Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scottyboi said:
Big news from the Analyst:

RUSSIA WITHDRAWS MILITARY FORCES FROM CRIMEA

Russian Southern Command has ordered the withdrawal of all Russian air defences from the peninsula. Troops, equipment and the families of stationed troops have been ordered to withdraw to the Krasnodar region.
It appears that ATACMS has created such a dilemma for them that they can no longer justify the losses relative to the defence capabilities.
Removing defences means the targets become easy to hit, so the only conclusion is that Crimea is being in effect, mostly demilitarised. That means air and naval forces will no longer be stationed there unless they are prepared to take the risk. Some army units will remain as garrisons.
The air defence units, according to the partisan resistance forces who acquired the information which has since been verified, claim that the air defence units are being moved to Belgorod Oblast, where they can be used to prevent Ukrainian air strikes, a recent new fact of life the Russians are seriously upset with.
This decision is huge. It’s a de facto acceptance that Ukraine has won the battle to demilitarise Crimea and Russia has accepted it.
The consequences of this are even more significant. It means that the Kherson front is even more dangerous and difficult to defend without support from Crimea.
The other massive signal is how much of Russian air defence has been lost through attrition and that they have nowhere near the capacity needed to replace it. The costs alone run into hundreds of billions of dollars, and two decades or more of build time has been lost.
Russia is being forced to do something it’s never really had to do in the past - prioritise.
It further shows us that there is a fundamental problem within Russia’s military capabilities and its overall strategy. Shortages of equipment, inability to replace it, changing defensive capabilities, and needs that can’t be addressed because nobody even imagined they would be needed. The war was never meant to go on like this.
By any means what Russia is doing by in effect, neutralising Crimea as an operational hub is extraordinary. It’s both an admission of operational defeat and an indication that all is very much not well within the Russian military.

@ukrainejournal
Click to expand...
This is amazing. Fundamental problems in Russia have forced them to effectively give up the very first territory they seized. Is the tide turning? Expert response please.
 
From "The Analyst":

OVERVIEW: WHY KHARKIV HAS TRANSFORMED THE WAR

The strategic implications of Russia’s Kharkiv offensive are playing out at speed.
It has been a month. In that time the Russians, to make the attack possible, transferred about 30,000 troops from their 90,000 force on the Kherson front.
Recognising this and intelligence informing Ukraine of where they were going, they transferred the 36th Marine Brigade and around half of the elite drone battalion Magyars Birds to the same front, so that there was an immediately available force, coupled to units of the 47th Brigade. These formed the backbone of the defence along with units already there.
With the Ukrainian Marines largely withdrawn the Russians made a disastrous effort to retake the islands in the Dnepr Delta in Kherson and failed at high costs in men and machines over several weeks. And despite all of that they still haven’t been able to occupy Krynky because Ukraine has such dominant command of the heights on the other side of the river.
Once the offensive was under way in Kharkiv the Russian decision was quickly and clearly realised to have been premature.
Two things had been weighed in their judgement in favour of going early: they were afraid the Ukrainians had rumbled what they were up to and would be too ready to resist, and American aid flows were likely to speed up and change the dynamic.
In fact it was already too late on both counts. The Ukrainians had every aspect of the attack covered and knew what they would have to do - both from intel and reconnaissance. The aid was already arriving. So even when they made the decision to act the Russians were unaware both of their assumptions (and what’s the golden rule? Assume nothing!) were already outdated. The attack therefore was ordered based on false evidence.
The change in rules of engagement and use for western weapons came as a shock. Even though it could easily have been predicted and dealt with, the behind the lines devastation which was rapid and severe, changed the frontline dynamic completely.
The situation with Ukrainian aircraft operating against Russian forces and the missile strikes behind the lines meant that lost air defences needed to be replaced urgently.
That resulted in the transfer of air defences from Crimea still under way, and the effective neutralisation of Crimea as a military base area. A strategic victory of immense significance in the longer term.
Add to that the rolling need to extract other forces from areas along the rest of the front to prevent the Kharkiv retreats from becoming catastrophic defeats, reducing the effectiveness of other operations and we have a strategic own goal of staggeringly huge proportions.
The whole purpose of the Kharkiv attacks was to force the Ukrainian side to withdraw key units from the Luhansk/Donbas to enable Russian forces to make advances there.
Instead the Russian offensive in Kharkiv has been so disastrous that it’s become the main event and its own existence - which any good strategic commander would have seen - has no purpose now. They should have withdrawn and declared it a raid in punishment for the Ukrainian raids into Belgorod and saved face. But they were too arrogant to do even that.
Once the permissions to strike behind the lines into Russia itself were given, rather than accept that was a reason to stop and withdraw, Russian commanders then decided to stay and play right into the trap. They doubled down and under a rain of HIMARS strikes and artillery tried to push reinforcements into the front, only to watch them exploded and droned out of existence. With supplies cut and reinforcements reduced to a trickle, Ukrainians have advanced on the Russian lines and retaken most of Vovchansk and much of the Liptsy front.
The distraction has become the main event and Russia has no means to create an alternative to distract from it.
CONTINUES…

Crimea has been stripped of air defences and rendered militarily useless, the Kherson front has been weakened and made more vulnerable and Russian forces are stretched to do more than skirmish elsewhere.
And Ukraine has managed to sustain and defend and then reverse the Russian attack.
At what point is this not a massively decisive point in the war? It’s revealed more than we could have ever imagined about Russia - especially its lack of armour, reduced air defence capability and the fact that despite recruiting 30,000 men a month, its profligate misuse of human life and the unpreparedness of its forces results in poor quality results. We have long known it but it’s reached a point where Russian losses are outstripping their manpower capabilities.
There’s no question in my mind that even if the frontline situation changed even slightly, for a few days in Russian favour, it won’t last. The Kharkiv offensive by any measure is a disastrous operation. The only sensible way out is to withdraw and avoid anymore losses. Accept it was a mistake and move on. But they won’t.
Ukraine has been lucky and ingenious in equal measure. Its strategy to defend the front was vitally important and it worked. Timing was perfectly lined up to maximise their opportunities. Outstanding preparation and staff work created an exemplary environment to ensure they stopped the Russians. I don’t think much of what followed was intended, but a consequence of getting it right from the start.
Rarely has a single battle zone affected the war so widely - and that’s the takeaway from this. This small zone of combat has affected the entire front and more significantly, stretched deep behind it.
This is an important moment. Savour it.

Slava Ukraini !
 
Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

OVERVIEW: WHY KHARKIV HAS TRANSFORMED THE WAR

The strategic implications of Russia’s Kharkiv offensive are playing out at speed.
It has been a month. In that time the Russians, to make the attack possible, transferred about 30,000 troops from their 90,000 force on the Kherson front.
Recognising this and intelligence informing Ukraine of where they were going, they transferred the 36th Marine Brigade and around half of the elite drone battalion Magyars Birds to the same front, so that there was an immediately available force, coupled to units of the 47th Brigade. These formed the backbone of the defence along with units already there.
With the Ukrainian Marines largely withdrawn the Russians made a disastrous effort to retake the islands in the Dnepr Delta in Kherson and failed at high costs in men and machines over several weeks. And despite all of that they still haven’t been able to occupy Krynky because Ukraine has such dominant command of the heights on the other side of the river.
Once the offensive was under way in Kharkiv the Russian decision was quickly and clearly realised to have been premature.
Two things had been weighed in their judgement in favour of going early: they were afraid the Ukrainians had rumbled what they were up to and would be too ready to resist, and American aid flows were likely to speed up and change the dynamic.
In fact it was already too late on both counts. The Ukrainians had every aspect of the attack covered and knew what they would have to do - both from intel and reconnaissance. The aid was already arriving. So even when they made the decision to act the Russians were unaware both of their assumptions (and what’s the golden rule? Assume nothing!) were already outdated. The attack therefore was ordered based on false evidence.
The change in rules of engagement and use for western weapons came as a shock. Even though it could easily have been predicted and dealt with, the behind the lines devastation which was rapid and severe, changed the frontline dynamic completely.
The situation with Ukrainian aircraft operating against Russian forces and the missile strikes behind the lines meant that lost air defences needed to be replaced urgently.
That resulted in the transfer of air defences from Crimea still under way, and the effective neutralisation of Crimea as a military base area. A strategic victory of immense significance in the longer term.
Add to that the rolling need to extract other forces from areas along the rest of the front to prevent the Kharkiv retreats from becoming catastrophic defeats, reducing the effectiveness of other operations and we have a strategic own goal of staggeringly huge proportions.
The whole purpose of the Kharkiv attacks was to force the Ukrainian side to withdraw key units from the Luhansk/Donbas to enable Russian forces to make advances there.
Instead the Russian offensive in Kharkiv has been so disastrous that it’s become the main event and its own existence - which any good strategic commander would have seen - has no purpose now. They should have withdrawn and declared it a raid in punishment for the Ukrainian raids into Belgorod and saved face. But they were too arrogant to do even that.
Once the permissions to strike behind the lines into Russia itself were given, rather than accept that was a reason to stop and withdraw, Russian commanders then decided to stay and play right into the trap. They doubled down and under a rain of HIMARS strikes and artillery tried to push reinforcements into the front, only to watch them exploded and droned out of existence. With supplies cut and reinforcements reduced to a trickle, Ukrainians have advanced on the Russian lines and retaken most of Vovchansk and much of the Liptsy front.
The distraction has become the main event and Russia has no means to create an alternative to distract from it.
CONTINUES…

Crimea has been stripped of air defences and rendered militarily useless, the Kherson front has been weakened and made more vulnerable and Russian forces are stretched to do more than skirmish elsewhere.
And Ukraine has managed to sustain and defend and then reverse the Russian attack.
At what point is this not a massively decisive point in the war? It’s revealed more than we could have ever imagined about Russia - especially its lack of armour, reduced air defence capability and the fact that despite recruiting 30,000 men a month, its profligate misuse of human life and the unpreparedness of its forces results in poor quality results. We have long known it but it’s reached a point where Russian losses are outstripping their manpower capabilities.
There’s no question in my mind that even if the frontline situation changed even slightly, for a few days in Russian favour, it won’t last. The Kharkiv offensive by any measure is a disastrous operation. The only sensible way out is to withdraw and avoid anymore losses. Accept it was a mistake and move on. But they won’t.
Ukraine has been lucky and ingenious in equal measure. Its strategy to defend the front was vitally important and it worked. Timing was perfectly lined up to maximise their opportunities. Outstanding preparation and staff work created an exemplary environment to ensure they stopped the Russians. I don’t think much of what followed was intended, but a consequence of getting it right from the start.
Rarely has a single battle zone affected the war so widely - and that’s the takeaway from this. This small zone of combat has affected the entire front and more significantly, stretched deep behind it.
This is an important moment. Savour it.

Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
Brilliant.
 
Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

OVERVIEW: WHY KHARKIV HAS TRANSFORMED THE WAR

The strategic implications of Russia’s Kharkiv offensive are playing out at speed.
It has been a month. In that time the Russians, to make the attack possible, transferred about 30,000 troops from their 90,000 force on the Kherson front.
Recognising this and intelligence informing Ukraine of where they were going, they transferred the 36th Marine Brigade and around half of the elite drone battalion Magyars Birds to the same front, so that there was an immediately available force, coupled to units of the 47th Brigade. These formed the backbone of the defence along with units already there.
With the Ukrainian Marines largely withdrawn the Russians made a disastrous effort to retake the islands in the Dnepr Delta in Kherson and failed at high costs in men and machines over several weeks. And despite all of that they still haven’t been able to occupy Krynky because Ukraine has such dominant command of the heights on the other side of the river.
Once the offensive was under way in Kharkiv the Russian decision was quickly and clearly realised to have been premature.
Two things had been weighed in their judgement in favour of going early: they were afraid the Ukrainians had rumbled what they were up to and would be too ready to resist, and American aid flows were likely to speed up and change the dynamic.
In fact it was already too late on both counts. The Ukrainians had every aspect of the attack covered and knew what they would have to do - both from intel and reconnaissance. The aid was already arriving. So even when they made the decision to act the Russians were unaware both of their assumptions (and what’s the golden rule? Assume nothing!) were already outdated. The attack therefore was ordered based on false evidence.
The change in rules of engagement and use for western weapons came as a shock. Even though it could easily have been predicted and dealt with, the behind the lines devastation which was rapid and severe, changed the frontline dynamic completely.
The situation with Ukrainian aircraft operating against Russian forces and the missile strikes behind the lines meant that lost air defences needed to be replaced urgently.
That resulted in the transfer of air defences from Crimea still under way, and the effective neutralisation of Crimea as a military base area. A strategic victory of immense significance in the longer term.
Add to that the rolling need to extract other forces from areas along the rest of the front to prevent the Kharkiv retreats from becoming catastrophic defeats, reducing the effectiveness of other operations and we have a strategic own goal of staggeringly huge proportions.
The whole purpose of the Kharkiv attacks was to force the Ukrainian side to withdraw key units from the Luhansk/Donbas to enable Russian forces to make advances there.
Instead the Russian offensive in Kharkiv has been so disastrous that it’s become the main event and its own existence - which any good strategic commander would have seen - has no purpose now. They should have withdrawn and declared it a raid in punishment for the Ukrainian raids into Belgorod and saved face. But they were too arrogant to do even that.
Once the permissions to strike behind the lines into Russia itself were given, rather than accept that was a reason to stop and withdraw, Russian commanders then decided to stay and play right into the trap. They doubled down and under a rain of HIMARS strikes and artillery tried to push reinforcements into the front, only to watch them exploded and droned out of existence. With supplies cut and reinforcements reduced to a trickle, Ukrainians have advanced on the Russian lines and retaken most of Vovchansk and much of the Liptsy front.
The distraction has become the main event and Russia has no means to create an alternative to distract from it.
CONTINUES…

Crimea has been stripped of air defences and rendered militarily useless, the Kherson front has been weakened and made more vulnerable and Russian forces are stretched to do more than skirmish elsewhere.
And Ukraine has managed to sustain and defend and then reverse the Russian attack.
At what point is this not a massively decisive point in the war? It’s revealed more than we could have ever imagined about Russia - especially its lack of armour, reduced air defence capability and the fact that despite recruiting 30,000 men a month, its profligate misuse of human life and the unpreparedness of its forces results in poor quality results. We have long known it but it’s reached a point where Russian losses are outstripping their manpower capabilities.
There’s no question in my mind that even if the frontline situation changed even slightly, for a few days in Russian favour, it won’t last. The Kharkiv offensive by any measure is a disastrous operation. The only sensible way out is to withdraw and avoid anymore losses. Accept it was a mistake and move on. But they won’t.
Ukraine has been lucky and ingenious in equal measure. Its strategy to defend the front was vitally important and it worked. Timing was perfectly lined up to maximise their opportunities. Outstanding preparation and staff work created an exemplary environment to ensure they stopped the Russians. I don’t think much of what followed was intended, but a consequence of getting it right from the start.
Rarely has a single battle zone affected the war so widely - and that’s the takeaway from this. This small zone of combat has affected the entire front and more significantly, stretched deep behind it.
This is an important moment. Savour it.

Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
A great read.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
Not sure they are all batteries....Netherlands 3 launchers.
Is there not 8 launchers in a battery?

Slava Ukraini.
Click to expand...
Yes hence why I said and others - Netherlands is supplying the core - other nations will be providing one or more launchers a piece.
 
Last edited:
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