The battle for 4th place

[The slaughtered lamb]

Ha yeah now Cheltenham was great which is why books have tightened up since-I can only get money down in shops these days..

I blame Mullins mate. He's turned it into a procession. Never seen the likes of it at Cheltenham.

 

[mancity1]

Bookmakers base their odds on what they believe others, the majority of punters, are thinking, that's how they make their money

They actually make their money by framing a market that is designed to mirror the actual betting on the market in the lead up to the event.

When that occurs or is closely mirrored they will make a profit on the event equal to the percentage above 100 per cent ( a true random outcome ) that they have framed.

It doesn't always happen in any particular event but if an unusual or unplanned betting pattern eventuates they can reduce their losses by mirroring the betting patterns themselves on other bookmakers.

The percentages or probability of an outcome are set to anything above 100 per cent and if betting mirrors those percentages they make that residual on every dollar bet.

Let's say they set their book to 130 per cent throughout betting and the betting mirrors those percentages on each outcome they will return a profit of $ 30 dollars on every $ 100 bet.

Quite simple really if you know the basics of probability and the fact that the sum of all outcomes in a random event is equal to one.

In real life of course people don't always bet to the odds offered hence the fluctuation in odds throughout betting to keep the outcome as close to the sum of percentages as possible.

 

[Bill]

I keep reading posts about Pellegrini only being interested in th c/l but we won all the league games either side of the PSG games, he seems to have got those selections just right to me, and the changes against Newcastle were more or less enforced.

hogwash. he stitched us up at Newcastle.

 

[mosssideblue]

hogwash. he stitched us up at Newcastle.

I'm sorry, but I find that comment absolutely ridiculous.

 

[MSM]

Bookmakers base their odds on what they believe others, the majority of punters, are thinking, that's how they make their money

100% factually incorrect.

 

[Bill]

I'm sorry, but I find that comment absolutely ridiculous.

fine by me. I happen to think he's at it. no possible other reason for his rotation policy. before the game he came out and said "we must not rely on winning the CL to secure our place for next season, we must finish top 4 in the league" he then puts the wrong side out (again) puts players in the wrong positions (again) and makes the wrong substitutions during the game(again).

at 1-1 and seriously flagging and in need of a goal he brings on the completely out of form Bony (AGAIN) instead of the kid who scores every time he plays.

now if you could tell why this is so i'd love to hear it, cos i'm fucking stumped.

 

[mosssideblue]

fine by me. I happen to think he's at it. no possible other reason for his rotation policy. before the game he came out and said "we must not rely on winning the CL to secure our place for next season, we must finish top 4 in the league" he then puts the wrong side out (again) puts players in the wrong positions (again) and makes the wrong substitutions during the game(again).

at 1-1 and seriously flagging and in need of a goal he brings on the completely out of form Bony (AGAIN) instead of the kid who scores every time he plays.

now if you could tell why this is so i'd love to hear it, cos i'm fucking stumped.

Bill. You are better than this.
I could make shit up (like some do on here) and say he had no other option because everyone else avail was carrying a knock, or everyone else was piss poor in training all week, or nacho was injured/feeling unwell. (being factual, he hasn't scored every time he has been on the pitch). I don't know why he picked Bony over Nacho, but he will have his reason (maybe didn't want to risk injury as we need him as back up for Tuesday - I don't know, and I would suspect no one on this forum knows).

The simple matter is that we do not know what constraints he has to operate under and with what resources he has available. That team he selected against the bar codes was more than capable of beating Newcastle (irrespective of what positions they played in). The fact they down tools for a day, well no manager in the world can mitigate for that. Would you agree?

To suggest he is deliberately throwing the league is nonsense and I think deep down you could possibly see that. We are probably one of the worlds best clubs and to have a manager being a loose cannon with the reputation of the club, is not something I could see the board sweeping under the carpet - do you?

As I said, I understand your frustration at where we are in the league, the way we are playing etc, and I too am royally disappointed, but IMO, no way is Pellegrini deliberately doing this to harm us.

 

[Bill]

Bill. You are better than this.
I could make shit up (like some do on here) and say he had no other option because everyone else avail was carrying a knock, or everyone else was piss poor in training all week, or nacho was injured/feeling unwell. (being factual, he hasn't scored every time he has been on the pitch). I don't know why he picked Bony over Nacho, but he will have his reason (maybe didn't want to risk injury as we need him as back up for Tuesday - I don't know, and I would suspect no one on this forum knows).

The simple matter is that we do not know what constraints he has to operate under and with what resources he has available. That team he selected against the bar codes was more than capable of beating Newcastle (irrespective of what positions they played in). The fact they down tools for a day, well no manager in the world can mitigate for that. Would you agree?

To suggest he is deliberately throwing the league is nonsense and I think deep down you could possibly see that. We are probably one of the worlds best clubs and to have a manager being a loose cannon with the reputation of the club, is not something I could see the board sweeping under the carpet - do you?

As I said, I understand your frustration at where we are in the league, the way we are playing etc, and I too am royally disappointed, but IMO, no way is Pellegrini deliberately doing this to harm us.

We should already be league champions mate. Even with injuries.

 

[BringBackSwales]

fine by me. I happen to think he's at it. no possible other reason for his rotation policy. before the game he came out and said "we must not rely on winning the CL to secure our place for next season, we must finish top 4 in the league" he then puts the wrong side out (again) puts players in the wrong positions (again) and makes the wrong substitutions during the game(again).

at 1-1 and seriously flagging and in need of a goal he brings on the completely out of form Bony (AGAIN) instead of the kid who scores every time he plays.

now if you could tell why this is so i'd love to hear it, cos i'm fucking stumped.

It's incompetence rather than deliberately throwing matches,

 

[Inter Me Nan]

If we beat Stoke today I think we'll do it...just.