From "The Analyst":
CHASIV YAR: RUSSIA WANTS IT BY MAY 9th
According to General Sryski, in a press release Saturday, the Russians have set the big WW2 memorial parade day as the date for Chasiv Yar to be conquered. Dates like this have come and gone before.
The question is why is Chasiv Yar so important and can they achieve this goal in that time frame - under a month?
Lack of air defence on the front combined to a much higher sortie rate by the VKS, who have even been using Su-25 Frogfoot tactical strike aircraft again, on top of glide bombs from further behind the lines, is said to be key in making the Russian goal a reality.
May 9th is I believe, pie in the sky. This is a three to six month battle at the very least and it’s going to be expensive.
Chasiv Yar is fortified from all sides - defences have been prepared for months. A quick breakthrough seems unlikely.
The problem remains however, that Chasiv Yar is important in a way Bakhmut was not.
Bakhmut’s only importance was that it was the gateway to Chasiv Yar - the real prize in the defence chain.
If it falls there is no major settlement between it and a semi-circle of towns and villages with the vital Kramatorsk as the ultimate goal.
Between Chasiv Yar and these settlements is complex terrain and a new Ukrainian defence line, still not yet fully ready.
Chasiv Yar is the central point more or less that would allow Russian forces to radiate out against these towns, the three most southerly are closest to it, including Sloviansk. These are the last line of defence in the Donbas. Russian aims are to take all of that region and Luhansk.
Constantinivka is however the most likely target as its closest and sits on a key supply highway.
If this fell, then problems supplying the entire defence line increases dramatically.
This would force Ukraine to reinforce it, almost certainly while being under pressure in the Zaporhizia and Kupiansk directions.
Seizing these southern towns would open up the possibility of collapsing the Ukrainian defence lines and shaking up the whole of the Southeastern front.
The region behind these key towns is flatter, more rural and the Russians would be code to seizing all of what remains of Donbas- long accepted as their primary goal since it was supposedly ‘annexed’ in 2022.
The dangers of Russian advances however are many. While a quicker than expected victory at Chasiv Yar would almost certainly see a scenario like the one above - it creates a salient that is potentially soft and open to counter attacks if they can be prepared quickly.
Chasiv Yar matters. So far though Ukraine has not been successful in defending towns like this in the long term. It has extracted a high price for them - but it has also cost Ukraine dearly too.
Air defences and artillery support are critical. Only external aid can change the situation, and sadly America is the key to that this year. And we’re still nowhere near resolving that problem.
Chasiv Yar is just one of three or four potentially important choke points Ukraine will have to defend - at least two others will be used as distraction and fixing campaigns to keep Ukraine engaged elsewhere.
It’s going to be a tough summer.
Slava Ukraini !
