From "The Analyst":
STRATEGIC WAR RAMPS UP DRAMATICALLY
There has been so much news, so much information and so much has changed in the past month I think some of the key strategic changes have passed us by. The Ukrainian acquisition of ATACMS in unitary warhead and cluster munitions types especially, has changed the face of the war and I don’t think we fully appreciate quite how many missiles were used and targets hit.
Last month I wrote a piece on why both sides were trying to press the other into withdrawing their air defence systems back into their rear areas to give, in the Russians case, safe operating zones for glide bomb attacks from various SU-27/30/34 and ground attack strikes using Su-25. In the Ukrainian case they needed Russia to pull theirs away to allow their own Su-25 strikes, Mig-29’s using JDAMs and to stop the interception of ATACMS and MLRS/HIMARS missiles.
Ukraine won that battle. Russia withdrew its air defence systems into Russia to defend strategic air fields, oil refineries, weapons manufacturing and key bases, all hammered by drone strikes.
It left the occupied zones almost undefended. And even when they were ATACMS changed everything.
The strike on Belbeck airbase in Crimea was one of the most significant.
This site is huge, and the result was awesome. Four S-400 system launchers and their command and radar systems were incinerated.
At least six aircraft including two Kinzhal launching Mig-31’s were destroyed. A series of domed radars on the hill nearby were destroyed, the entire fuel supply system for the airbase burnt to ashes, control towers and admin buildings wiped out. It was in effect rendered useless for months if it can ever be made usable again as long as the war continues. Jankoy in central Crimea was also rendered useless as an air base. The Russian command and control centre for air defences was destroyed in south Crimea, including the commander himself.
Kerch bridge air defences have seemingly been abandoned - long range over land attacking Neptune missiles struck targets in the port and rendered the rail and car ferry services unusable. ATACMS destroyed the support infrastructure for those ferries and a drone hit the oil storage site on the Russian side that feeds Crimea with refined diesel and petroleum. An ATACMS sank a 1 year old Russian Kalibr capable missile frigate. Naval drones hit and sank patrol corvettes inside the Sevastopol safe zone, a minesweeper was sunk off Sevastopol.
Further around the Sea of Azov near Berdiansk port an attack by as many as 15 ATACMS rendered a command HQ, ammo depot and docking area the Russians had been quietly using and improving, to dust.
Over 160 troops were killed by a cluster ATACMS strike in a training ground deep in Donetsk.
A major maintenance site on the far side of Luhansk oblast near Russia - out of HIMARS range - was finally destroyed. Massive explosions were seen for two days. At least two additional ammo depots were taken out.
It’s believed as many as 100 army officer trainees died when ATACMS destroyed a site being used for training in eastern Luhansk.
Ukrainian drones hit airforce training sites twice inside Russia. The hit the Tula drone factory, knocked out two Voronezh-M BMEWS level radars with OTH-B capabilities. They hit several oil storage sites, and at least three refineries including one that had just been partly repaired in Northern Russia. Then there was the sea drone and air drone strike in Tuapse refinery, the oil export port and the naval port near Novorossisyk.
There were at least another 25 drone strikes inside Russia known to have occurred but target unnamed.
We have seen a massive increase in Ukrainian strikes at the strategic level. Drones that have reached 1,600km into Russia, drones with warheads now reaching 250kg -
In effect a converted FAB-250
bomb Ukraine hasn’t been able to use as it had no aircraft.
And on top of all of this, the process of integrating F-16 into use has started. CONTINUES..
CONTINUES…
Tell me that the list above isn’t impressive?! The scale of the strikes and their success must have the Russians deeply concerned - this is just the start.
Once the Level-1 targets are gone they will start on the Level-2. Rail junctions, railheads, logistics centres, backup sites, it will be endless. Slowly but surely the war is coming home to Russian commanders and their forces - being behind the scenes safely out of range? Not any more.
A stunning month for Ukraine and its strategic war on Russia. You can bet they never bargained for this when they started their 7 day SMO!
Slava Ukraini !
