The Conservative Party

metalblue said:
Oh… forgive me, I thought the hope he would travel left after winning an election was a belief he would lie to the electorate just to get elected. Silly me. Although I’m not sure “I’m voting for Starmer because he’s not the other guy.” is much better ;)

Does anyone want to say “I’m voting Starmer because he’s =got all the big ideas, his policies really resonate with me, and they form the bedrock of what this country needs to get it back on track”?
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Well the Tories seem to think that ’’he’s got all the big ideas’’ because they keeping nicking them .
 
NPBlue said:
The French pension is around £90 a week more than ours from what I understand, but I don't know what other benefits they recieve like bus passes, etc.

We have always paid our pensioners a pittance, and neither Labour or tory governments over the decades have tried to improve their situation. I remember my mothers parents in the 60's and early 70's complaining it was barely enough to live on, and it's been the same ever since. I remember seeing the queues of pensioners standing outside post offices early in the morning back in the day because they hadn't got a penny in their pockets, and the only reasaon we don't see that now is because the payments are made directly into the recipients bank accounts.

I'm going to receive my pension of £816.16 every 4 weeks from the beginning of June, which, after I have paid my bills, will leave me with little more than £12 a day to enjoy spending. Take food into account, and it's even less.

I'm fortunate I have a private pension so I can carry on living the life I want for a few years yet, but neither political party has addressed the fact that pensioners have been dying for decades from hypothermia in the winter because they can't afford heating or be able to cook a hot meal.

As you say, we don't as a country care about the elderly and it's been the same story for all of my life. I don't know why we accept it because we all grow old, as I'm now finding out, but our attitude towards the elderly hasn't changed since the 60's when my grandparents were scrimping along.

It's beyond political divisions, because none of the parties have tried to change the welfare of our pensioners for the better.
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Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Well the Tories seem to think that ’’he’s got all the big ideas’’ because they keeping nicking them .
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As Stewart Lee said about Jimmy Carr. If Jim Davidson is nicking your lines maybe you need new material.

Seriously though I keep hearing this line trotted out. Beside the windfall tax what are all these 'big ideas'?
 
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bluethrunthru said:
that was the thinking last month yet this month it went up.......... nothing is a given however does your view factor in that the imports we have right now are subject to almost no checks but at the end of the year all the delays all the paperwork that exports are subject to have to be applied to imports as of 1/1/24 or the deal we have with the EU fails ( we will also be in breech of WTO requirements ) - inflation ain't coming down mate and the Tories know it
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I’m afraid that you’re wrong with regard to the procedures around imports from the EU.

Custom and rules of origin declarations - which can be extremely time-consuming and costly to produce - have already been applied to all goods imported from the EU, and the impact of this should in theory already be incorporated into consumer prices. This additional paperwork has undoubtedly contributed to supply chain disruptions and impacted the continuity of the sample taken by the ONS each month when calculating the inflation data (likely a more important point for the RPI than the CPI). But this impact should now be in the price, and the EU has already applied its full range of customs checks on goods exported to the UK, which will again have had an influence on pricing.

As you alluded to, the UK government has however (repeatedly) delayed the remaining physical checks on fresh food produce entering the UK until next year, which will lead to frictions at the border and no doubt have some impact on price. The size of this impact is unclear and given the government’s track record here, it could well turn into a shit show. But I would still argue that the price impact caused by this in Q1-24 may not be significantly larger than the price rises we are still seeing in the first quarter of this year, which is of course the crucial issue for inflation. Also note that many agricultural price indices have fallen significantly over the last few months (20 to 25% declines are commonplace) and the impact of this should reduce consumer food price inflation after the usual lag.

On a broader point, I think people should not confuse the inability of the so-called consensus forecast to correctly anticipate the monthly profile of the CPI with the fundamental forces that will push inflation lower this year (mostly lower energy costs). The Bank of England is particularly bad at forecasting the monthly CPI data, and so a monthly figure which is stronger than expected in the first few months of this year shouldn’t distract from how quickly inflation is likely to fall in H2. I don’t know whether that will disappoint you or not, but falling inflation should impact the polling given how important this issue has become over the past year.
 
Brewster's millions said:
I’m afraid that you’re wrong with regard to the procedures around imports from the EU.

Custom and rules of origin declarations - which can be extremely time-consuming and costly to produce - have already been applied to all goods imported from the EU, and the impact of this should in theory already be incorporated into consumer prices. This additional paperwork has undoubtedly contributed to supply chain disruptions and impacted the continuity of the sample taken by the ONS each month when calculating the inflation data (likely a more important point for the RPI than the CPI). But this impact should now be in the price, and the EU has already applied its full range of customs checks on goods exported to the UK, which will again have had an influence on pricing.

As you alluded to, the UK government has however (repeatedly) delayed the remaining physical checks on fresh food produce entering the UK until next year, which will lead to frictions at the border and no doubt have some impact on price. The size of this impact is unclear and given the government’s track record here, it could well turn into a shit show. But I would still argue that the price impact caused by this in Q1-24 may not be significantly larger than the price rises we are still seeing in the first quarter of this year, which is of course the crucial issue for inflation. Also note that many agricultural price indices have fallen significantly over the last few months (20 to 25% declines are commonplace) and the impact of this should reduce consumer food price inflation after the usual lag.

On a broader point, I think people should not confuse the inability of the so-called consensus forecast to correctly anticipate the monthly profile of the CPI with the fundamental forces that will push inflation lower this year (mostly lower energy costs). The Bank of England is particularly bad at forecasting the monthly CPI data, and so a monthly figure which is stronger than expected in the first few months of this year shouldn’t distract from how quickly inflation is likely to fall in H2. I don’t know whether that will disappoint you or not, but falling inflation should impact the polling given how important this issue has become over the past year.
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Falling inflation rate isn’t falling prices. The cost of everyday items will still be higher than before and will still be increasing, albeit at a lower rate. The cost of living pain for many is baked in.

That pedantic point aside, I still don’t see anything moving the dial on Tory prospects for the next election.
 
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