Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scottyboi said:
SATURDAY IS DAY 1,325 OF THE WAR AGAINST UKRAINE
World War 1 lasted 1,561 days.
The Great Patriotic War 1941-45 lasted 1,417 days. That included the Battle for Moscow, Stalingrad, Kursk, the siege of Leningrad, the levelling of Warsaw and the Battle of Berlin.

Putin hasn’t even taken more than 1% of Ukraine in 1,000 days.
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It’s 4,247 days since Russia invaded Crimea.
 
️ Reuters: Exports of oil products from Russia by sea in September decreased by 17.1% compared to August - to 7.58 million tons.

Unplanned shutdowns of a number of key refineries due to Ukrainian strikes reduced fuel exports and caused an increase in crude oil supplies.

• total exports of oil products through Baltic ports - a drop of 15.4%, to 4.36 million tons;

• through ports of the Black and Azov Seas - by 23.2%, to 2.52 million tons;

• in the Far East - a decrease of 1.5%, to 661.3 thousand tons;

• from Arctic ports - an increase of 1.8%, to 30.2 thousand tons.
 
Scottyboi said:
️ Reuters: Exports of oil products from Russia by sea in September decreased by 17.1% compared to August - to 7.58 million tons.

Unplanned shutdowns of a number of key refineries due to Ukrainian strikes reduced fuel exports and caused an increase in crude oil supplies.

• total exports of oil products through Baltic ports - a drop of 15.4%, to 4.36 million tons;

• through ports of the Black and Azov Seas - by 23.2%, to 2.52 million tons;

• in the Far East - a decrease of 1.5%, to 661.3 thousand tons;

• from Arctic ports - an increase of 1.8%, to 30.2 thousand tons.
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Something that’s frustrated me is how we’ve still been buying oil (in the form of diesel and aviation fuel) from Russia, indirectly via India.

Aug 23

globalwitness.org

UK purchases of Russian-origin jet fuel worth at least £40m to the Kremlin

UK purchases of Russian-origin jet fuel worth at least £40m to the Kremlin
globalwitness.org globalwitness.org


Feb 24

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian oil getting into UK via refinery loophole, reports claim

Russian oil is refined in other countries and sold into the UK as jet fuel and diesel, research claims.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk


Aug 25

observer.co.uk

It’s refined in India, but Russian crude is still gushing...

Oil products worth millions have been imported from a refinery owned by a sanctioned Russian firm
observer.co.uk observer.co.uk
 
Stuff 14/10:
www.dailykos.com

Russian stuff blowing up: Huge casualties blunt Russia's armored assault at Pokrovsk

Russia’s armored assaults on Pokrovsk have so far ended in disaster. The latest assault involved one tank and 17 infantry fighting vehicles. The tank, 12 of the IFVs and about 100 Russian soldiers were destroyed. A bigger armored assault four days...
www.dailykos.com

About the Russian armoured assault near Pokrovsk, I am reminded of a certain quote from the Duke of Welington at the battle of Waterloo...
They came on in the same old way, and we sent them back in the same old way.

Good job Russuan generals are stupid. I thought they had learnt that infiltration tactics work much better...
 
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You know what?... I know fuck all about which side is winning the war.

For the record, I hate Putin and hope that Ukraine will prevail.

But fuck me - this thread - and basically any internet post I click on proclaims that Russia is in trouble; Putin is in trouble; big bomb/breaking news/bombshell.... whatever post - seeking click bait.

I'm a careful consumer of news. And I 100% blame Putin for the inexcusable invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, I don't trust any source - pro Putin - or pro Ukraine - at this point. Both sides are engaged in meaningless bullshit posts.

And I've no clue about which side is likely to prevail.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
You know what?... I know fuck all about which side is winning the war.

For the record, I hate Putin and hope that Ukraine will prevail.

But fuck me - this thread - and basically any internet post I click on proclaims that Russia is in trouble; Putin is in trouble; big bomb/breaking news/bombshell.... whatever post - seeking click bait.

I'm a careful consumer of news. And I 100% blame Putin for the inexcusable invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, I don't trust any source - pro Putin - or pro Ukraine - at this point. Both sides are engaged in meaningless bullshit posts.
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some fair points,

go back thousands of pages and its 'RUSSIA HAS RUN OUT OF MONEY' 'RUSSIA ARMY IS 90% DEFEATED' 'PUTIN IS ILL AND GOING TO DIE' etc etc, none of it has come to fruition years later.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
some fair points,

go back thousands of pages and its 'RUSSIA HAS RUN OUT OF MONEY' 'RUSSIA ARMY IS 90% DEFEATED' 'PUTIN IS ILL AND GOING TO DIE' etc etc, none of it has come to fruition years later.
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100% agree.

Pro Ukraine posts are so full of bullshit that - although I'd like to agree - it's almost always click bait propaganda or outright bullshit... to the extent that I've no fucking clue how Ukraine is doing in this way... but i get the impression that they're not doing well... at all.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
100% agree.

Pro Ukraine posts are so full of bullshit that - although I'd like to agree - it's almost always click bait propaganda or outright bullshit... to the extent that I've no fucking clue how Ukraine is doing in this way... but i get the impression that they're not doing well... at all.
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This guy seems to be pretty decent. some of his headlines read more dramatically than his actual commentary though. He posts a video around once a week mostly about the geopolitical state of Russia and whats going on inside Russia rather than the front lines. things like the fuel shortages and the fact Ukraine started to hit the ports of the shadow fleets and what potential knock ons that might have along the line.

www.youtube.com

Paul Warburg

Paul Warburg is an independent, open-source geopolitical analyst. In a world of murky information that is often made far more complex than it needs to be, I like to speak in plain English to actual human beings, so that everyone can understand what's going on in our world. Expect...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
grunge said:
This guy seems to be pretty decent. some of his headlines read more dramatically than his actual commentary though. He posts a video around once a week mostly about the geopolitical state of Russia and whats going on inside Russia rather than the front lines. things like the fuel shortages and the fact Ukraine started to hit the ports of the shadow fleets and what potential knock ons that might have along the line.

www.youtube.com

Paul Warburg

Paul Warburg is an independent, open-source geopolitical analyst. In a world of murky information that is often made far more complex than it needs to be, I like to speak in plain English to actual human beings, so that everyone can understand what's going on in our world. Expect...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
Click to expand...
Cheers - I'll check him out.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
100% agree.

Pro Ukraine posts are so full of bullshit that - although I'd like to agree - it's almost always click bait propaganda or outright bullshit... to the extent that I've no fucking clue how Ukraine is doing in this way... but i get the impression that they're not doing well... at all.
Click to expand...
Not being funny but if you have no idea of the way things are going, how can you claim info is click bait or bullshit?
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
100% agree.

Pro Ukraine posts are so full of bullshit that - although I'd like to agree - it's almost always click bait propaganda or outright bullshit... to the extent that I've no fucking clue how Ukraine is doing in this way... but i get the impression that they're not doing well... at all.
Click to expand...
Putin set off to conquer Ukraine in a few days
The ruSSian tactics and army was hopeless, which gave the Ukrainians the opportunity of holding out, but ruSSia had taken a huge swathe of land
The Ukrainians organised themselves, fought back and reclaimed territory
If the USA had allowed, the Ukrainians would have surrounded and eliminated 100k ruSSians, but they had to ket them slip away
As the west supplied more equipment, there was a small advantage to the Ukrainians and they were on the hunt to push the invaders back further
However the west gave really terrible advice and the Ukrainian assault failed miserably
Since then, it's been a war of attrition
The ruSSians have reigned in their territory ambitions and now want the whole of certain oblasts, such as Donetsk, to give them an advantage at the negotiation table, where they will agree a ceasefire but on the agreement that these oblasts are annexed ruSSian territory, which is why they're chucking everything in certain directions
The Ukrainians are holding out, but only just
The ruSSians have the manpower advantage. The Ukrainians, a solid defence, but are short of numbers
Meanwhile sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on ruSSian infrastructure is now starting to bite. It's taken its time and it'll be many more months yet to bear real fruition
A collapse on either side could happen very quickly
 
mosssideblue said:
Not being funny but if you have no idea of the way things are going, how can you claim info is click bait or bullshit?
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Because (nearly) every post I click on is "BOMBSHELL... blah blah blah" or "MASSIVE NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... blah blah blah" or some such... by random, but well-followed posters.

And such posts are often along these lines- I'm making the following up but it's reflective of content.

BOMBSHELL!!! RUSSIAN GPS IS DEAD!!!
And then a post about Putin being 3 hours late for a meeting is interpreted as a failure for Russia to keep time which is then linked to GPS inaccuracy. Yes... this is made up and exaggerated - but it's illustrative of the bullshit pro-Ukraine posts I've read on youtube.

These posters care about Ukraine (probably) but their chief aim is to make money, or to gain prominence in order to reach a bigger audience - facts and objective reporting are either not important, or are secondary to either profitability or reach of audience hoping to sway sentiment for Ukraine in spite of fact.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Because (nearly) every post I click on is "BOMBSHELL... blah blah blah" or "MASSIVE NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... blah blah blah" or some such... by random, but well-followed posters.

And such posts are often along these lines- I'm making the following up but it's reflective of content.

BOMBSHELL!!! RUSSIAN GPS IS DEAD!!!
And then a post about Putin being 3 hours late for a meeting is interpreted as a failure for Russia to keep time which is then linked to GPS inaccuracy. Yes... this is made up and exaggerated - but it's representative of the bullshit pro-Ukraine posts I've read.

These posters care about Ukraine (probably) but their chief aim is to make money, or to gain prominence in order to reach a bigger audience - facts and objective reporting are either not important, or are secondary to profitability and reach of audience.
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There is plainly bullshit propaganda on both sides, and I certainly swerve a lot of pro-Ukrainian stuff on YouTube as it’s obviously utterly tendentious. The amount of misinformation floating about requires extreme caution when evaluating the state of the war, and we all need to counsel ourselves against confirmation bias, especially when that can be readily reinforced by our own online proclivities, but I don’t agree that Ukraine is, as you sad previously ‘not doing well…at all’.

Other than being inimical to what you’ve seen on YouTube, which isn’t any particular barometer either way, what is your objective basis for forming that view?
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
There is plainly bullshit propaganda on both sides, and I certainly swerve a lot of pro-Ukrainian stuff on YouTube as it’s obviously utterly tendentious. The amount of misinformation floating about requires extreme caution when evaluating the state of the war, and we all need to counsel ourselves against confirmation bias, especially when that can be readily reinforced by our own online proclivities, but I don’t agree that Ukraine is, as you sad previously ‘not doing well…at all’.

Other than being inimical to what you’ve seen on YouTube, which isn’t any particular barometer either way, what is your objective basis for forming that view?
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Cheers.

Why do I think that Ukraine isn't going great guns and that Russia is on the ropes?

Because, if so, actual facts would support this. For example, Russia taking massive casualties. Or Russia ceding ground to Ukraine. Or massive protests against Putin throughout Russia. Or, well anything, factual, in support of Russia in trouble.

I think that Russia remains under Putin's iron grip - for now. And although the Oligarchy may disagree with Putin about the war with Ukraine - they're not at the point where they'll risk open opposition.

Putin is simply going to grind this war out - it seems to be a stalemate - with, I think, time on Russia's side. That's my read of the war - but who knows - as I can't for sure trust anything in the youtube media about the war - and coverage by major news outlets is so sparse that there's little information there to judge.
 
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