This is the real reason why we are so far behind. If you look at the following in isolation:
Spurs Home - draw - should have been a win +2 points
Norwich away - lost should have been a win 3 points - they had 3 shots on goals
Newcastle - draw - should have been a win, 3 shots on goal is all they had.+2 points
Palace - draw +2 points again something like 3 or 2 shots on goal.
Wolves home - lost but they had nothing all game should have been a draw +1
Liverpool away - should have been a draw +1 - 2 for them now.
Spurs away - +3 points
Now Wolves away even though we we were winning they did have more shots and possession, United home they actually had more shots on target than us. So if I’m being harsh and say ok those two in the balance we have lost. Either way we should have lost 2 max.
That’s a 16 point swing and also is saying Liverpool only deserved to drop 2 points against us and didn’t deserve to drop any against anyone else which we know is not true!
So on play/luck/var we really we should be 6 points behind - same as last season really.
It has just been a perfect storm against us. Injuries, bad finishing a few individual errors compounded by our inability to finish and getting screwed by VAR and the FA. On the other hand Liverpool have been clinical, ridden their luck (don’t think they have had 3 games where the opponents have scored with every shot on goal!) had VAR go in their favour and no injuries. They’ve also chickened out of the League Cup and tried their best to do the same for the FA Cup.
It’s sickening as they will probably smash all the records but we know they are not as good as us on the day or as a pure footballing team. It is just so frustrating. We’ll be back though and this is why on the whole I’m not worried. A few tweaks and we’ll show them who the real champs are.