Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MillionMilesAway]

Zelensky exaggerated threats to the west to secure more funding? How the fuck does that even work?

I thought that.
It would be another needling of the US intelligence network who would surely have their own opinions. Well, until Gabbard takes over, and then they'll have somebody else's opinion.

 

[CTID1977]

In Moscow, the agents of the GUR liquidated Mikhail Shatsky, the deputy general designer of the "Mars" KB and the head of the software department. Shatskyi was the organizer of work on the modernization of the Kh-59 to Kh-69 missiles, which the occupiers use to attack Ukraine, including the energy infrastructure.

 

[LGWIO]

I’m not at all sure it does and I’m not sure why you’re attaching any weight to something Trump has said. You don’t normally. No reliance can be given to any statement he makes. Trump has also previously said that Zelensky could have stuck the boot in and didn’t, in a way that was positive towards the Ukrainian leader. No weight should be attached to that statement either. He’s completely full of shit.

Is it possible Trump will bend over for Putin? Possibility, but not doesn’t mean it’s a fait accompli for Ukraine in any event. Not if Europe steps up.

And I think it’s unlikely.

Whatever Trump’s relationship with Putin, and however compromised he may be, the dynamic between Putin and the West has changed beyond recognition since the invasion and since before Covid really. Before the pandemic Putin was cock of the walk. Russians were spending in London and Paris like they owned the places, Western Europe was addicted to Russian oil and gas, the Russian economy was strong and the Russian military had an imperious reputation. Russia was feared and respected, if not loved. All that is now in tatters and Putin isn’t holding anything like the cards he was when Trump last left office.

All this changes the dynamics in the equation hugely, as does the further faltering Russian economy and, most likely, the shifting sands in the Middle East, which are appearing to conspire of late significantly against Russia. Plus there is all the seized money and the sanctions to weigh into the equation, especially as the latter looks like they are finally starting to bite.

I also think that if the Russian military is closer to running on empty than is widely reported in the media then NATO will have verifiable intel on this. If so, this will also enter into the equation.

Trump simply cannot ignore all this. And he cannot operate in a vacuum. If he does he runs the risk of looking weak and compromised and/or having the rest of NATO telling him to fuck off if he wants to give too much away. There is too much at stake for that not to be the case. And in that sense, because Putin is weakened, then in the context of this situation, so is Trump as his value as a counterweight is diminished.

Do I trust him to do what’s right? Absolutely not, but Putin has fucked up so badly that I cannot see any scenario where he gets what he wants out if this, and I expect Trump will sense the way the wind is blowing, one way or the other, and compromised or not.

There are lots of factors and forces at work, and this situation is simply not going to reach any sort of conclusion with Trump simply giving Putin what he wants. The sums don’t add up.

As ever a good post...I also think it worth considering Trumps massive ego.
The fact that he has to be seen to associate with "winners". As you say, the dynamics have changed since Trump was last in power and Putin is no way the force he once was. Diminshing influence in the middle east and therefore Africa, diminshed control over the worlds heating/power and an economy that has been skewed to war mode to try and underpin the "3 day war".
Any support for Putin therefore could hardly be said to be supporting a "winner".
Whether he can get past the Zelenskyy/Hunter issue is to be seen, but I suspect that being seen to support someone who embraced Trump's "fight fight fight" mantra, someone who has seen their kudos and respect grow throughout this, well that may just swing it in Ukraines favour.
...then of course he can try and make dfeals to get the lions share of any infrastructure rebuild in Ukraine.

 

[b6_brum]

If Trump could potentially be sympathetic to Ukraine, why is his son & Musk continuing to post derogatory memes to Zelensky? Surely if he was serious about a level of support for them, he'd tell them to reign it in and not jeopardise diplomatic relations?

He was all happy to shake hands last week in the presence of European leaders where Zelensky is viewed favourably, but that won't last long. He has appointed people to positions of power who are Kremlin sympathisers and there is no way you can trust the man. I'm amazed how quickly he has been normalised since his election, we're in for a rude awakening next year.

 

[west didsblue]

I’m not at all sure it does and I’m not sure why you’re attaching any weight to something Trump has said. You don’t normally. No reliance can be given to any statement he makes. Trump has also previously said that Zelensky could have stuck the boot in and didn’t, in a way that was positive towards the Ukrainian leader. No weight should be attached to that statement either. He’s completely full of shit.

Is it possible Trump will bend over for Putin? Possibility, but not doesn’t mean it’s a fait accompli for Ukraine in any event. Not if Europe steps up.

And I think it’s unlikely.

Whatever Trump’s relationship with Putin, and however compromised he may be, the dynamic between Putin and the West has changed beyond recognition since the invasion and since before Covid really. Before the pandemic Putin was cock of the walk. Russians were spending in London and Paris like they owned the places, Western Europe was addicted to Russian oil and gas, the Russian economy was strong and the Russian military had an imperious reputation. Russia was feared and respected, if not loved. All that is now in tatters and Putin isn’t holding anything like the cards he was when Trump last left office.

All this changes the dynamics in the equation hugely, as does the further faltering Russian economy and, most likely, the shifting sands in the Middle East, which are appearing to conspire of late significantly against Russia. Plus there is all the seized money and the sanctions to weigh into the equation, especially as the latter looks like they are finally starting to bite.

I also think that if the Russian military is closer to running on empty than is widely reported in the media then NATO will have verifiable intel on this. If so, this will also enter into the equation.

Trump simply cannot ignore all this. And he cannot operate in a vacuum. If he does he runs the risk of looking weak and compromised and/or having the rest of NATO telling him to fuck off if he wants to give too much away. There is too much at stake for that not to be the case. And in that sense, because Putin is weakened, then in the context of this situation, so is Trump as his value as a counterweight is diminished.

Do I trust him to do what’s right? Absolutely not, but Putin has fucked up so badly that I cannot see any scenario where he gets what he wants out if this, and I expect Trump will sense the way the wind is blowing, one way or the other, and compromised or not.

There are lots of factors and forces at work, and this situation is simply not going to reach any sort of conclusion with Trump simply giving Putin what he wants. The sums don’t add up.

All of the above presupposes that Trump isn’t a fucking vindictive idiot whose primary motivations aren’t about getting one over on people he perceives have wronged him.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

If Trump could potentially be sympathetic to Ukraine, why is his son & Musk continuing to post derogatory memes to Zelensky? Surely if he was serious about a level of support for them, he'd tell them to reign it in and not jeopardise diplomatic relations?

He was all happy to shake hands last week in the presence of European leaders where Zelensky is viewed favourably, but that won't last long. He has appointed people to positions of power who are Kremlin sympathisers and there is no way you can trust the man. I'm amazed how quickly he has been normalised since his election, we're in for a rude awakening next year.

I don’t think Trump is sympathetic to anything, and nor can he be trusted, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll give Putin what he wants as much as Putin didn’t come to Assad’s aid in his hour of need. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the ****’s been bumped off by Putin, which would underline that there’s no honour amongst thieves.

These cunts are just out for themselves and Putin doesn’t have nearly as much to offer as he did half a decade ago.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

All of the above presupposes that Trump isn’t a fucking vindictive idiot whose primary motivations aren’t about getting one over on people he perceives have wronged him.

Who would you say has wronged him more? Zelenskyy over Hunter’s laptop, or Putin over a sustained campaign of blackmail involving some hookers being pissed on?

 

[west didsblue]

Who would you say has wronged him more? Zelenskyy over Hunter’s laptop, or Putin over a sustained campaign of blackmail involving some hookers being pissed on?

I suspect Putin has provided Trump with significant lines of credit which is probably more significant to Trump than some background threats about golden showers. Trump has noticeably been in awe of Putin for years - far more than would be expected just as a result of the supposed blackmail.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I suspect Putin has provided Trump with significant lines of credit which is probably more significant to Trump than some background threats about golden showers. Trump has noticeably been in awe of Putin for years - far more than would be expected just as a result of the supposed blackmail.

So his primary motivation isn’t about getting one over on people he perceives have wronged him?

 

[grunge]

Who would you say has wronged him more? Zelenskyy over Hunter’s laptop, or Putin over a sustained campaign of blackmail involving some hookers being pissed on?

If the has been blackmailed with such items those items are still there to blackmail with.

If all blackmail ( assuming there is any ) materials come out then yeah he might go after them.