I’m not at all sure it does and I’m not sure why you’re attaching any weight to something Trump has said. You don’t normally. No reliance can be given to any statement he makes. Trump has also previously said that Zelensky could have stuck the boot in and didn’t, in a way that was positive towards the Ukrainian leader. No weight should be attached to that statement either. He’s completely full of shit.
Is it possible Trump will bend over for Putin? Possibility, but not doesn’t mean it’s a fait accompli for Ukraine in any event. Not if Europe steps up.
And I think it’s unlikely.
Whatever Trump’s relationship with Putin, and however compromised he may be, the dynamic between Putin and the West has changed beyond recognition since the invasion and since before Covid really. Before the pandemic Putin was cock of the walk. Russians were spending in London and Paris like they owned the places, Western Europe was addicted to Russian oil and gas, the Russian economy was strong and the Russian military had an imperious reputation. Russia was feared and respected, if not loved. All that is now in tatters and Putin isn’t holding anything like the cards he was when Trump last left office.
All this changes the dynamics in the equation hugely, as does the further faltering Russian economy and, most likely, the shifting sands in the Middle East, which are appearing to conspire of late significantly against Russia. Plus there is all the seized money and the sanctions to weigh into the equation, especially as the latter looks like they are finally starting to bite.
I also think that if the Russian military is closer to running on empty than is widely reported in the media then NATO will have verifiable intel on this. If so, this will also enter into the equation.
Trump simply cannot ignore all this. And he cannot operate in a vacuum. If he does he runs the risk of looking weak and compromised and/or having the rest of NATO telling him to fuck off if he wants to give too much away. There is too much at stake for that not to be the case. And in that sense, because Putin is weakened, then in the context of this situation, so is Trump as his value as a counterweight is diminished.
Do I trust him to do what’s right? Absolutely not, but Putin has fucked up so badly that I cannot see any scenario where he gets what he wants out if this, and I expect Trump will sense the way the wind is blowing, one way or the other, and compromised or not.
There are lots of factors and forces at work, and this situation is simply not going to reach any sort of conclusion with Trump simply giving Putin what he wants. The sums don’t add up.
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