Sturgeon wants another referendum

[Pep's Army]

May can deny a referendum from what I read. Think she should argue that Brexit negotiations and the fact that they recently had a referendum means no new referendum.

 

[shootmeifipost10k]

I'm feeling alot of anger on bluemoon on this thread,it is up there on the religious ones the way things are going, it might not reach the middle east palestine israel proportions but if another referendum doesn't happen before Brexit it might have potential

 

[mcfc1632]

I find it baffling the amount of rage and unpleasantness on here from mainly English people against Scotland daring to want to go it alone. Can anyone explain why you are so angry about this? I happen to think Sturgeon should be made to wait until after we Brexit but I can't understand for the life of me the bitterness towards her.

I think you have this wrong

I think that most on here, mirror the likely wider UK view, that other than the SNP followers, people have a degree of indifference about whether Scotland have another Referendum or not. It is simply not as an important a topic as those obsessed SNP followers would wish it to be.

The clear point though is in your stated view "...Sturgeon should be made to wait until after we Brexit...." - this entirely right and a lot of people across the UK will be getting sick and tired of hearing this woman's voice banging on about her own narrow self-interest whilst frankly the UK as much more important matters to handle

Why should the rest of the UK be distracted in this very important period to pander to the 1.5m SNP voters?

The answer is obvious - it should not be.

This thread is a microcosm with MP in the role of Sturgeon banging on about his narrow view whilst clearly in a small minority.

It is all a distraction and of no real importance in the wider scheme of things. May is under absolutely no pressure, indeed the opposite, from the vast majority of the UK electorate to pander to Sturgeon's rantings - therefore she will simply refuse to bother discussing Indyref2 at any length - let alone getting distracted by considering the demands

The only game(s) available to Sturgeon is to publically bang on about Indyref2 to try and keep it relevant. She knows that having one arranged before 2021 is a lost cause - and she therefore desperately needs to keep the subject 'on the boil' and in the Scottish public focus for several years. This will be very hard for her to do whilst the Brexit negotiations are happening.

At the same time she will be working in Brussels to try and get some agreement for Scotland's accession following Brexit which will be essential for any future Indyref2 to have any chance of a Yes vote - along with trying to wring even more devolved powers out of Westminster.

That is exactly what she is doing behind the scenes

I think that Sturgeon and the SNP will be facing something of a crisis / dilemma come the 2020 GE.

Just what will be her manifesto pledges then if she has not be able to secure a guarantee from the EU that accession is a formality.

OK, the idea of Brexit was less popular in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK, but that it is happening is increasingly becoming a fact. If it has actually occurred by 2020, I wonder what the views will be of a lot of Scottish voters to a manifesto pledge for an exit from the UK if there is no guaranteed accession.

In this highly possible situation just consider the challenge for the SNP in setting out their manifesto against a background of:

• The UK has left the EU
• 38% of Scottish voters actually voted for leaving the EU
• There is no guarantee of accession to the EU for an independent Scotland, only
• Some years of uncertainty whilst the application is processed and Scotland strives to meet the accession and convergence criteria

 

[mcfc1632]

I'm feeling alot of anger on bluemoon on this thread,it is up there on the religious ones the way things are going, it might not reach the middle east palestine israel proportions but if another referendum doesn't happen before Brexit it might have potential

Well, I can understand that it might feel that way at the moment

But the fact that there is in reality zero potential for an Indyref2 before Brexit, I suspect will actually mean that this thread will likely drift into a state of torpor, kept alive my the frustrations of the few SNP champions, whilst the rest of us increasingly don't give a fuck and will be busy posting on threads relating to more consequential matters over the coming years.

 

[shootmeifipost10k]

Well, I can understand that it might feel that way at the moment

But the fact that there is in reality zero potential for an Indyref2 before Brexit, I suspect will actually mean that this thread will likely drift into a state of torpor, kept alive my the frustrations of the few SNP champions, whilst the rest of us increasingly don't give a fuck and will be busy posting on threads relating to more consequential matters over the coming years.

It will be kept alive by the constant politics being done now by Sturgeon it will continue all the way up to any referendum or annoucement on one, as you say in your post above there isn't really an option open to her apart from political gesturing. I've no doubt both sides would have known this was coming and what each side was going to say and their replies beforehand.
I'd be dissappointed if I was pro indendant Scottish and Sturgeon as leader of the SNP didn't do exaclty as she is now, at the min she is in a no win no lose situation. This changes if the UK negotiate a good Brexit or the UK is doing ok during negotiations, so she has to whip up support now before that possible outcome happens and then keep them onside.

Politics, it's mostly bluff and shouting

 

[mcfc1632]

It will be kept alive by the constant politics being done now by Sturgeon it will continue all the way up to any referendum or annoucement on one, as you say in your post above there isn't really an option open to her apart from political gesturing. I've no doubt both sides would have known this was coming and what each side was going to say and their replies beforehand.
I'd be dissappointed if I was pro indendant Scottish and Sturgeon as leader of the SNP didn't do exaclty as she is now, at the min she is in a no win no lose situation. This changes if the UK negotiate a good Brexit or the UK is doing ok during negotiations, so she has to whip up support now before that possible outcome happens and then keep them onside.

Politics, it's mostly bluff and shouting

I fully agree re Sturgeon's position - I just edited my previous post to include some of the challenges the SNP will face as it approaches the 2020 GE let alone a subsequent Indyref2.

You are absolutely right that Sturgeon has to "....to whip up support now before that possible outcome happens and then keep them onside.", but

It will be really hard as the public consciousness drifts onto other matters 'of the moment' for Surgeon to maintain the Scottish populace in a state of angst and at the same time increasing the level of public support for an independent Scotland.

With the latest polls still showing a lead for a No vote, if she has failed to substantially increase that level of support during recent times when the conditions are favourable, what is the real chance of that happening in the coming years.

IMO, there are only 2 possible scenarios where there could/would be a Yes vote in an Indyref2

1. If the referendum was to be held prior to completion of Brexit

2. If the referendum was held in following the next GE and there was a cast-iron guarantee of EU accession - rather than some potential

As the first simply is not going to happen and the 2nd, given all the hurdles to be overcome with regard gaining the unanimous agreement of the 27 EU countries, is highly unlikely, the SNP are indeed going to face some real challenges in the coming years.

They have been riding a populist surge in recent years - it is likely, IMO, that the best that they can achieve is the wringing out of Westminster of more devolved powers. Sturgeon and Salmond probably know this and it must hurt like hell.

 

[inbetween]

Correct. And yet the brainwashed fools fawn over her every word and ignore the majority in scotland, how can this be allowed to happen in a modern society? Make no mistake,she has underestimated the silent majority again.

She has a point though, she was elected on a pledge to bring about another referendum if the circumstances of membership of the UK changed. Millions voted for UKIP demanding a referendum, are we seriously going to accept that all those people who voted leave including Farage wouldn't be demanding a second referendum if it had gone the other way?

Leaving the EU is a huge change and I think there is no reason to deny them anything. What is there to fear because if they voted to leave then who is to deny them that, if they vote to stay then Sturgeon and the purpose of the SNP for that matter will be totally destroyed.

Personally I think the sentiment would decide such a vote, does Scotland really care enough about the EU to leave the UK, I'm not so sure but it was very close the last time they were asked..

It's ironic on here that many in the wake of the EU referendum voted for democracy and sovereignty but are prepared to stand in the way of that when it comes to national matters. Personally I don't see the problem, if they want to leave then that is their choice isn't it, again it's ironic after the last year but isn't choice what we ourselves voted for..?

 

[cibaman]

She has a point though, she was elected on a pledge to bring about another referendum if the circumstances of membership of the UK changed. Millions voted for UKIP demanding a referendum, are we seriously going to accept that all those people who voted leave including Farage wouldn't be demanding a second referendum if it had gone the other way?

Leaving the EU is a huge change and I think there is no reason to deny them anything. What is there to fear because if they voted to leave then who is to deny them that, if they vote to stay then Sturgeon and the purpose of the SNP for that matter will be totally destroyed.

Personally I think the sentiment would decide such a vote, does Scotland really care enough about the EU to leave the UK, I'm not so sure but it was very close the last time they were asked..

It's ironic on here that many in the wake of the EU referendum voted for democracy and sovereignty but are prepared to stand in the way of that when it comes to national matters. Personally I don't see the problem, if they want to leave then that is their choice isn't it, again it's ironic after the last year but isn't choice what we ourselves voted for..?

Its part of the job description for the leader of the SNP to keep asking for a referendum. They only need to win once. Whenever circumstances arise that give a plausible reason for a referendum, such as the Brexit vote, the leader of the SNP hasnt much choice other than to bang the drum.

 

[Magicpole]

OK, Mr Pole. Let's take a closer look at these 2015 general election outcomes:

SNP: 1,454,436 votes. 56 seats
Lib Dem: 2,415,888 votes. 8 seats
UKIP: 3,881,129 votes. 1 seat

And you say the system is fixed against you?

We only have in 58 seats. Maybe if all the Ukippers could congregate in a part of the land that maybe they could call their country and then their return might see them able to sweep all before them.

It's the system. I remember studying the alternatives for my higher. The justification was to provide stable government. I take your point though.

Each seat we had an average of just under 26,000 votes where they mattered.

How many votes did the Tories get?

 

[Centurions]

We only have in 58 seats. Maybe if all the Ukippers could congregate in a part of the land that maybe they could call their country and then their return might see them able to sweep all before them.

It's the system. I remember studying the alternatives for my higher. The justification was to provide stable government. I take your point though.

Each seat we had an average of just under 26,000 votes where they mattered.

How many votes did the Tories get?

it was 56 (no idea why you keep persisting with this figure of 58 but facts aren't your strong suit) but of course you're down to 54 due to 2 of them being/been under investigation by the police for corruption/fraud (they're now listed as independent, lol).

Isn't one of your reasons for wanting to leave, to get away from the corrupt Westminster rule?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

The UK government needs to represent the UK people and as far as they are concerned there is no desperate desire to 'keep you'.

Take a look at this thread - we are not that desperate to keep you at all - have you really read many - actually any - posts that would demonstrate that we are?

No of course not - quite the opposite

It is only the sections of the Scottish communities that think the world should revolve around them - the 5m tail wagging the 60m dog. No we just think that you should get over yourselves - now is not your turn or time - next year won't we either nor any before 2021 - and the vast majority of UK citizens are totally fine with that

I have expressed broadly in such terms.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

A lot of the above scenarios assume a hard Sexit.

But, as some of us FOCs know, soft Sexit is also a possibility.

Following Brexit Lithuania, followed by Portugal have decided to secede from the EU.
The BBC quoting Jean-Claude Juncker, ''First Lixit, then Porxit.''

 

[sir baconface]

Following Brexit Lithuania, followed by Portugal have decided to secede from the EU.
The BBC quoting Jean-Claude Juncker, ''First Lixit, then Porxit.''

Haha. Can't wait for the video.

 

[steviemc]

It's ironic on here that many in the wake of the EU referendum voted for democracy and sovereignty but are prepared to stand in the way of that when it comes to national matters. Personally I don't see the problem, if they want to leave then that is their choice isn't it, again it's ironic after the last year but isn't choice what we ourselves voted for..?

No, it's not ironic at all. When you're part of a democratic UK, then priority should rightly be given to major issues that are currently affecting the UK. The single biggest issue affecting the UK at the moment is Brexit, by a country mile.

Why on earth should Westminster put the whim of Sturgeons attempted breakup of the union in front of others at such an important time for UK politics? The Scottish supposed once in a generation independence vote was only 2 years ago. Nobody is suggesting that there won't be opportunity for another referendum on Scottish independence in the future, but it's not going to happen at a time when it could be potentially damaging to the UK. Sturgeon tried to play the opportunist game and failed. It takes a great deal of naivety to believe that EU membership has any real importance at the heart of her political scheming.

 

[sir baconface]

Well, like her or not, Nicola has whipped up plenty of discussion. Our Brexit thread has fallen to p2 as this one rages on.

She and Salmond are actually pretty astute and personable politicians: a cut above the average.

 

[steviemc]

Of course I have noticed the desire to tell us to fuck off. It's nearly every post. How we will run up a bigger debt
than Africa. How we will come back begging to be let back and promise not to get drunk and cause fights in shopping centres, blah mc blah.

I'm talking about the people who know the real cost and aren't as keen.

I hope for one minute you're not suggesting Sturgeon fits this criteria. Please tell me you don't get mugged off that easily?

 

[Damocles]

Of course I have noticed the desire to tell us to fuck off. It's nearly every post. How we will run up a bigger debt
than Africa. How we will come back begging to be let back and promise not to get drunk and cause fights in shopping centres, blah mc blah.

I'm talking about the people who know the real cost and aren't as keen.

You'll survive without the UK, of course you will. Nobody is stupid enough to run up the debt to extreme levels while maintaining those levels of public investment.

What WILL happen though as a consequence of independence is that free University will be gone almost immediately. Public service investment will take a hit in numerous areas. Scotland won't become a wasteland but it will not be as well of for investment as it is today.

And if the Islands decide to stay with the UK rather than go with Scotland then you could have a really bad time in terms of claiming the oh-so-important oil due to the equidistant rule of territorial waters.

May cannot stop it, it's a manifesto pledge and voted for.

Technically May is under no obligation at all to allow a Scottish referendum and could just bareface say "no" and that would be the end of it until we had a new PM who could do the same. The Scots can't declare their own referendum obviously, it has to be granted to them and there's little reason to do so.

 

[blue cigar]

She has a point though, she was elected on a pledge to bring about another referendum if the circumstances of membership of the UK changed. Millions voted for UKIP demanding a referendum, are we seriously going to accept that all those people who voted leave including Farage wouldn't be demanding a second referendum if it had gone the other way?

Leaving the EU is a huge change and I think there is no reason to deny them anything. What is there to fear because if they voted to leave then who is to deny them that, if they vote to stay then Sturgeon and the purpose of the SNP for that matter will be totally destroyed.

Personally I think the sentiment would decide such a vote, does Scotland really care enough about the EU to leave the UK, I'm not so sure but it was very close the last time they were asked..

It's ironic on here that many in the wake of the EU referendum voted for democracy and sovereignty but are prepared to stand in the way of that when it comes to national matters. Personally I don't see the problem, if they want to leave then that is their choice isn't it, again it's ironic after the last year but isn't choice what we ourselves voted for..?

We had a referendum in 2014, a once in a lifetime vote according to salmond and sturgeon. The fact there has been a eu vote is imaterial, they will always agitate for another referendum ignoring the 2 million no voters who wish to be part of the uk. If you start overiding democracy then we are in a dark place. All people ask is that governments respectt he results of referendums regardless. Its very simple when its boiled down.
The snp did well at the last ge as a protest vote not because of a desire from the people of scotland to have another vote, all indicators point to the opposite so they can quote manifestos all they want.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

You'll survive without the UK, of course you will. Nobody is stupid enough to run up the debt to extreme levels while maintaining those levels of public investment.

What WILL happen though as a consequence of independence is that free University will be gone almost immediately. Public service investment will take a hit in numerous areas. Scotland won't become a wasteland but it will not be as well of for investment as it is today.

And if the Islands decide to stay with the UK rather than go with Scotland then you could have a really bad time in terms of claiming the oh-so-important oil due to the equidistant rule of territorial waters.



Technically May is under no obligation at all to allow a Scottish referendum and could just bareface say "no" and that would be the end of it until we had a new PM who could do the same. The Scots can't declare their own referendum obviously, it has to be granted to them and there's little reason to do so.

This is what the SNP lovers are singularly refusing to accept. Any decision on future referenda are in the gift of the
British PM, I don't think she even has to consult parliament. The inconsequential pipsqueak, Farron is still banging on
about a referendum after Brexit is concluded, even though all amendments proposed by his half a dozen MP's and sundry
other bad losers, egged on by Gina G and Rod Stewart, have been roundly rejected.
It matters not one jot what the SNP, call for, it carries no weight whatsoever, and is rightly being ignored by the PM,
why they think they have a chance is baffling, other than a chest puffing overstatement of their importance.

 

[Centurions]

It matters not one jot what the SNP, call for, it carries no weight whatsoever, and is rightly being ignored by the PM,
why they think they have a chance is baffling, other than a chest puffing overstatement of their importance.

I think it's more a case of making sure that people haven't forgotten them which considering they're actually in power up here is sad. Never mind, at least Magicpole still believes in them, he always reminds me of Pratchett's 'Small Gods' book. Perhaps I should call him Brutha from now on.