there seems to be rather a large pre-occupation with the decimation of the Conservative Party at the next Gen Election, without much consideration being given to where those votes are going.
There is a clear partial swap to Reform, and there should be some worry about what this means for UK policy in 2025 onwards.
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FPTP means reform will never be a problem for anyone.
Their best case scenario is being UKIP 2.0 circa 2015, which is to say they had zero parliamentary presence but managed to influence the mainstream party they were associated with to change their agenda.
UKIP have won 1 election in their history, Reform are predicted to get 0 seats in the next election.
Creaming 10% of the vote off the Conservative side doesn’t make Reform a danger, it just guarantees a Labour landslide.