MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
WAR UPDATE
So many things have happened that need talking about.
The attacks at Savaslieka airfield are now known to have destroyed two Mig-31K kinzhal strike fighters, and two Il-76 Candid military transports. Information on the other strikes is still waited for.
There’s been the extraordinary revelations surrounding the Kursk invasion and how Russian General Lapin, who was sent there to act as regional commander after his tactical incompetence was revealed earlier in the war, decided on a major restructuring.
Kursk oblast like the others had a regional committee that coordinated the FSB, police, Rosguardia and army in defending the front and building defences.
He decided he didn’t need it and abolished the whole structure, saying only the army knew what but was doing and would manage the defence of the oblast. So when Kursk was attacked there was basically zero coordination, defences hadn’t been built because nobody was coordinating with civilian contractors, and nobody knew what to do or who was in charge of moving civilians.
And yet still he is in position and a senior commander because he is considered loyal. Loyalty overcomes competence every time.
An interesting drone development was the capture of a Russian experimental unit in Kursk. The drone was immune to EW jamming and target spoofing because it carried a cylinder about the size of a coke can, which contains a spool of tough but very long and thin signal wiring. The FPV drone was being controlled from a handset in the usual way, but used the wire to control its movements, much as missiles like the wire guided TOW do. The upside is it’s impossible to jam, the downside is the weight of the wire and the range - likely no more than a kilometre or two. It might not replace drones across the board, but if you need an FPV at short ranges in an EW contested battle space it has its uses.
The Proletorsk oil storage facility continues to burn with the intense heat continuously overcoming the tanks capabilities to resist one by one.
Today is the fifth day and the site, crucial to Russian army operations for fuel supply, is largely considered destroyed.
The drone attack on Moscow has had several effects despite none apparently reaching their targets. Firstly it’s become obvious where Putin thinks his anti-air needs to be. Screw the oil refineries and the arms factories and the airfields - Moscow is well covered. Clearly the idea of a major drone attack on the capital is feared above all
else - and rightly so. The reaction in Moscow was one of alarm and concern - notable public disquiet in fact. It was the first time drones had tried attacking the city in quite some time. I’d say the Ukrainians had two goals- test the defences and make sure they stay there. If they’re around Moscow they’re not around the other targets that really matter. Yet there’s also an advantage to keep doing it.
The more they do the more missiles Russia uses up and the greater the cost. Eventually they will get through and that’s going to bring the war home more than ever. Kursk will start to feel closer than ever. It’s also a marker of deterrence. If Russia resumes attacks on key structures - not that they have stopped but they’ve been smaller and more easily dealt with of late with a couple of cruise missiles and a wave of drones, then Ukraine is signalling they too will up the ante and reach deep into Moscow and Petersburg. Will Russia get the message?
Another interesting rolling argument is over long range missiles.
The Ukrainians are using HIMARS inside Russia - but the Americans are saying nothing about it. There have been rumours they used ATACMS but I don’t believe it. They just wouldn’t risk the repercussions with the Americans or do so on principle.
The Americans are adamant that Ukraine doesn’t need long range missiles at all inside Russia - including British Storm
Shadow. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
The British don’t have a problem with it, but they need to use targeting data provided by American satellites to get the missiles where they need to go, so they have to have American permission to do that, which has been refused. The Americans have even been arguing that Ukrainian drones are a better weapon for some of these attacks than missiles would be and they should stick to them. It’s the last item on the list bar one. F-16 are also not permitted to operate in Russian air space.
Regarding F-16, there has been delight in most aviation circles that Ukraine hasn’t been tempted into using them yet. Everyone thinks that would be a mistake. The first ten are said to be developing Ukraines remote basing and support systems, training ground crews and continuing training for pilots. There’s even been rumour they spend most of their downtime outside of Ukraine while the deployment and support issues are worked out. It’s a complex business and there’s no point in getting it wrong and giving the Russians a target they can boast about.
Meanwhile the war rages on. Kursk keeps expanding, the central front is hard going with deadly close fighting.
The Russians use a process of small infiltration groups of four men to make their way into the ruins of houses. Three of the four are usually killed but they keep sending more in until enough are there to start the process again and move forward. They accept a 75% casualty rate as being high but acceptable. With daily death rates at 1300+ they have as always, no care at all.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine !
