You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter feedmpenzaandhewillscore
- Start date
dickie davies
Well-Known Member
I think 'deep" is referring to anything that is linked to nuclear, such as early warning radarUkraine can:
Conduct counter-battery fire (including MLRS/Himars).
Intercept Russian missiles over Russian territory.
Intercept Russian aviation, which launches bombs in the direction of Ukrainian territory.
Strike at Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.
Strike Russian ammo warehouses and logistics centers with artillery and missiles (HIMARS) on the other side of the border.
They are not allowed to strike military targets "deep" inside Russia.
They are not allowed to strke Russian Aircraft that is "stationed on the ground"
What is considered "DEEP"?
Slava Ukraini.
mosssideblue
Well-Known Member
Siberia :)Ukraine can:
Conduct counter-battery fire (including MLRS/Himars).
Intercept Russian missiles over Russian territory.
Intercept Russian aviation, which launches bombs in the direction of Ukrainian territory.
Strike at Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.
Strike Russian ammo warehouses and logistics centers with artillery and missiles (HIMARS) on the other side of the border.
They are not allowed to strike military targets "deep" inside Russia.
They are not allowed to strke Russian Aircraft that is "stationed on the ground"
What is considered "DEEP"?
Slava Ukraini.
lee_wsm
Well-Known Member
Sounds like trying to avoid hitting largely populated civilian areasThe use of German weapons inside Russia.....No more than 40km.
Slava Ukraini.
dickie davies
Well-Known Member
40k is for hitting troop build ups close to the border, almost an exclusion zoneSounds like trying to avoid hitting largely populated civilian areas
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
WHAT THE RESTRICTIONS BEING LIFTED MEANS FOR RUSSIA
The Kharkiv offensive was based largely on the assumption that Russian forces would be safe on their side of the border - indeed all action along this frontier zone that’s been effectively neutral for two years now, will no longer benefit from the bonus border impunity zone it had up until today.
That makes any other concentrated force deployment a valid target. It may even make the situation more tenable to expand the front any further, given that one of its biggest benefits has been removed. The western decision to change its mind is as much about deterring a further incursion as it is about stopping the current one.
What will it mean in terms of depth of action?
Russia will be more motivated to expand its territorial advances to push back the longer range missiles like StormShadow. But can it do so? Not enough to make a difference.
It means areas that were once immune to attack - logistics and command positions - no longer are.
Add to this the Ukrainians huge advance in getting drones to travel as far as 2000km and carry 250kg warheads, for which Russia seems completely incapable of defending from, then the barrage of ATACMS, which has devastated Crimean bases and defences so successfully they seem now to have nothing effective operating there.
Russian air defences are spread so thinly and their ability to build more is painfully slow, in many ways they have ceased to exist across much of the front.
There’s also the fact that this is unquestionably part of pushing Russian air defences back - out of the way of being able to intercept F-16 patrols when they get up and running. With an AEWC aircraft due to go operational (I suspect more will come), the west is helping Ukraine carve out an air defence pocket to keep the Russians away, allowing F-16 to operate more freely.
By using ground missiles to hit deeper into Russia and push its air defences back, more space is created. Pushing Russian VKS fighters away reduces their bombing capability, a bonus for the frontline. F-16’s will only add to that protection zone.
Finally this will start to even the scales.
The question is what can Russia do about it?
In the immediate short term, not much except cry about it. The may make a lot of noise but we seem to have overcome our fears. Putin only has one more level to go to and I just don’t think even he sees that as logical. The Chinese would react badly and the Americans have made it clear Russia would suffer a devastating conventional counter attack if they did go so far. But other than a civilian target, using a nuke has no real benefit or follow up position. It would be a demonstration of intent, sure, but it’s more likely to end up as the biggest mistake he ever makes. Once that genie is out of the bottle all bets are off and he must know it. It’s just not worth it.
So he will begin asymmetric operations at a new level. Election interference, disinformation and cyber attacks seem inevitable. Even that is a two way street if it gets out of hand.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries have pushed the Russians into a position where they have classified their oil refinery production figures, so the scale of production loss can’t be measured. It won’t stop the Ukrainians attacking the refineries.
Airbases and logistics, oil and gas, barracks, command posts, ammo dumps, they’re all on the table now. The gloves are off at last and both sides have equal opportunities. Russia has been lucky up to now. We were afraid.
Now we aren’t.
WHAT THE RESTRICTIONS BEING LIFTED MEANS FOR RUSSIA
The Kharkiv offensive was based largely on the assumption that Russian forces would be safe on their side of the border - indeed all action along this frontier zone that’s been effectively neutral for two years now, will no longer benefit from the bonus border impunity zone it had up until today.
That makes any other concentrated force deployment a valid target. It may even make the situation more tenable to expand the front any further, given that one of its biggest benefits has been removed. The western decision to change its mind is as much about deterring a further incursion as it is about stopping the current one.
What will it mean in terms of depth of action?
Russia will be more motivated to expand its territorial advances to push back the longer range missiles like StormShadow. But can it do so? Not enough to make a difference.
It means areas that were once immune to attack - logistics and command positions - no longer are.
Add to this the Ukrainians huge advance in getting drones to travel as far as 2000km and carry 250kg warheads, for which Russia seems completely incapable of defending from, then the barrage of ATACMS, which has devastated Crimean bases and defences so successfully they seem now to have nothing effective operating there.
Russian air defences are spread so thinly and their ability to build more is painfully slow, in many ways they have ceased to exist across much of the front.
There’s also the fact that this is unquestionably part of pushing Russian air defences back - out of the way of being able to intercept F-16 patrols when they get up and running. With an AEWC aircraft due to go operational (I suspect more will come), the west is helping Ukraine carve out an air defence pocket to keep the Russians away, allowing F-16 to operate more freely.
By using ground missiles to hit deeper into Russia and push its air defences back, more space is created. Pushing Russian VKS fighters away reduces their bombing capability, a bonus for the frontline. F-16’s will only add to that protection zone.
Finally this will start to even the scales.
The question is what can Russia do about it?
In the immediate short term, not much except cry about it. The may make a lot of noise but we seem to have overcome our fears. Putin only has one more level to go to and I just don’t think even he sees that as logical. The Chinese would react badly and the Americans have made it clear Russia would suffer a devastating conventional counter attack if they did go so far. But other than a civilian target, using a nuke has no real benefit or follow up position. It would be a demonstration of intent, sure, but it’s more likely to end up as the biggest mistake he ever makes. Once that genie is out of the bottle all bets are off and he must know it. It’s just not worth it.
So he will begin asymmetric operations at a new level. Election interference, disinformation and cyber attacks seem inevitable. Even that is a two way street if it gets out of hand.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries have pushed the Russians into a position where they have classified their oil refinery production figures, so the scale of production loss can’t be measured. It won’t stop the Ukrainians attacking the refineries.
Airbases and logistics, oil and gas, barracks, command posts, ammo dumps, they’re all on the table now. The gloves are off at last and both sides have equal opportunities. Russia has been lucky up to now. We were afraid.
Now we aren’t.
St.Pauli support
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 17 Feb 2010
- Messages
- 4,833
That's more than enough considering PH2000 and Patriot can't even reach that far as not being located right at the border.The use of German weapons inside Russia.....No more than 40km.
Slava Ukraini.
Generally these stupid restriction talks are addressing the voters for the next elections where ever, not russia.