The Conservative Party

[shemnel]

there seems to be rather a large pre-occupation with the decimation of the Conservative Party at the next Gen Election, without much consideration being given to where those votes are going.

There is a clear partial swap to Reform, and there should be some worry about what this means for UK policy in 2025 onwards.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Wonder if you government or similar could do analysis on those 63 areas and see how many are way behind in the polls and are jumping ship so they don't have to lose. I suspect it's the vast majority.

Yeah but the thing to factor in is ego. Quite a few of them will be the 2019 intake who were probably proud to be elected and also quite a few have been MP's for a long time. The latter may just be exhausted by it all or have hit retirement age but for each and every one of them their ego cannot withstand their defeat being announced in the early hours at their local sports hall.

Remember this charmer?

 

[TinFoilHat]

I am not a gambler but even I know its probably pointless at this stage contacting Ladbrookes for the odds on a labour win

This is like a beautiful woman saying she wants you to make love to her but won't agree a date to do so.

I think I'd go blind if the Tories lost over 500 seats.

 

[shemnel]

I am not a gambler but even I know its probably pointless at this stage contacting Ladbrookes for the odds on a labour win

can get 1/7 on a Labour majority (~88%), so heavy fav but not a foregone conclusion....

 

[bluethrunthru]

can get 1/7 on a Labour majority, so heavy fav but not a foregone conclusion....

Oh I think it is - Sunak can't change anything and is terrified of the humiliation now.

 

[shemnel]

Oh I think it is - Sunak can't change anything and is terrified of the humiliation now.

well i would tend to agree, it seems we are wandering to an inevitable conclusion, but i predict a further rise in Reform voters plus a slight rebound for Tory voters. I think Labour will contract a touch, tis the way with elections, things tighten up again once it comes to the actual vote. Get a free tenner for every 70 if you like!

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

well i would tend to agree, it seems we are wandering to an inevitable conclusion, but i predict a further rise in Reform voters plus a slight rebound for Tory voters. I think Labour will contract a touch, tis the way with elections, things tighten up again once it comes to the actual vote. Get a free tenner for every 70 if you like!

Do you think the Reform party will still exist in 2026?

 

[shemnel]

Do you think the Reform party will still exist in 2026?

Yes i do, but to me their apex vote share will be this election, but the knock on effect to the Conservative Party will be large, as they try to win back their voters (probably by appointing Farage as leader)

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Looking like another budget later in the year in a final gasp for votes. I was beginning to worry about my pension pot. I suspect they were thinking of attacking that to claw back some money from the triple lock but that would just about finish the FOC voters.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

I have no problem with Reform spending the next 20 years splitting the right, if I'm honest. Unfortunately, that's not usually what happens, and Tories tend to vote Tory when push comes to shove, which is why UKIP never won a single seat in how many attempts?