The Conservative Party

gordondaviesmoustache said:
Mixed feelings about this. Think him standing was the best chance of a Lib Dem being elected as MP for this constituency. Saw the **** on my High Street out canvassing for the police commissioner for Warwickshire a few weeks ago and I blanked him when he said ‘good morning’. I would have been more robust in my response but I know one of the Tory councillors he was with and thought better of it. Based on what she told me last time we spoke this decision has been arrived at very late, as she told me he was adamant about standing against the advice of others.
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I'm not so sure - incumbents tend to get a boost compared to an unknown in most elections. And while you might see him as a particular negative, higher profile incumbents often have a big electoral advantage, unless they've done something really crazy.

I suspect a new Tory candidate would give the opposition a better chance.
 
bluenova said:
I suspect a new Tory candidate would give the opposition a better chchance.
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Yeah. The process of finding a new leader would be disastrous. Rishy and Hunt got the jobs as the markets had lost faith in Truss. They had to find the safest hands and quickly.

To give through another process would spook the markets again. And if Truss or similar got in again another collapse in the pound.

They know themselves they can't do it. They are stuck with what they have got. It's there iwn fault for elevating the likes of Johnson and Truss to top jobs when the were either liars or idiots. Or maybe both. Ultimately the markets didn't care which. What wins you a Tory leadership contest doesn't wash with city analysts. And if you try and fight the markets you need a lot of political capital and a huge mandate. Truss had none of these. Any future leader ahead of a GE will be in even worse shape.
 
bluethrunthru said:
According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a 452-seat majority and leave the Tories on 13 seats.
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As much as this would be the funniest thing that has ever happened, it’s unlikely to be quite that bad.

Uniform swing calculators like EC are notoriously unreliable when you get extreme results like this. In reality the Tory vote will recede more in some areas than others which leaves pockets of concentrated votes.

For example, this says Priti Patel will lose her seat (my constituency). Frankly, there’s more chance of Jamie Pollock coming out of retirement and scoring a hat trick in this year’s FA Cup Final than that happening.

I think it will be bad. Maybe more like 150 seats bad though.

If Patel loses her seat then I will drink a magnum of champagne to myself.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Mixed feelings about this. Think him standing was the best chance of a Lib Dem being elected as MP for this constituency. Saw the **** on my High Street out canvassing for the police commissioner for Warwickshire a few weeks ago and I blanked him when he said ‘good morning’. I would have been more robust in my response but I know one of the Tory councillors he was with and thought better of it. Based on what she told me last time we spoke this decision has been arrived at very late, as she told me he was adamant about standing against the advice of others.
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I am proud to say during his tenure I have called Simon Clarke a tosser to his face on Guisborough High Street when he tried to give me a leaflet and told him to fuck off my property when he was canvassing and he unbolted my bolted gates to gain access to my driveway. #fuckthetories
 
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