FRONTLINE UPDATE DAY 1000
Can you believe it’s been 1,000 days? This article is written by The Analyst for Military & Strategic Telegram Channel.
Kursk is showing number of concerning Russian advances. They have now made their way most of the distance from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. This places Ukrainian forces in the NW in an untenable position and must surely force a rapid evacuation.
Russian forces are also assessed to have gained ground in the NE and made some small progress in the SE. Overall Ukraine has now lost about 55% of the previously taken territory.
Russian forces have advanced inside eastern Kupiansk.
Pretty much the entire northern sector of the front shows small but progressive Russian advances.
Chasiv Yar has seen significant fighting with Russian forces seen in the centre of the town. A most unwelcome development.
Along the entire front, including along the southern sector Russian advances have been notable and relatively rapid in the south, there’s little chance n the way of defence lines to stop them. Ukraine’s forces just don’t have the manpower or hardware to stop them.
Overall it’s not been a good day. The Russian onslaught continues with massive casualty figures and equipment losses as high as 80+ vehicles a day. They continue to waste men and material.
In terms of peace talks the Russians are making it clear that they are not interested in an armistice in place, namely the war stops at the front line on whatever day. They want entire Oblasts handed over because they’ve already claimed them as theirs - Zaporhizia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson. That’s a lot of land they haven’t occupied yet and could be two years or more if they ever do.
The Ukrainians will never agree to such a deal.
Ukraine needs to be able to stop the advances - and for that it needs manpower that it simply refuses to mobilise. There’s no hotter and divisive topic in Ukraine than mobilisation. Ukraine needs 200,000 men on the front yesterday - and every dithering day not facing that fact is lost for good.
It’s time the country bit the bullet and realised it’s either now or maybe never. To much is being lost too quickly to waste another day.
Of course it’s hard, of course nobody wants to. But it will be harder under Russian occupation and without your freedom. Recruiting now gets men in the front by February-March. In time for what will likely be major Russian offensive to break this war in their favour after months of winter attrition.
I’ve long argued it’s been too little too late on the mobilisation issue, but Ukrainian politicians and public resist the inevitable every day. In doing so they may well be condemning themselves to what they fear even more. Too few are taking the heat for too many.
If Russian advances aren’t stopped and Ukraine refuses to give Putin what he wants then he’s eventually going to take it. That’s the simple logic. He’s all-in. Every last rouble is in the pot on the table and he’s holding what he thinks are the winning cards. He isn’t going to stop unless you stop him.
Putin’s gambling Russia’s economy, his life, and everyone else’s on winning this to establish his legacy. He’s 72 and he wants to be seen as the winner and restorer of Russian Glory before he dies. Do you honestly think he will stop unless you make it happen?
The worst irony is that he’s put so much on the table it’s just a Phyrric victory in the end. He might be seen to win but the cost will be calamitous and worthless. That’s a whole other mess to clean up. But he’ll be gone and he won’t care.
It’s vital that Ukraine stops these advances soon. If next year starts as this year is going, it’s going to be very difficult extracting any kind of peace that works, and Russia isn’t interested in a fair outcome- just one that suits it the most.
The ball is in Ukraine’s court. Will they play it?
MilitaryAnalysis.bsky.social
The Analyst
Slava Ukraine !
Explaining the military and strategic reasons, considerations, psychology and consequences of actions taken or being planned.
t.me
