The 70 pt Trajectory

[Prestwich_Blue]

I did an analysis of the last 3 seasons and split it into home and away points. In a nutshell, you needed an average of 2.15 points per home game and 1.65 away. This would give 73 points so I rounded it down a little (to 2.09 and 1.59) to give 70 points.

To be on target we should have 51 points from the games we've played (13 hone and 15 away) and we've got 50. We're above the trajectory at home but below it away so a couple of away wins in the next 3 games should see us on target.

 

[DenisLawBackHeel74]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[blue 45]

-any team that has won 20 games in premier league has at least been in top 4 so we need 6 more can we do it -I think we can -sorry 7

 

[Wrighty Wrexham]

Draws at home to Burnley Hull and Fulham could cost us dearly!

 

[WEMBLEY76]

Getting into the top 4 to me is better than winning a Cup (potential wise) for next season.It proves consistency over a 38 match period,not just winning 6 games,Discuss........

 

[Wrighty Wrexham]

Getting into the top 4 to me is better than winning a Cup (potential wise) for next season.It proves consistency over a 38 match period,not just winning 6 games,Discuss........

Rather a Cup TBH top 4 is worthless if we get knock out in the qualifyier ala Everton!!!

 

[Lancet Fluke]

Who knows what it will take to get 4th place? Liverpool are shit and the only thing they seem to have going for them is that they have experience of situations of this gravity. Spurs have had their inconsistencies, have key injuries, play united, chelsea and Arsenal in a row and have the Cup to distract/tire them. Villa are 1-0 grinders for me and when it comes to the end of the season and everyone is fighting for something, I think they will start slipping up, particularly as they don't have a huge squad and are still in the cup. Wouldn't surpirse me at all if we don't need 70 points but if we do, I reckon we have easily as good a chance as anyone else of getting them. Mancini is learning from some of the mistakes he made a few weeks ago and I think our form (which has been pretty decent anyway) will pick up even further.

 

[ono]

spurs also have Arsenal, Chelsea & the rags all after each other so if we can get points against villa & spurs then i think we will get 4th

Spurs only have 4 home games left and 2 of them are against Chelsea and Arsenal i believe. Then they us and United away.

In fact they have a run of Chelsea, United and Arsenal (maybe not in that order) so a lot will depend on how well they perform in the games either side of them 3. If they drop points either side of those games, then imo, barring a mircale, they'll be out of the race.

If we beat Villa and Spurs, i reckon we'll take it. I'm still worried about Liverpool. Despite them playing poorly, they've won their last 6 at home (probably 7 after tonight) and they have almost a fully fit squad with the experience to clinch 4th, and unless we win our game in hand we'll only be 2 or 3 points ahead (depending on our result against Everton).

 

[kippax neil]

Getting into the top 4 to me is better than winning a Cup (potential wise) for next season.It proves consistency over a 38 match period,not just winning 6 games,Discuss........

Rather a Cup TBH top 4 is worthless if we get knock out in the qualifyier ala Everton!!!

Winning a cup is great but it won't necessarily attract top drawer players in the summer, qualifying for the Champions League will.

 

[Lancet Fluke]

Rather a Cup TBH top 4 is worthless if we get knock out in the qualifyier ala Everton!!!

Winning a cup is great but it won't necessarily attract top drawer players in the summer, qualifying for the Champions League will.

Spot on. If Spurs win the cup and come 5th nobody in Europe will notice. And as long as we buy some top quality players before the qualifying round, we'll be ok lol.