Big news from the Analyst:
RUSSIA WITHDRAWS MILITARY FORCES FROM CRIMEA
Russian Southern Command has ordered the withdrawal of all Russian air defences from the peninsula. Troops, equipment and the families of stationed troops have been ordered to withdraw to the Krasnodar region.
It appears that ATACMS has created such a dilemma for them that they can no longer justify the losses relative to the defence capabilities.
Removing defences means the targets become easy to hit, so the only conclusion is that Crimea is being in effect, mostly demilitarised. That means air and naval forces will no longer be stationed there unless they are prepared to take the risk. Some army units will remain as garrisons.
The air defence units, according to the partisan resistance forces who acquired the information which has since been verified, claim that the air defence units are being moved to Belgorod Oblast, where they can be used to prevent Ukrainian air strikes, a recent new fact of life the Russians are seriously upset with.
This decision is huge. It’s a de facto acceptance that Ukraine has won the battle to demilitarise Crimea and Russia has accepted it.
The consequences of this are even more significant. It means that the Kherson front is even more dangerous and difficult to defend without support from Crimea.
The other massive signal is how much of Russian air defence has been lost through attrition and that they have nowhere near the capacity needed to replace it. The costs alone run into hundreds of billions of dollars, and two decades or more of build time has been lost.
Russia is being forced to do something it’s never really had to do in the past - prioritise.
It further shows us that there is a fundamental problem within Russia’s military capabilities and its overall strategy. Shortages of equipment, inability to replace it, changing defensive capabilities, and needs that can’t be addressed because nobody even imagined they would be needed. The war was never meant to go on like this.
By any means what Russia is doing by in effect, neutralising Crimea as an operational hub is extraordinary. It’s both an admission of operational defeat and an indication that all is very much not well within the Russian military.
@ukrainejournal