From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN ATTACK SPIKED BY UKRAINIANS
Next in line for the Russians as they approach the town of Konstantinivka - the key to trying to take Vuhledar from the north, is Kharakov, and Paraskovika a much smaller settlement.
The Ukrainians weren’t ready to just let the Russians steamroller over this settlement - they have been fighting a continuous rearguard action as they slowly retreat up this long chain of towns and villages along the river. Having lost Novomikhailivka after a long fight lasting three months, they took the initiative. The Russians could not be allowed to build up another mass of infantry to start the next battle.
The plan involved making sure Russian artillery was not there to suppress defensive fire and force the Ukrainian infantry into early withdrawal. Drones searched and destroyed while others gave Ukrainian artillery accurate locations.
Several D-30 artillery systems were destroyed - these are old refurbished guns from the 1950’s if Russian or produced by N.Korea. The northern hunt group managed to destroy a handful of SPG’s, mostly while they were redeploying, along with more D-30’s. Further drone strikes targeted ammo dumps and supply vehicles making sure the Russian operation was thoroughly undermined. At least ten supply trucks were taken out by FPV’s in the open territory around captured Novomikhailivka.
The next stage involved undermining the Russians as they prepared to attack, in the frontlines and their reserves in the rear.
There are so many video clips of drones and artillery hitting Russians in trenches, on the march, ‘safe’ houses and so on it’s hard to keep up.
It’s rare to see the Russians so exposed and found so easily.
One fact that can’t be ignored - and I know I keep repeating it, but it’s really important to appreciate how deeply this is now apparent - lack of armour such as APC’s or IFV’s is starkly obvious. There is so little of it that the Russians have begun using groups of five or so men on motorbikes to rush at speed from the rear areas to the front. A drone going off with a shrapnel warhead in the middle of a group of bikers who have no protection is messy and not nice to look at.
The Russians realised the Ukrainians had gotten the jump on them and decided to send in tanks and troops towards Paraskovika. Russian tactics normally involve two tanks, around four or five APC/IFV and 20-30 soldiers. These attacks were 1 tank, 1 or 2 APC’s and no more than 5-10 soldiers at most.
Clearly Ukrainian preparations had reduced the combat effectiveness of the Russian assaults.
ATGM’s and drones quickly finished them off. One larger attack with several armoured vehicles was spotted on a road in a line and garnered such a heavy artillery attack those that weren’t destroyed turned back and fled. New artillery shells from the US made the difference.
Just to crown the success of the Ukrainian operation, a large number of Russians took shelter inside a three story mansion - only to have the entire thing with all of them in it, levelled with a Ukrainian glide bomb delivered by Mig-29. Not so good being on the receiving end is it orcs?
Russian forces across the frontline seem to me to be in a sorry state. They certainly have the manpower, that is hard to dispute.
What they lack very clearly now, is artillery on anything like the scale they once had, (though they have plenty of ammunition), and there’s a clear sense that they have a real problem supplying APC/IFV type vehicles.
I see much of their attacking is based around infantry infiltration - and they can get quite good at this if the terrain works in their favour. But the Ukrainians are starting to understand how they do it and identifying where they prefer to affect it. So countermeasures are getting more effective too. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
Overall as we approach summer, I am, to use that sidestepping phrase beloved by PR writers, “cautiously optimistic”, that the Russians have run out of steam and a summer offensive on a large scale has been, in effect, frittered away on multiple fronts of attack without really gaining anything substantial, and without the capacity to do so again this year until the autumn.
Western aid has reached a good flow just as Russian capacity has withered through attrition. The pendulum has swung back the other way, but not far enough to allow Ukraine to indulge in an offensive.
A stalemate over the summer looks set to be the name of the game. Any Russian effort to extend their offensive in the north will likely be a major mistake.
Ukraine is absorbing almost 500,000 men this year as conscription kicks in. Training and deploying and arming them is huge undertaking. It will go a long way to refreshing their long term survival and creating the opportunity to eventually fight back. As long as western aid keeps coming.
I also have to acknowledge another aspect of the war in the Kharkiv front.
The Russians knew as fast as we did that the Americans had granted permission to use HIMARS/MLRS against their forces over the border.
What did they do about it? Nothing it seems. At least 1 S-300 system south of Belgorod was quickly incinerated - believed to be the unit that fired on Kharkiv civilians - and an S-400 system at the airbase north of Belgorod was filmed in flames.
Strikes across the region on depots and storage sites have been ongoing. A long overdue and essential series of actions.
Slava Ukraini !