So what’s so wrong with labour shortages driving up low wages?

But brexit has happened and you have a thread to moan about it on and none of you are shy about it.

Anyhow to the relevant points. Increased productivity is one thing but if someone's wages are artificially low then why should they have to increase productivity. Could a care worker care for more people than they do now? If not should they be forever subjected to shite pay?

Is the lorry supposed to carry more goods, drive faster?

The trailer is one size and the speed restricted:-)

Common sense tells me those on unfair low pay should get a rise. Can we get ourselves in a situation where pay rises too much due to lack of labour? Yes it certainly could. That's why a decent govt with a bit of forward planning is needed. We don't have one hardly the care workers fault.

A ready supply of labour is bad
A mass shortage of labour is bad

A lot have suffered from the first and we all suffer because our governments have taken the easy route for far too long. This will take a long time to put right or a short time if a bandaid is applied.

I expect a bandaid and a lot of you will welcome it. All of this is going to be a missed opportunity(the rich aside) but that's the problem with the staus quo. There is enough of you that makes change in this country impossible.

This is a good post, take home pay, and productivity have been decoupled from profit.

The ten minutes at the end of this video explains why, it's all to do with rentier capitalism and outsourcing to avoid paying people a living wage.

 
But brexit has happened and you have a thread to moan about it on and none of you are shy about it.

Anyhow to the relevant points. Increased productivity is one thing but if someone's wages are artificially low then why should they have to increase productivity. Could a care worker care for more people than they do now? If not should they be forever subjected to shite pay?

Is the lorry supposed to carry more goods, drive faster?

The trailer is one size and the speed restricted:-)

Common sense tells me those on unfair low pay should get a rise. Can we get ourselves in a situation where pay rises too much due to lack of labour? Yes it certainly could. That's why a decent govt with a bit of forward planning is needed. We don't have one hardly the care workers fault.

A ready supply of labour is bad
A mass shortage of labour is bad

A lot have suffered from the first and we all suffer because our governments have taken the easy route for far too long. This will take a long time to put right or a short time if a bandaid is applied.

I expect a bandaid and a lot of you will welcome it. All of this is going to be a missed opportunity(the rich aside) but that's the problem with the staus quo. There is enough of you that makes change in this country impossible.
Fair comment about what the problems are but what’s the long term solution that you think is needed.
 
What Germany chooses to spend its tax take on is unrelated to the impact of immigration on wages - but whilst on the subject, in real terms, there has been a real terms decline in both gross and take home pay in Germany.

Whilst I’m super pleased that “Bob” off bluemoon knows that immigration doesn’t suppress wages in real terms (despite no evidence to support this). You might like to take your carefully researched findings up with the IMF who have also concluded that immigration had resulted in a wage decline in Germany in the low income sectors that immigrants were mainly employed in. This is not to say immigration is bad for the economy per-se as immigrants will naturally create demand which creates employment further up the pay scale and the IMF rightly pointed this out. The risk is economies become over reliant on importing cheap labour as the aspirations of their own workforce result in a more skilled talent pool which might well store up future problems - the UK being exhibit A your honour.

Poland, as I previously stated has benefitted from emigration. Salaries in the middle skilled workforce (most likely to emigrate) has increased. In the low skill workforce (least likely to emigrate) it has gone down. Simple supply and demand. The Polish economy has done well out of FoM.

By evidence, do you mean citing real wage growth in European countries? Countries that have FoM? Countries that have a higher proportion of immigrants in their workforce than the UK?

German decline in wage growth seems to have stalled over the last 18 months. Can't imagine any recent event that may have stalled economic and wage growth and productivity. Absolute mystery.

Immigrants in low paid sectors that are traditionally staffed by migrants getting shafted on pay? Strengthen employment rights, enforce better working conditions. Minimum pay levels. And clarify immigrants. EU or non-EU workers? Because it is very true that non-EU workers can and are exploited more. They lack the legal protections afforded to EU workers.

And on Poland, you (again) forget that they are beneficiaries of immigration, largely from Ukraine. All of Europe does well out of FoM because it works, for the people and the economy.
 
Fair comment about what the problems are but what’s the long term solution that you think is needed.
It's a complete rethink and overhaul of how we do things. That would be very costly and time consuming even if we had a political party willing to take the chance with our electorate. We are talking decades here. It's why I always vote to change things because this model we use has no future.

It's against my interests and I would benefit from everything staying exactly as it is but it's not right. I am however absolutely certain nothing will change apart from a bad few years of inflation.

Prepare for austerity mark II and a complete u turn by this government.
 
By evidence, do you mean citing real wage growth in European countries? Countries that have FoM? Countries that have a higher proportion of immigrants in their workforce than the UK?

German decline in wage growth seems to have stalled over the last 18 months. Can't imagine any recent event that may have stalled economic and wage growth and productivity. Absolute mystery.

Immigrants in low paid sectors that are traditionally staffed by migrants getting shafted on pay? Strengthen employment rights, enforce better working conditions. Minimum pay levels. And clarify immigrants. EU or non-EU workers? Because it is very true that non-EU workers can and are exploited more. They lack the legal protections afforded to EU workers.

And on Poland, you (again) forget that they are beneficiaries of immigration, largely from Ukraine. All of Europe does well out of FoM because it works, for the people and the economy.

Ok, the IMF isn’t good enough for you. So let’s tackle this a different way.

Gross average wages in Germany in 2000 were 36,125 EUR… 36,125 equivalent in 2018 (per-COVID) is 46,930 EUR. Gross averages wages in Germany in 2018 was 42,177 EUR. So about 4,750 EUR lower in real terms.

Your turn…present your evidence to back up what you’re saying that wages have grown in real terms in Germany?
 
This is a good post, take home pay, and productivity have been decoupled from profit.

The ten minutes at the end of this video explains why, it's all to do with rentier capitalism and outsourcing to avoid paying people a living wage.



I think it’s called the Philips Curve. The theory being that increasing GDP should result in equally increasing pay but hasn’t for the last 20 odd years.
 
But brexit has happened and you have a thread to moan about it on and none of you are shy about it.

Anyhow to the relevant points. Increased productivity is one thing but if someone's wages are artificially low then why should they have to increase productivity. Could a care worker care for more people than they do now? If not should they be forever subjected to shite pay?

Is the lorry supposed to carry more goods, drive faster?

The trailer is one size and the speed restricted:-)

Common sense tells me those on unfair low pay should get a rise. Can we get ourselves in a situation where pay rises too much due to lack of labour? Yes it certainly could. That's why a decent govt with a bit of forward planning is needed. We don't have one hardly the care workers fault.

A ready supply of labour is bad
A mass shortage of labour is bad

A lot have suffered from the first and we all suffer because our governments have taken the easy route for far too long. This will take a long time to put right or a short time if a bandaid is applied.

I expect a bandaid and a lot of you will welcome it. All of this is going to be a missed opportunity(the rich aside) but that's the problem with the staus quo. There is enough of you that makes change in this country impossible.

This thread exists because of Brexit. As a country, we have chronically underinvested in everything, from skills to health, to education to social care. Our solution for our ‘problems’ was to torch relations with our nearest neighbours which has led to even less private and public investment, particularly to poorer regions. I mean, bravo, that was bright.

So we set fire to everything, and you’re moaning about people trying to put out the fire? What did you expect to happen? Certainly wasn't to address any of the core issues in a competent manner because we gave the job to an idiot and a party that created the fucking core issues in the first place.

Sometimes, a country gets what it voted for. Enjoy it.
 
Ok, the IMF isn’t good enough for you. So let’s tackle this a different way.

Gross average wages in Germany in 2000 were 36,125 EUR… 36,125 equivalent in 2018 (per-COVID) is 46,930 EUR. Gross averages wages in Germany in 2018 was 42,177 EUR. So about 4,750 EUR lower in real terms.

Your turn…present your evidence to back up what you’re saying that wages have grown in real terms in Germany?

Happy to. First, some history. Germany struggled during the nineties and the early 2000’s. Why? Primarily the unification of West and East Germany.

The shock of absorbing an economy with 16m people, thousands of outdated smokestack factories and a 50-year legacy of central planning would have brought any economy to its knees,”

Wage growth was flat during the 2000’s, even dipped in 2007, but inflation was low too.

During the 2000’s East European countries started joining the EU, but Germany exercised a brake on FoM for several years, in part because they were still absorbing East Germany.

So wage growth from 2000 to 2010 was flat - 36,125 to 37,291. After 2010, and during the global financial crisis, the problems of reunification had worked their way through the system, the brakes were removed on East European migration and the economy grew (despite the financial crisis). Wage levels increased from 37,291 to 42,828 against average annual inflation of just over 1%. A big difference to the previous ten years.

You will note I used 2010 as a cut off point earlier, because I cut the Germans a break in absorbing East Germany which was a broken state at the time and done at a huge cost to the economy overall. What is is interesting is that the last decade of wage growth, above the rate of inflation, was done when German had full FoM with Eastern Europe. This easily accessible labour was a boon to productivity and GDP, and also wage growth in real terms.
 
I think it’s called the Philips Curve. The theory being that increasing GDP should result in equally increasing pay but hasn’t for the last 20 odd years.

It doesn't really work in a rentier capitalism system. As the outsourcing lawyer in the video said "why else would we be doing this (constructing a deliberately complex relationship between employer and employee)?".

The only hope is that rentier capitalism system blows itself apart and the traditional bargaining power is restored by some means (reliant on government intervention in reshaping the economy).


The Graph shows a clear break between the “Golden Age” curve of 1949-1983 and the “Neoliberal Period” curve of 1994-2011. The former period was characterized by mostly increased wage share growth and the later by declining wage share growth.

Shaikh hypothesizes that the shift in the curve that took place during the 1984-1993 period was a
result of the Reagan-Thatcher repression of labor, and dismantling of progressive redistribution in favor of policies causing regressive redistribution.

Key factors might be the aggressive war against unions and precipitous decline in unionization rates, massive reduction in the top marginal income tax rates, the legalization of stock options as a form of executive pay, stopping enforcement of sanctions against employer hiring of undocumented immigrants, and continued deregulation of finance.

The evidence presented by Shaikh strongly suggests that unless the ex-ante Golden Age balance of class power is restored to labor, the U.S. economy will suffer from a continued politically and economically unstable decline in labor share and deflationary or low inflation economy.



 

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