I don’t think there’s any way of knowing specifics in terms of how many could have been saved, so saying half is incredibly harsh. The pandemic is also not over, with our vaccination programme being several times quicker/bigger, the difference in figures at the end may well be much shorter.I think it would be not unreasonable to expect our figures to be no worse than Germany's. They had the added disadvantage of being on a landmass containing 80% of the world's population with easy access to 500 million of those 80%. Our population density, at least in England is higher than Germany's yet there are areas of Germany with equivalent population densities such as the Rhine-Ruhr area, so overall population density shouldn't be a significant factor. The benefits of being an island nation and theoretically having better control of who arrives (although we chose not to) should more than have compensated for differences in population density. In summary I would say that the government have been responsible for the pandemic being twice as bad as it needed to have been in this country. No way to prove it one way or another - just an opinion.
I'm not sure which countries are stricter/less strict, but I'm not sure the 'within 29 days of a positive test' rule we use is used elsewhere. Also, it may be the case that normal flu/pneumonia deaths may be a lot lower this year due to covid precautions and therefore that may mask excess deaths in the overall figures.I don’t think there’s any way of knowing specifics in terms of how many could have been saved, so saying half is incredibly harsh. The pandemic is also not over, with our vaccination programme being several times quicker/bigger, the difference in figures at the end may well be much shorter.
Regarding Germany specifically, isn’t it true that they have also been stricter with their Covid death figures, in that there will be deaths there not counted, that would be here?
I believe Spain’s ‘within x days’ is smaller than ours and I am sure I read Germany’s was at least at one point?I'm not sure which countries are stricter/less strict, but I'm not sure the 'within 29 days of a positive test' rule we use is used elsewhere. Also, it may be the case that normal flu/pneumonia deaths may be a lot lower this year due to covid precautions and therefore that may mask excess deaths in the overall figures.
Not sure but it did occur to me if the 28 day thing is a cut off, many of those that spending a few weeks on ventilators then die may not be counted?I believe Spain’s ‘within x days’ is smaller than ours and I am sure I read Germany’s was at least at one point?
Wonder if anyone can clarify.
Yes there's no way to prove what might have been or what the best case would have been, but it's been clear from February onwards that the government have made a series of mistakes that has made our death rate more than twice as bad as Germany's (1447 v 631 per million). That might be partially explainable by different methods of counting but that's not going to make that much difference. I'll say again that the fact we're an island outside Schengen should have made it easier for us to control our borders but we didn't implement anything at all. That advantage alone should have more than offset any disadvantages in relation to our population density and all the other excuses.I don’t think there’s any way of knowing specifics in terms of how many could have been saved, so saying half is incredibly harsh. The pandemic is also not over, with our vaccination programme being several times quicker/bigger, the difference in figures at the end may well be much shorter.
Regarding Germany specifically, isn’t it true that they have also been stricter with their Covid death figures, in that there will be deaths there not counted, that would be here?
No argument with that. As you that sort of disparity in mortality can't be explained away just by the calculation method.Yes there's no way to prove what might have been or what the best case would have been, but it's been clear from February onwards that the government have made a series of mistakes that has made our death rate more than twice as bad as Germany's (1447 v 631 per million). That might be partially explainable by different methods of counting but that's not going to make that much difference. I'll say again that the fact we're an island outside Schengen should have made it easier for us to control our borders but we didn't implement anything at all. That advantage alone should have more than offset any disadvantages in relation to our population density and all the other excuses.
You could build in smoothing mechanisms, but Germany is close to the UK including culturally, unlike say France or Italy. In any crisis there has to be an investigation into what we did right and what we did wrong and how much errors contributed to deaths.
Every European country had a heads up on this virus and were still caught with their pants down. We had a heads up based on how it impacted Italy and still kept our pants down. We are an island which theoretically should have been an advantage in that it is easier to lock down sea borders than land and still ended up with the highest death rate.
Looking at the rights and wrongs and measuring that may be ‘macabre’, but better that then repeating our errors.
I’m just not sure you could ever get it to a place to say such and such performed better or worse they’ll always be someone saying “yes, but...”.
I fully agree we should review what we have done but that risks becoming politically toxic. The tories won’t admit to doing wrong and spin it to their view and labour will just spin it the other way, years of “you should have locked down a week earlier” beckon and help no one. Of course we will look at our reaction and build better strategies but equally important is we ask some fundamental questions like “should any care/nursing homes be private?” They seemed to want to be treated like the NHS (PPE etc) in a crisis so perhaps they should be an integrated part of our health care system (like council run care/nursing homes).
Who needs to travel internationally? (As distinct from airlines and tourism needing people to travel.)No idea. If we'd have stopped any international movement of people or goods and had a complete lockdown like wuhan with nobody allowed out at all for a month last March, and no international travel since then we might have saved nearly all of them. Its always a choice between killing people or killing the economy and I think all govt have tried to achieve an acceptable balance of both. For me our govt have stumbled through this compromise in a generally well meaning way but fucked up a few key things, and generally the things they have got right have been done too late.
No argument with that. As you that sort of disparity in mortality can't be explained away just by the calculation method.
We aren't reporting 100% of excess deaths as Covid. Our excess deaths are between 10 and 20% higher that reported Covid deaths.The only real metric to rely on is excess deaths. The UK is reporting 100% of excess deaths as COVID (which gives some confidence in the numbers). For comparison:
Germany is under-reporting COVD deaths versus excess deaths by 20%
Portugal by 50%
Spain by 30%
Italy by 43%
Belgium is about right (and marginally worse than UK)
Russia by 600%
US by 23%
France is fairly accurate at 5%
Mexico by 150%
with the exception of Chile most of Latin America is at least under-reporting by 100%, Chile is actually about right
Sweden is about right
Holland by 27%
You wouldn’t have the tories or Labour running an enquiry though, it would be independent.
What should be politically toxic is not allowing those enquiries to happen , which I wouldn’t put past our current government.
To be fair, the WHO wasn't too clever with masks and international travel, but they were explicit about what was vital - TEST people. Another massive government failure.the experts wheeled out to discourage the wearing of masks must take responsibility for the initial spread.
They wont of couse, like all this government.
The decimation of the stocks of emergency supplies by the murdoch puppet j. hunt meant there was not even enough masks for essential workers , and then the desperate scramble to ensure the equipment supply went to party backers and chums (ffs) meant further shortages. The idea that a virus could only be transmitted by contact is an insult to common sense.
A vested interest msm, an already weak and fatally split opposition, a purged cabinet stocked with johnson acolytes obessed with brexit, but nothing else meant that 100,00(and counting) deaths was inevitable.
Anyone expecting a genuine investigation and verdict on this farce must have been asleep for the last thirty years..
We aren't reporting 100% of excess deaths as Covid. Our excess deaths are between 10 and 20% higher that reported Covid deaths.
Excess deaths compared to the 5 year average are 10-20% higher than reported Covid deaths. I'll have to check the latest ONS figures for the latest info but it's around that.I don’t understand this point sorry mate. Are you saying we are reporting COVID death toll as 10-20% higher than excess deaths? Or 10-20% lower?
Not true. Generally govts love inquiries (especially if they are to blame) as they usually ensure said inquiry is chaired by an established elderly one of their own and the blame is spread thin and wide. They also take a very long time.You wouldn’t have the tories or Labour running an enquiry though, it would be independent.
What should be politically toxic is not allowing those enquiries to happen , which I wouldn’t put past our current government.
Excess deaths compared to the 5 year average are 10-20% higher than reported Covid deaths. I'll have to check the latest ONS figures for the latest info but it's around that.
Just been on ONS. The latest data is from 8 Jan which shows 80,589 excess deaths since the start of 2020 for England and Wales only. The published Covid figure which adds up the four nations' NHS figures for that day was 79,833. Of that figure around 6000 relate to Scotland and NI leaving around 73,000 Covid deaths reported for England & Wales, roughly 10% under the excess deaths figure. The excess deaths compared to Covid has reduced over the winter presumably due to there being less flu deaths because Covid measures are helping with the spread of flu as well.I got mine from https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker appreciate they are a couple of weeks behind today
Jacob Rees Mogg and the Tory morons will be right at home.The 1670s want their policies back