Tempering the Guardiola Optimism

I haven't watched Bayern much but am starting to try and catch some of their games - bit of a pain that BT Sport is only on our main TV and I am the only football fan in the household - but have just finished Pep confidential and watched Barca extensively when Pep was there. He does seem to have become ever more flexible in his formations but I think he likes to have full backs in most of them. Even that line-up above does include two guys - Lahm and Alaba - who have a little bit of experience at FB :-)i

I think Pep will have to go slowly at first with City in terms of formations and tactical changes; it's one of the reasons that I am already hoping Pep falls in love with the place and we can squeeze a fourth year out of him. To start with he is going to have to focus on getting the team to run more, to pass better and quicker, to mark zonally, to move as a unit and master his positional play basics. I think doing all that will be enough at first; without complicating it with three at the back formations. I would expect him to go with back fours and a 4-3-3 base but push the full backs into midfield and have the pivote frequently act like a CB so that we often resemble a 3-4-3 when we attack. I certainly hope that is how he starts and builds the foundations in the first season and slowly but surely adds layers of sophistication as the players either grasp what he wants or get replaced by ones that do.

I'm looking forward, amongst other things, to the end of the 18 yard offside trap that failed miserably again yesterday (it really is suicide against decent opposition sat right on top of us), and to City midfielders tracking runners. I lost count of how many simple dink round the corner 1-2's undid us yesterday. I'm also looking forward to seeing what he can sculpt out of young Manu Garcia, who had some lovely touches yesterday
 
I'm looking forward, amongst other things, to the end of the 18 yard offside trap that failed miserably again yesterday (it really is suicide against decent opposition sat right on top of us), and to City midfielders tracking runners. I lost count of how many simple dink round the corner 1-2's undid us yesterday. I'm also looking forward to seeing what he can sculpt out of young Manu Garcia, who had some lovely touches yesterday

This is Pellegrinis one and only tactic and it is atrocious. It is one of the main reasons we have gone from the best defence in the league to an absolute laughing stock in the space of 18 months. The sooner he and his one tactic are gone, the better.
 
I haven't watched Bayern much but am starting to try and catch some of their games - bit of a pain that BT Sport is only on our main TV and I am the only football fan in the household - but have just finished Pep confidential and watched Barca extensively when Pep was there. He does seem to have become ever more flexible in his formations but I think he likes to have full backs in most of them. Even that line-up above does include two guys - Lahm and Alaba - who have a little bit of experience at FB :-)i

I think Pep will have to go slowly at first with City in terms of formations and tactical changes; it's one of the reasons that I am already hoping Pep falls in love with the place and we can squeeze a fourth year out of him. To start with he is going to have to focus on getting the team to run more, to pass better and quicker, to mark zonally, to move as a unit and master his positional play basics. I think doing all that will be enough at first; without complicating it with three at the back formations. I would expect him to go with back fours and a 4-3-3 base but push the full backs into midfield and have the pivote frequently act like a CB so that we often resemble a 3-4-3 when we attack. I certainly hope that is how he starts and builds the foundations in the first season and slowly but surely adds layers of sophistication as the players either grasp what he wants or get replaced by ones that do.[/QUOTE

What makes Pep so interesting and exciting is that he gets better results than anyone else but is nowhere near as predictable as anyone else. We all know what we're going to face with Mourinho, we know how Pellers will play every week and we suspect United will make a million passes before trying a shot at goal. There are characteristics which Pep's teams share - they are technically very good, they pass the ball well and they run further and more purposefully than other teams - but his formations and tactics do show subtle changes from one match to another and I have no idea what to expect, other than that I won't get what I expect. Pep will surprise us all. What does seem to be the case is that we're getting an obsessive who thinks endlessly about the next match and plans to the minutest detail, coaches the players to understand their role and be able to play it. He sees weaknesses in opponents that no-one else can. The end product is excellent results through very attractive football. He simply has a better football brain (which never stops working) than anyone else. It's not possible for City fans not to be excited about next season, and the season after and the season after that! A fourth season? He won't feel under the same pressure as he was at Barcelona, and he'll have much greater freedom of action than at Bayern. Fingers crossed!
 
Being in Germany is the perfect footballing 'middle ground' between Spain & England imo. He has adapted to crosses or direct ball as well as the 'tka taka' stuff.

Not only that, but Bayern had more empty seats at weekend, than City would if playing vs a 3rd div team in the League Cup, so he's even getting some training for that ;)
 
I'm looking forward, amongst other things, to the end of the 18 yard offside trap that failed miserably again yesterday (it really is suicide against decent opposition sat right on top of us), and to City midfielders tracking runners. I lost count of how many simple dink round the corner 1-2's undid us yesterday. I'm also looking forward to seeing what he can sculpt out of young Manu Garcia, who had some lovely touches yesterday
I was talking to someone about this last night and I asked the question how long might it take to train this shit out of them? After nearly three years it now looks totally ingrained into every one of our defenders to step up without even thinking, regardless of the situation. Is it realistic that they will just be able to stop doing it immediately when they have to make snap decisions in matches or will it take a while for them to get back to instinctively tracking runners etc?
 
I'm looking forward, amongst other things, to the end of the 18 yard offside trap that failed miserably again yesterday (it really is suicide against decent opposition sat right on top of us), and to City midfielders tracking runners. I lost count of how many simple dink round the corner 1-2's undid us yesterday. I'm also looking forward to seeing what he can sculpt out of young Manu Garcia, who had some lovely touches yesterday

Looked like Chelsea had done their prep on how to exploit the offside trap. I too want to see the back of it. Pep will defend in a whole different way.
 
I have always thought that our offside has been superbly marshalled up till now. The Chelsea game was the first time I have seen a team constantly time their run perfectly through our defence.
 
What we must not do is go from one extreme to another and expect too little next season. The media is working hard to convince us that Pep has only had success at two clubs which would have been similarly successful had a monkey been appointed instead of Pep. This theory is based on the 'istry and tradition argument so beloved of the fans of one or two of our rivals. In fact Barca were certainly not the all devouring, best club side in the world or anything like it. They had won the CL in 2006, largely as a result of work don by Ferran and Txiki, but by the time Pep was appointed in 2008, they were busy working their way down the pan again.

At the end of season 2007-8 Barcelona had finished 3rd in La Liga, a whopping 18pts behind Real and 10 behind (Pellegrini's) Villareal. Both these clubs had done the double over Barca, which had only 67pts. They had only 67 pts, had lost 9 matches and scored 76 goals and let in 43. Next season they would have to come through the qualifying round of the CL.

Enter Pep. He did not spend a fortune in the transfer market and his only purchase of significance was Pique from you know who. This lad was of huge significance for the future but was hardly a stellar signing in 2008. More importantly Pep got rid of Ronaldinho and Deko, who were stellar names but also disruptive influences at the club.

After a slow start Pep's team got going. With 87 pts they won the league by 9pts, lost only 5 league matches (half as many as any other team), scored 105 goals (letting in only 35 in 38 matches), did a clean sweep of domestic honours, beat the biggest club in the world (which had hundreds of millions of fans locked out of the ground without tickets) to win the CL and entered the realms of legend by winning every major honour it could compete for in the calendar year. A season later the team set a record of 99 pts in the league. The dominant club of today is not the club to which Pep owes his success, but is, of course, the creation of Pep Guardiola: a club which wins more matches, loses fewer, scores more goals, lets in fewer and wins more trophies than ever before. At Bayern he has not (yet) won the CL but the performance of the team shows those same characteristics as Barca.

So, I'm going to stay very enthusiastic indeed, thanks.

Excellent post. I keep reading about how excited people are to see Pep's signings. I take the opposite view, I'm more excited to see how much he improves our current players.

Part of me wishes he'd sign absolutely no one, just go in to next season with this same squad of players. We'd comfortably win the league, Guardiola would prove what an outstanding coach he is, and the limitations of the current manager would be highlighted for anyone still in doubt.
 
I have always thought that our offside has been superbly marshalled up till now. The Chelsea game was the first time I have seen a team constantly time their run perfectly through our defence.
There have been other occasions where we have got it wrong repeatedly. Sevilla at home was pretty bad. My main issue with it is that even when we generally get it right and we are well drilled, it is basically just a really bad plan for various reasons.
 

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