The Conservative Party

[aguero93:20]

I'd rather see Eric Heffer.

We celebrated his 100th birthday last year.

Unfortunately he wasn't present. How could he be? He died when he was 69.

Lazy fucker.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I’m afraid that you’re wrong with regard to the procedures around imports from the EU.

Custom and rules of origin declarations - which can be extremely time-consuming and costly to produce - have already been applied to all goods imported from the EU, and the impact of this should in theory already be incorporated into consumer prices. This additional paperwork has undoubtedly contributed to supply chain disruptions and impacted the continuity of the sample taken by the ONS each month when calculating the inflation data (likely a more important point for the RPI than the CPI). But this impact should now be in the price, and the EU has already applied its full range of customs checks on goods exported to the UK, which will again have had an influence on pricing.

As you alluded to, the UK government has however (repeatedly) delayed the remaining physical checks on fresh food produce entering the UK until next year, which will lead to frictions at the border and no doubt have some impact on price. The size of this impact is unclear and given the government’s track record here, it could well turn into a shit show. But I would still argue that the price impact caused by this in Q1-24 may not be significantly larger than the price rises we are still seeing in the first quarter of this year, which is of course the crucial issue for inflation. Also note that many agricultural price indices have fallen significantly over the last few months (20 to 25% declines are commonplace) and the impact of this should reduce consumer food price inflation after the usual lag.

On a broader point, I think people should not confuse the inability of the so-called consensus forecast to correctly anticipate the monthly profile of the CPI with the fundamental forces that will push inflation lower this year (mostly lower energy costs). The Bank of England is particularly bad at forecasting the monthly CPI data, and so a monthly figure which is stronger than expected in the first few months of this year shouldn’t distract from how quickly inflation is likely to fall in H2. I don’t know whether that will disappoint you or not, but falling inflation should impact the polling given how important this issue has become over the past year.

Falling HEADLINE inflation with continued food hikes will do nothing for the Govt responsible for them. Costs will still be higher than they were pre-pandemic and they are now - If a 50p lettuce is now £1 and next year inflation is down to 5% will that lettuce be 50P - £1 or £1.05? Thats without factoring in all the other pressures on costs such as higher wages and the costs of importing which will add red tape and extra costs a-plenty. It will be no good telling people inflation is coming down when they go to the shops and their £50 big shop is now £75

 

[BayernMan]

I think he’s thinking of the hotels he stays at at tax payers expense.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Raab has such a short fuse - easily wound up and at PMQ's is just reinforcing the case against him for bullying

 

[Brewster's millions]

Falling inflation rate isn’t falling prices. The cost of everyday items will still be higher than before and will still be increasing, albeit at a lower rate. The cost of living pain for many is baked in.

That pedantic point aside, I still don’t see anything moving the dial on Tory prospects for the next election.

No one is claiming that falling prices and falling inflation are one and the same, so I’m not sure who the pedantry was aimed at.

 

[Brewster's millions]

Falling HEADLINE inflation with continued food hikes will do nothing for the Govt responsible for them. Costs will still be higher than they were pre-pandemic and they are now - If a 50p lettuce is now £1 and next year inflation is down to 5% will that lettuce be 50P - £1 or £1.05? Thats without factoring in all the other pressures on costs such as higher wages and the costs of importing which will add red tape and extra costs a-plenty. It will be no good telling people inflation is coming down when they go to the shops and their £50 big shop is now £75

Your original argument was in relation to inflation - you claimed that I didn’t get the issue, ironically - so that’s why I’ve discussed inflation and the change in customs procedures, rather than the price level.

However, unlike HEADLINE inflation and the actual consumer price index, food prices can and frequently do fall in absolute, level terms, and I think we could see this at some point next year. Petrol prices have already fallen significantly and the OFGEM price cap should decline in July. These are only two areas but they are typically seen to be very influential in how households perceive inflation and report this in surveys and opinion polls.

The key issue is however real wage growth and this should move into positive territory through this year. Again, no one is disputing that real wage has been negative and there will be a significant shortfall relative to the prior trend that will be hard to recoup. But it’s still rational to expect households to be less concerned about inflation when they are experiencing positive rather than negative wage growth.

It’s also interesting to see you highlight rising wages in a pejorative sense - does that mean that you don’t now support the RMT, nurses etc in demanding higher pay, given the impact this may have on inflation?

 

[BobKowalski]

No one is claiming that falling prices and falling inflation are one and the same, so I’m not sure who the pedantry was aimed at.

Me.

 

[Vic]

Your original argument was in relation to inflation - you claimed that I didn’t get the issue, ironically - so that’s why I’ve discussed inflation and the change in customs procedures, rather than the price level.

However, unlike HEADLINE inflation and the actual consumer price index, food prices can and frequently do fall in absolute, level terms, and I think we could see this at some point next year. Petrol prices have already fallen significantly and the OFGEM price cap should decline in July. These are only two areas but they are typically seen to be very influential in how households perceive inflation and report this in surveys and opinion polls.

The key issue is however real wage growth and this should move into positive territory through this year. Again, no one is disputing that real wage has been negative and there will be a significant shortfall relative to the prior trend that will be hard to recoup. But it’s still rational to expect households to be less concerned about inflation when they are experiencing positive rather than negative wage growth.

It’s also interesting to see you highlight rising wages in a pejorative sense - does that mean that you don’t now support the RMT, nurses etc in demanding higher pay, given the impact this may have on inflation?

What is this positive wage growth of which you speak?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Your original argument was in relation to inflation - you claimed that I didn’t get the issue, ironically - so that’s why I’ve discussed inflation and the change in customs procedures, rather than the price level.

However, unlike HEADLINE inflation and the actual consumer price index, food prices can and frequently do fall in absolute, level terms, and I think we could see this at some point next year. Petrol prices have already fallen significantly and the OFGEM price cap should decline in July. These are only two areas but they are typically seen to be very influential in how households perceive inflation and report this in surveys and opinion polls.

The key issue is however real wage growth and this should move into positive territory through this year. Again, no one is disputing that real wage has been negative and there will be a significant shortfall relative to the prior trend that will be hard to recoup. But it’s still rational to expect households to be less concerned about inflation when they are experiencing positive rather than negative wage growth.

It’s also interesting to see you highlight rising wages in a pejorative sense - does that mean that you don’t now support the RMT, nurses etc in demanding higher pay, given the impact this may have on inflation?

Why on earth would paying nurses and railway men some extra cash contribute to inflation?

 

[kaz7]

Why on earth would paying nurses and railway men some extra cash contribute to inflation?

It wouldnt , it is a tory lie