SebastianBlue
President, International Julian Alvarez Fan Club
- Joined
- 25 Jul 2009
- Messages
- 56,236
As I have said several times in this thread, climate will be a major issue (especially in 5-10 years, and absolutely in 20), both on an off the pitch. Mean annual temperature in Saudi Arabia is currently projected to rise to 27-29 degrees by 2040; with another 3-5 degrees of warming by 2060. Night temperature in particular are rising faster than day temperatures, which is a major concern for the region. England will obviously also be warming along with it—and likely at a quicker pace—but the base mean annual temperature is much lower and so it will take much longer to reach even Saudi Arabia’s current mean annual temperatures. In fact, England isn’t forecast to get anywhere near their current mean annual temperature—by 2100 we’re forecast to reach 13-14 degrees. And there are more dire projections that have the Saudi region much higher than that much sooner based on continual updates of climate models using new data indicating the global feedback cycle is quickening (and strengthening) much faster than previously predicted. Even if the same holds true for England (and other Northern European nations), we’ll still be well off those temperatures for another century or so.
Now, Saudi Arabia has some capacity to mitigate a portion of the drastic impacts of that warming (and general weather pattern change), but not even they will have the needed resources to mitigate all of it, especially not the more severe weather events in the region likely to occur in the next two decades that may make parts of the country uninhabitable (the country already has vast swaths not conducive with mass human habitation as a starting point, in contrast with England and other parts of the world). And the vast majority of the mitigation will come in the form of interior climate control, which itself has significant implications, both for the people and the economy. The air conditioned stadiums they have built to make football even possible to play themselves actually make the problem worse; expanding that further will only act to accelerate change.
We’ve not even discussed the fact that Saudi Arabia is already one of the most water-scarce territories on earth and the warming trends forecast for the country Over the next two decades will only stretch their water reclamation and access programmes further. Many analysts see conflicts arising in the region over water as far more likely than over oil or other resources.
Some will point to their efforts to expand desalinisation capacity, but most researchers indicate that is an unsustainable practice, as there are environmental and economic thresholds for scaling that will mean it is unlikely to provide the necessary capacity for even their current population, much less the projections of growth the government have released for the next two decades. Other types of infrastructure, including energy and transport are likely to be pushed to their limits, as well. And the government continues to waste money on infeasible or farcical vanity and tourism projects like The Line, instead of investing more heavily in expanding and strengthening their vital infrastructure.
The climate challenges alone will make sustaining a “world class” sporting competition extremely difficult and resource intensive.
Beyond the very real issues with being able to sustain mass human habitation in the region, the travel distances/times between Saudi Arabia and the family homes and favourite holidaying locations of the players will be an issue, as well. Most of the top players are accustomed to being able to leave to visit their friends, family, and properties via a 4-5 our flight at most. Those times will now stretch to 10-12 hours (if they are based in Europe). Lower quality players have been willing to accept the inconveniences of that for awhile, of course, but the top players have not been interested. Now they are being convinced by the money. But how long they will tolerate the relative isolation will be quite interesting.
A somewhat related constraint (not problem, as there is not much that can be done to address it) is the time differences for global viewership. And before anyone brings up the World Cup in Qatar: a major global tournament that happens every four years is not the same as annual League compitieron with hundreds of games stretching over many months when it comes to viewership behaviour. The climate itself dictates that matches need to be played early morning or at night, meaning most games will air live in major football viewing markets very early or very late. This itself will limit viewership growth and thus broadcast interest and revenues.
I have spent quite a bit of time in Saudi Arabia (and the Middle East more generally) and I think the culture, whilst catering in some ways to the non-Muslim wealthy (as is the case in most of the Middle East), will also be an issue. Whilst most people are very hospitable and the Muslim faith demands visitors to be treated with respect, it is still an odd, divided experience as a non-Muslim in Saudi Arabia. And you are still expected to observe some cultural norms that are alien to most non-Muslim players. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that—we all are expected to honour the culture and customs of the country we are visiting. It can actually be quite interesting and enlightening. But over time it can be difficult when you actually live in a place that is quite different to the one you are accustomed to, especially in very basic ways; it can become quite isolating and it can impact your mental health (and, thus, your performance, whatever you do). No doubt the players’ every need and desire will be seen to—at least initially—but that does not always fully counteract the feeling of being so far outside one’s own culture. Culture clashes will absolutely happen and some players will struggle with it after awhile. Having experienced it myself, I can see that having a large impact on the non-Muslim players particularly.
By the way, as this post is already quite long, and I have been told no one really enjoys my deep dives in to the economics of football, I will just simply say that the US and Japan are not accurate analogs for the Saudi football project for many reasons (some indirectly which I have touched on), so using them for comparison or prediction of likely success is a deeply flawed assessment method. China is actually a much closer analog (though, obviously still not perfect), regardless of why exactly the expansion efforts failed. In fact, the impetus for the project itself is quite similar to the Saudi iteration. Except, this one has even more headwinds.
Of course, if the focus is only to mostly capture the best Muslim players in the world, then the culture differences won’t really be that much of an issue. But I don’t think that is the case. I think they want to create a draw for the best players in the world, regardless of faith or creed. And I think that is going to be a difficult task as things stand in Saudi Arabia right now.
These are all fundamental, existential problems with the longterm viability of the league as envisioned in this latest development project. Most of the issues do not have have many viable solutions, barring Saudi Arabia changing quite drastically from it’s current state, which I think is unlikely. And it takes time to develop a league capable of directly competing with the established ones in Europe—I would say 10-15 years at minimum to build the infrastructure (physical and commercial), quality, interest, broadcast reach, viewership, etc. in ideal conditions. They aren’t going to have that time. They need to do it in 5 years to have any hope of success, which I don’t think is possible. Not given the established prestige competition that already exists.
By the way, this is coming from perhaps one of the number one critics of the European league and governing bodies on the forum that lives in the US and so has also attended many MLS matches across the country and so has taken an interest in the development of the league. It has many problem, as well, that I won’t go in to here. It’s actually in a bit of a crisis generally (along with the USSF) right now, as it happens.
I would be happy to make a gentlemen’s bet about whether the league has fulfilled it’s rather lofty ambitions by 2044, but I am afraid it is extremely unlikely I will be alive 10 years from now (and certainly not in a capacity to discuss this again), much less 20.
So I will just say I wholly disagree with your assessment and believe the league is destined to fail.
That said, I think most leagues are going to struggle over that same 20 year timeframe, for many, many reason (economic, geopolitical, social, environmental), so I am much more pessimistic than you in general, I imagine.
TL;DR
The Saudi Arabian football development project is unlikely to succeed for many reasons, most unrelated to the competitiveness of the league itself.