Russian invasion of Ukraine

[CTID1977]

1000th day of the operation Kyiv in 3 days

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!

Eternal memory to the Heroes!

 

[The Colonel]

Peston reporting last night that G20 privately saying that negotiation between putin and Trump is now inevitable and that this move is mainly to strengthen the bargaining position.

 

[mosssideblue]

Peston reporting last night that G20 privately saying that negotiation between putin and Trump is now inevitable and that this move is mainly to strengthen the bargaining position.

Not sure Peston is being briefed by G20.

 

[The Colonel]

Not sure Peston is being briefed by G20.

Obviously not but he’s there and connected and politicians and their staff I’m sure give a different line in public. I hope he’s been misled but it wouldn’t surprise me either.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Peston reporting last night that G20 privately saying that negotiation between putin and Trump is now inevitable and that this move is mainly to strengthen the bargaining position.

This is a hugely simplistic perspective, like they are haggling over a car. What happens to the sanctions? What happens to the frozen assets? What if Europe doesn’t want to play ball with any or all of that?

Militarily, the US absolutely has more leverage, but this isn’t just about that.

 

[The Colonel]

This is a hugely simplistic perspective, like they are haggling over a car. What happens to the sanctions? What happens to the frozen assets? What if Europe doesn’t want to play ball with any or all of that?

Militarily, the US absolutely has more leverage, but this isn’t just about that.

Agree with all of that. Massively complicated and far reaching. Existing military capabilities would be chip in the process.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Another factor, is what state the Russian military is actually in. Impossible for any of us to tell with any certainty, but if European nations felt, based on worthwhile intelligence, another year or so would make a material difference then I would say there would be far more stomach for that than anything that extended much beyond that.

As well as shifting US policy, albeit temporarily, the deployment of North Korean troops could be a catalyst for a notion of one more push from Europe if US support falls away. If it was felt there was a discernible and worthwhile endgame within 12 to 18 months, as that would make economic sense.

Obviously, the above is all predicated on Ukraine rejecting any putative ‘deal’ as posited by Peston.

There are so many variables in this. Always has been, but Trump being elected has thrown a fuck off grenade into the mix.

 

[BlueAnorak]

That has been the case for months unfortunately. Especially when they were running out of artillery shells whilst trying to defend large attacks. The only viable option seems to be attrition and hoping the russian economy gives way before the Wests will to sustain Ukraine.

Months? Years.

 

[BlueAnorak]

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Another factor, is what state the Russian military is actually in. Impossible for any of us to tell with any certainty, but if European nations felt, based on worthwhile intelligence, another year or so would make a material difference then I would say there would be far more stomach for that than anything that extended much beyond that.

As well as shifting US policy, albeit temporarily, the deployment of North Korean troops could be a catalyst for a notion of one more push from Europe if US support falls away. If it was felt there was a discernible and worthwhile endgame within 12 to 18 months, as that would make economic sense.

Obviously, the above is all predicated on Ukraine rejecting any putative ‘deal’ as posited by Peston.

There are so many variables in this. Always has been, but Trump being elected has thrown a fuck off grenade into the mix.

One thing that's been consistent all the way through this is the Russian military has been overestimated.

Including, but not limited to:
-humiliation in the battle for Kjiv
-humiliation in the retreat from Kharkiv
-humiliation in the retreat from Kherson
-humiliation in the loss of their flagship and retreat of their fleet from the Black Sea
-humiliation in their inability to defend Moscow from drones
etc

I don't know the state of the Russian army. Perhaps the Russians don't. But at every turn to date Russian armed forces capability has been overestimated in this war.