Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIAN DISASTER AT CHASIV YAR

By far the biggest news is the Russian offensive south of Chasiv Yar that was designed to push west then up and behind Ukrainian forces in the Canal District.
They used the forest to build up two assault groups, one to strike north and one to strike west. This is the section of the canal that goes under the hill in a tunnel with forest above it, and the only place the Russians can cross it with vehicles of any weight.
This move would let them advance into the western forest and then north to the more weakly defended residential areas. If they captured the Novi residential district they would cut Ukrainian supplies into the canal district and force them out.
The Russian idea on paper sounds fine, but the reality of it is more complex. For one it’s almost completely road and track free so the idea of vehicles in support quickly becomes mute. The area can only really be traversed by infantry and even then only slowly.
Add to that the crossing between the forests isn’t forested itself leaving a wide open area to traverse on foot in full view.
So the Russian troops on their way to begin their attacks were constantly under attack from drones and artillery. The Russians also didn’t seem to realise that they couldn’t use air strikes because they had no way of distinguishing their forces or their location in the density of the forest.
Despite it all the Russians carried out the attack, getting to the outskirts of the Novi District.
The Ukrainians used reconnaissance drones to map out the path the Russians were taking, and quietly kept their own forces in the forest, slowly preparing to act as they got into position.
Once ready and guided by drones, the Ukrainians pounced on Russian infantry groups one at a time, eliminating them in surprise attacks.
The Russians lost hundreds of men in the attacks, and even Russian sources say they gave up trying.
Having failed moving west - and bizarrely not having launched both attempts simultaneously, the other Russian group attacked northward. Again they had to cross open terrain and quickly lost most of their manpower and equipment. A T-90M assault tank, three BMD’s and an armoured car were lost in short order.
The whole operation was carried out by supposedly elite airborne forces. The Russians lost almost everything they sent in.
Having failed, they returned to their expensive attacks on the front and direct assaults which drain their manpower in one sided attrition.
Poor planning and lack of coordination, preparation and a failure to understand the terrain they were operating in still shows how incompetent many Russian commanders are. If it’s not outright incompetence it’s utter disregard for the costs of making these decisions in terms of manpower - which they have low regard for anyway. Yet when they are now clearly running low on tanks and armoured vehicles they waste them in piecemeal operations. That suggests the truth about supply of these vehicles isn’t being communicated down the line from above - presumably because nobody wants that known. Satellites tell us that the days of vast Soviet reserves are over - they have used them up.
It seems increasingly clear that Russia must rely on its only real advantage- endless manpower.
Ukrainian patience and planning, preparation and thoroughness again provided a victory over potentially overwhelming manpower - expert use of drones and tactical surprise wrecked this Russian operation.

Slava Ukraini !
 
It kind of depends how big the pie is at the start of the conflict (2014 or 2922) it's around 11% since 2022 - or around 18.7 % since 2014.
I was just thinking about making my dinner and now meat and tatter pie is on the hit list should i have 11% or 18.7%
 
I get that feeling, was just enjoying the debate a bit, until he started avoiding the questions with silly claims that the West wanted to destroy China.
..and the 'you believe it is collapsing'!
Absolute Bollox.

China isn't collapsing, it's flexing it's military muscles after being the economic production engine of the world for the past 20+ years.
It's Navy is overhauling at the rate of over 2x new large surface ships per month. It's airforce is producing some serious kit. It's army doesn't have to worry about Russian border, infact it could probably extend "china" northwards without much issues. It only has to worry about India, and they are both nutters for fighting over a glacier.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War .
Maybe the new armed forces are untested, but its prodding, probing and annexing in the Spratley & Paracell islands using this armed muscle, which are miles away from Alvin's definition of what the borders of "China" are.

China in the past decade, since dragging the rusting uncompleted hulk of a Russian carrier from (ironically) Ukraine and finishing it, has become a 'blue water' navy, ie it has the power to project and protect force across an ocean. This is the equivalent of the US navy, no other Navy (without other countries assistance) has that capability currently.

The push by China into seas which traditionally (i'm talking millennia not centuries) is what the US (and it's allies are concerned about), hence the new AUKUS alliance between Australia, UK & US, due to the aggressive naval expansion of China.
 
..and the 'you believe it is collapsing'!
Absolute Bollox.

China isn't collapsing, it's flexing it's military muscles after being the economic production engine of the world for the past 20+ years.
It's Navy is overhauling at the rate of over 2x new large surface ships per month. It's airforce is producing some serious kit. It's army doesn't have to worry about Russian border, infact it could probably extend "china" northwards without much issues. It only has to worry about India, and they are both nutters for fighting over a glacier.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War .
Maybe the new armed forces are untested, but its prodding, probing and annexing in the Spratley & Paracell islands using this armed muscle, which are miles away from Alvin's definition of what the borders of "China" are.

China in the past decade, since dragging the rusting uncompleted hulk of a Russian carrier from (ironically) Ukraine and finishing it, has become a 'blue water' navy, ie it has the power to project and protect force across an ocean. This is the equivalent of the US navy, no other Navy (without other countries assistance) has that capability currently.

The push by China into seas which traditionally (i'm talking millennia not centuries) is what the US (and it's allies are concerned about), hence the new AUKUS alliance between Australia, UK & US, due to the aggressive naval expansion of China.
I think you have responded to the wrong poster! I never said I thought China was collapsing, or even that I wanted it to collapse.
 
A giant politically in so far as they have nuclear weapons and sit on the UN Security Council. That's it I'm afraid. The west has shown that it can do without Russias resources and did so remarkably quickly.
But at a big cost. US now making up for it with biggest drilling programme ever seen. No doubt they are eying exports to Europe. Germany burning coal. LPG which Britain and Netherlands rely on is limited long term. Europe is still buying Russian oil via UAE, although US has threatened secondary sanctions. Turkey reducing trade with Russia.
Where Russia went wrong was not exploiting markets to the east and in Africa. They have limited refining capacity and Ukraine has targeted that. China has muscled in but the ‘Road’ strategy is failing as Clients cannot pay their bills.
As you say, Europe has abandoned them and they have nothing to replace that market. Sales to India and China at big discounts dropping off and largely paid for in currency Russia cannot use. Rupees are not convertible!
Still a big restructuring of world energy markets to come.
 
Sorry , Russia is the biggest oil & gas exporter to China.
Forget those cheap plastic shits, the "TRADE" between You and me, OK?
You people in the west do not have much common sense of "geopolitcs".
Our relationship is fucking important, I don't want to watch City matchs on some fucking pirated websites.
Good bye sir, See you next time.
Er ……Russian exports of energy to China are tiny.
 
It's Maths.
It's also 'Simple Maths' to know that if we keep letting Putin do what he wants he WILL eventually attack the Baltics (or some other NATO state) that will either collapse NATO or bring about a war between Russia and NATO.
History does repeat itself you know.
We're actually at undeclarrd war with them, and have been for a long while with Cyber attacks, Jamming Commercial GPS around Kaliningrad etc. I know, from my companies security logs, that Russian, Chinese, North Korean and Iranian organisations try to break in every day.
So stand-up to them now, or let them win in Ukraine and have to fight them later. It's pretty much the same time frame too.
So stop talking bollocks.
At this point Russia is close to maxing out. Apart from full conscription and firing nukes they don't have much more to give. They can't take and hold Ukraine. Its proven that their military is dog shit.

So I don't see the ww3 threat as that realistic. If Putin went full crazy and tried it then it would be over very quickly for him.
 

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