metalblue
Well-Known Member
It's only a small part of the overall calculation.
As far as I can see, if they estimate that 3-7% of pupils will drop out of private education, then that's between £60-140m out of the estimated £2b tax take. If we took the midpoint and assumed that your "several people" were in fact every single one of them, then that's a £100m difference in a calculation that ends up at £1.3b-1.5b.
Of course, most people aren't going to be earning only to pay school fees, and giving up their jobs, so it's likely to be a much smaller effect. The calculations also include reduced VAT take from other spending.
As the article points out, the increase in household spending would only be in very low single figures, so it's unlikely to drastically reduce anyone's spending power.
Given ~9% are on some level of bursary a drop out rate of 3-7% is woefully optimistic.
More likely 15%. ~85,000 kids, £7k a year to educate in state school = £600m, VAT tax take on school fees will be £1.3bn, like I said they’ll be lucky to net get half the money.
Those in private education are currently “saving” the state education system nearly £4bn a year by attending private school.