The weather has worsened. Russian casualty figures have dropped to their lowest in weeks. Daylight hours are approaching minimum. The cold is having its effect especially on the notoriously poorly equipped Russians.
Over the past couple of days the Ukrainians have pulled off a brilliant counter attack, slicing off the Russian pincer move in the north of the Khurakove salient above Vuhledar.
Elsewhere the Russians continue to advance metres at a time in most key areas, but by all accounts the aggression levels and the relentlessness have tapered off a little. I doubt it feels like that to the brave defenders.
Kremina, Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk have all faced Russian advances.
A nuclear missile bus with warheads on their distributor ring
REFLEXIVE RESPONSE
It’s absolutely crucial at this time that we understand Putin is engaged a truly massive reflexive response campaign.
As I’ve discussed before, this is a 1960’s development of the KGB, only magnified today through social media and the multiplicity of poorly informed and importantly – reflexive – media channels.
There was a prime example of this on UK Sky News during an interview with the Russian Ambasssdor.
The interviewer, a leading channel journalist heard the Ambassador say that Ukraine could only operate Storm Shadow with the UK providing targeting data – that’s not true but it’s part of the way Russia frames its excuses. He rightly, said well you can’t have it both ways because you’re using Chinese equipment and N.Korean soldiers and weapons.
Then the Ambasssdor, when asked about the ballistic missile strike said it was just a reaction to western interference. The journalist said ‘are you willing to use nuclear weapons’, to which the ambassador said in effect, ‘I never said that’, the journalist kept pressing, ‘but that’s what you’re threatening because you changed your doctrine and fired that missile’. Again at no time did the ambassador say anything that implied a potential use of nuclear weapons. However the interpretation the interviewer placed on it was entirely reflexive in its presumption that was what was meant, and he repeated that statement three times. That left the viewer hearing what the Russians wanted – a threat of nuclear attack – without the ambassador saying a word to that effect.
Anybody watching that without any knowledge or understanding of these matters would have been frightened and rightly alarmed. This type of media response is exactly what the Russians aim for. It spreads fear, it spreads alarm.
The whole purpose of it is to persuade us to change the mind of our governments about assisting Ukraine.
Let’s also not forget that this whole concept of not hitting parts of Russian territory is complete nonsense.
Back in October 2022 in a lavish Kremlin ceremony Russia annexed and included in its constitution, the Ukrainian Oblasts under occupation after their invasion – the entire war in Russian terms, has been fought in what they think is their territory.
The very concept of trying to separate Ukrainian made long range weapons from western made longer range weapons operated by Ukrainian forces, is another example of structured phrases and concepts that mean nothing in reality. They are concepts designed to reduce our support and involvement in stopping Russia.
I’m literally typing this as the 8am news implies that Russia will attack western nations for their support and use of weapons in Russia. This is maddening cherry picking of headline grabbing sound bites.
So let’s be clear – when you hear these comments feel angry. Because every time you do Putin’s campaign of Reflexive Response is in full swing and working to get its message across.
How much can we resist it? I feel we’ve heard it all before. We ignored it all eventually and we must ignore it now.
Russia is worried. Its economy is in dire trouble, its army near exhausted after months of endless fighting at peak levels. We know their armour resources are dwindling away. The more hysterical their messaging and propaganda the more we know they’re nearing breaking point at some stage, in one area of this war or another.
Stay strong, stay defiant and ignore the Russian words, it’s all they are.
MilitaryAnalysis@bsky.social
The Analyst
