The Conservative Party

meltonblue said:
Over 65s in affluent areas make up a large chunk of it. Without them they’d be even more screwed than they are.
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I think you’re right, though when I look at raw data behind polls it is quite telling. If you look at the latest YouGov poll for example, they asked 2029 people and 307 said they would vote Conservative - an absolutely enormous 240 of them are over 50. They are polling at something like 7% with under 50s. The overall confirmed total is actually more like 16% - only two thirds of them say they are ‘certain to vote’.

The data that is usually quoted excludes Don’t Know responses - so that’s why they’re still in the 20s in most polls. But that implicitly assumes the Don’t Knows break proportionally… I’m not so convinced that’s a good assumption this time round. How many of those are “I don’t know, but definitely not Tory”? I’m in that bracket because of the nature of my seat. The other factor is that the make up of the Conservative’s electorate has changed so much in the last 8 years, half of their voters are now working class, less educated voters who self-report as being less likely to vote than Labour voters. This has not historically been the case.

I just think the polling looks really bad, but despite that, a quick look under the hood suggests it could actually be even worse than they think. The dynamics of this election feel very different and I’m not sure pollsters are accounting for it.

The Tories should be absolutely terrified by the fact that they’re polling on a raw basis at 7% with under 50s. That is “relegated from official opposition” levels of bad.
 
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