from Russia that they can use for most artillery to shell the city. As they seem obsessed with raising in to the ground this is their prime target.
During the initial attack the Ukrainian Border Guards - small groups intended to identify the attackers and assess their strength, before retreating to the first defence line, managed to hold their positions for as long as 8 hours, providing invaluable intelligence and a major nuisance to the Russian advance.
This may have allowed the Russians to take the first four villages, but the defence plan was always to sacrifice these - there was no viable way to defend them.
The border guards fight was exceptional and they outperformed everyone’s expectations - true heroes. The vast majority successfully reached the first line of defence in front of Liptsy having bought valuable time.
Drone operators of the 42nd Brigade once again showed their incredible expertise as they smashed up wave after wave of Russian armour - the Russians making it easier by following the same attack route time after time as they always do. There is a mass of video evidence showing their success.
The Russians are still held up at the initial defence line that was designed to hold them back for Ukrainian reserves to reach the First Defence Line which is still 3km south, which tells you something about how tenaciously the Ukrainians are fighting the orcs. You can’t help but get the feeling the Russians expected this to be much easier and quicker. They certainly tried to use a more combined forces type approach to this attack. Instead it’s become much slower and more of a slog than they planned for.
Russian advance infantry forces that reached Liptsy were quickly mopped up and many surrendered.
The Vovchansk front had the same plan as Liptsy. The first border villages could not be held and a fighting withdrawal became necessary. Vovchansk however is much closer to the border and it was inevitable with the weight of Russian forces pressing here, they got into the town.
Another issue for the defenders was the open fields here left nowhere to hide and there was open ground everywhere with no defensive positions.
This meant they had to pull back - but they also had the same problem with being able to fire at Russians only on Ukrainian territory. For that you need space.
Yet again the border guards performed an extraordinary fighting retreat keeping the Russians out of the town for as long as they could while reinforcements arrived.
The main defence line here is not in the northern part of the city, but south of the centre on the southern banks of the river Vovcha.
It’s taken the Russians a week to move just 3.5km and they’re nowhere near taking Vovchansk. They’re facing mobile and flexible defences that make their lives a misery, despite the fact they have unlimited air support from glide bombs.
The trouble is the gliders only work on fixed positions and the Ukrainians are keeping themselves mobile to harass the attackers.
Still the big issue remains not being able to hit Russian supplies and reinforcements over the border.
Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State sort of implied that the Americans weren’t stopping the Ukrainians from doing what was needed, using the phrase ‘it’s
Ukraine’s decision on how to prosecute the war’. Was that permission or wasn’t it? Nobody knew. The State Department spokesperson when asked said ‘there’s been no change to the United States position’. So we still don’t know and assume the use of weapons over the border is a no-go.
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With a week now past we have a much better picture of what the Russians are doing and how it’s going.
We also have encouraging signs that Ukrainian forces everywhere are getting the ammunition they need. Several low key comments and images indicate the 155mm shells are flowing as are the small arms rounds.
Cluster munitions may be vile as a concept but they have been massively effective in this war where Russia has such a huge manpower advantage.
Overall a brave and intense defence by Ukraine that has shown consummate skill and courage - and frankly a great deal of very effective and well communicated staff level planning.
Things don’t go as well as this has for the defenders without rigorous staff work and everyone knowing what was meant to happen. The problems were always about how much land to give to defend successfully given the geography, the weight of attack, and the restrictions on where they could fire. A week into this and I think Ukraine has a lot to be proud of.
The question is what will the Russians do with the troops stationed further around the border in Kursk?
Slava Ukraini !
