Russian invasion of Ukraine

Elbow beards said:
As I said before, this coming from a man who's direct actions had caused a British citizen to die on British soil, that in itself was an act of war.
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He’s a horrible **** of that there is no doubt. The only reason I gave his words any credence is it sounds plausible and even a broken clock is right twice a day.
 
Given Russian insistence that it has been fighting NATO and its troops on the ground since the very start, proclaiming its involvement now as something extraordinary is rather inconsistent. It has its new weapons from Iran but knows now that using them inside Ukraine will lead to a similar response inside Russia, and the past weeks have shown that Ukraine has no qualms about striking there. Rather than running that risk, wouldn’t be surprised if they first use them in the area of Ukrainian incursion.
 
There's many things that have really surprised me about this conflict. Arguably the first is that fact that Ukraine did not fall within days or weeks. I thought the vastly greater Russian military might would mean that they would, and clearly I got that wrong. But what continues to surprise me is the west's complete lack of any plan as to how to end this conflict.

When you think about it, there are only a limited number of possibilities.

1. It carries on for years, until Putin dies, after which Russia ceases hostilities and withdraws. (Of course it's possible that even Putin's death doesn't end it if he is replaced by a hard-liner.)

2. Ukraine wins militarily and pushes all Russian forces out of Ukraine, and Putin goes away with hie tail between his legs.

3. Russia achieves some objective that allows Putin to claim a victory, and then he withdraws and peace is resumed.

4. Putin is booted out by the oligarchs or some other faction - the military perhaps.

Are there any other end results? I cannot think of any off-hand.

When you look at these 3, it is pretty obvious that 1 is not a realistic "plan". To just carry on as we are for year after year with more 10's or 100's of thousands of deaths. Who knows maybe reaching into millions. So that surely has to be out? It is not a plan, altough this seems to be what the west is doing.

2. Is entirely unrealistic. Putin would probably be deposed if that happened, and given the brutality of their regime and the corrupt players in it, probably executed as well. He is NEVER going to allow this. He will fight until the end, whatever the consequences. This could seriously end in nuclear war.

4. was never going to happen, was it. We were all foolish to imagine it ever could. He runs the country with a rod of iron and no-one can get near him.

The only viable way out of this is 3. And yet no-one seems to be giving any thought to what kind off "off ramp" could be acceptable for both sides.
 
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Chippy_boy said:
There's many things that have really surprised me about this conflict. Arguably the first is that fact that Ukraine did not fall within days or weeks. I thought the vastly greater Russian military might would mean that they would, and clearly I got that wrong. But what continues to surprise me is the west's complete lack of any plan as to how to end this conflict.

When you think about it, there are only a limited number of possibilities.

1. It carries on for years, until Putin dies, after which Russia ceases hostilities and withdraws. (Of course it's possible that even Putin's death doesn't end it if he is replaced by a hard-liner.)

2. Ukraine wins militarily and pushes all Russian forces out of Ukraine, and Putin goes away with hie tail between his legs.

3. Russia achieves some objective that allows Putin to claim a victory, and then he withdraws and peace is resumed.

Are there any other end results? I cannot think of any off-hand.

When you look at these 3, it is pretty obvious that 1 is not a realistic "plan". To just carry on as we are for year after year with more 10's or 100's of thousands of deaths. Who knows maybe reaching into millions. So that surely has to be out? It is not a plan, altough this seems to be what the west is doing.

2. Is entirely unrealistic. Putin would probably be deposed if that happened, and given the brutality of their regime and the corrupt players in it, probably executed as well. He is NEVER going to allow this. He will fight until the end, whatever the consequences. This could seriously end in nuclear war.

The only viable way out of this is 3. And yet no-one seems to be giving any thought to what kind off "off ramp" could be acceptable for both sides.
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In regards possibility 3, Vance seems to have floated what Trump considers a plan, or, in his parlance, the ‘concept’ of a plan.

In regards possibility 1, I’ve read predictions that, at the current rate of losses, Russia will run out of those willing to take the money on offer by the end of 2025. It will then either have to offer substantially more, or, which is perhaps more likely, turn to those populations that have been so far less affected.
 
Chippy_boy said:
There's many things that have really surprised me about this conflict. Arguably the first is that fact that Ukraine did not fall within days or weeks. I thought the vastly greater Russian military might would mean that they would, and clearly I got that wrong. But what continues to surprise me is the west's complete lack of any plan as to how to end this conflict.

When you think about it, there are only a limited number of possibilities.

1. It carries on for years, until Putin dies, after which Russia ceases hostilities and withdraws. (Of course it's possible that even Putin's death doesn't end it if he is replaced by a hard-liner.)

2. Ukraine wins militarily and pushes all Russian forces out of Ukraine, and Putin goes away with hie tail between his legs.

3. Russia achieves some objective that allows Putin to claim a victory, and then he withdraws and peace is resumed.

4. Putin is booted out by the oligarchs or some other faction - the military perhaps.

Are there any other end results? I cannot think of any off-hand.

When you look at these 3, it is pretty obvious that 1 is not a realistic "plan". To just carry on as we are for year after year with more 10's or 100's of thousands of deaths. Who knows maybe reaching into millions. So that surely has to be out? It is not a plan, altough this seems to be what the west is doing.

2. Is entirely unrealistic. Putin would probably be deposed if that happened, and given the brutality of their regime and the corrupt players in it, probably executed as well. He is NEVER going to allow this. He will fight until the end, whatever the consequences. This could seriously end in nuclear war.

4. was never going to happen, was it. We were all foolish to imagine it ever could. He runs the country with a rod of iron and no-one can get near him.

The only viable way out of this is 3. And yet no-one seems to be giving any thought to what kind off "off ramp" could be acceptable for both sides.
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I'm no expert, but given videos I've seen on here and NATOs approach, it does look like we're turning it into a war of attrition. There was a video a few days back that claim they are gonna run out of tanks and vehicles mid 2025,the country's fucked financially. I can only assume it'll fizzle out and Putin will withdraw, claiming some sort of victory. As I say, purely guess work though.
 
Gabriel said:
In regards possibility 3, Vance seems to have floated what Trump considers a plan, or, in his parlance, the ‘concept’ of a plan.

In regards possibility 1, I’ve read predictions that, at the current rate of losses, Russia will run out of those willing to take the money on offer by the end of 2025. It will then either have to offer substantially more, or, which is perhaps more likely, turn to those populations that have been so far less affected.
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I don't think Trump's brain is capable of holding on to a concept is it? ;-)

Interesting about Russian losses. But it is staggering is it not that their economy continues to be OK. And they can just print money anyway in the short, medium and relatively speaking, long term. The status quo of conflct at its current levels, can continue for years. Ukraine will run out of soldiers before Russia does, so if we just carry on as we are, Russia wins.

Of course we could decide to not carry on as we are, and arm Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons. That results in escalation I think, and who knows where that goes. We can only pray that Putin would realise he would lose China's support if he nukes Ukraine, but he is a madman facing his own demise in this scenario, so it would be extremely risky to test this out.
 
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Chippy_boy said:
I don't think Trump's brain is capable of holding on to concept is it? ;-)

Interesting about Russian losses. But it is staggering is it not that their economy continues to be OK. And they can just print money anyway in the short, medium and relatively speaking, long term. The status quo of conflct at its current levels, can continue for years. Ukraine will run out of soldiers before Russia does, so if we just carry on as we are, Russia wins.

Of course we could decide to not carry on as we are, and arm Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons. That results in escalation I think, and who knows where that goes. We can only pray that Putin would realise he would lose China's support if he nukes Ukraine, but he is a madman facing his own demise in this scenario, so it would be extremely risky to test this out.
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The West probably underestimated how quickly Russia would be able to redirect its energy supplies to India and China, and it has been slow in tightening sanctions on companies supplying technology/parts either directly or indirectly. We also need to remember that Russia’s whole economy has been placed on a war footing. Can it continue to do that indefinitely? At some point, directing everything towards the military must have a negative effect on civilian living standards, and if that coincides with calling up young Muscovites, domestic support/silence might break.

Feels like the Cold War again but in microcosm.
 
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