The FTSE

  • Thread starter Thread starter worsleyweb
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Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
 
Marvin said:
Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
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The financial impact of what is happening right now will take 6 - 9 months to wash through into earnings reports. The markets will move with the numbers going forward so dont expect big jumps short term. If you want to be savy look at how behavious have changed and who benefits and pick your time to buy in. Algorithms can't pick up changing behaviour.
 
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
 
Marvin said:
Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
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are you a day trader? What are you basing your price targets on charts or specific events? All the tools such as charts in my opinion go out of the window here as there simply isn’t any charts to pull up on this scenario. For me it’s trigger points in the news cycle which is a first as we are trying to predict financial movements based on medical developments rather than the release of farmpay rolls, GDP, CPI etc

still think the big one is coming which will be the U.S as it always is. The clues for me are there by just watching trump in the briefings, his demeanor and words have radically changed in the past week so what data as he got in his desk that we don’t know about?
 
west didsblue said:
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
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Seems a decent call as the travel companies will have to restart at some point - time frame is a nightmare on this though as it’s all interlinked with scientific data and predicted government responses and finally consumer appetite/financial capacity to actually go on holiday in the foreseeable future.

personally looking at the telecommunications sector maybe Vodafone which is done to 110 from 160 highs - I’ve noticed my phone has crashed a couple of times already recently and suspect if the Uk goes into lock down usage will go through the roof.
 
west didsblue said:
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
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I’d be more confident in the oil one than the Travel.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Had a good day today (up 13%) but be wary on travel. Precarious industry in these times.
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Agreed. I reckon it’s 50:50 whether they survive. That’s why I went for two of the biggest ones TUI and Carnival. Both up over 10% today but not counting chickens. I know it’s effectively a win/lose bet.
 
I've stopped checking mine, works very well to relieve anxiety ike when I stopped watching the dippers half way through the season. I have a bit, but not too much, that I could use to have a punt on something while prices are low but have decided to keep that where it is as a cash reserve in case I can't work or to pay for a nice holiday once this is all over.
 
west didsblue said:
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
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If it was RD Shell, that's not a bad punt in my opinion. Massive dividend yield, a strong balance sheet, and I noticed one of the non-exec Directors topped up his holding by 10,000 shares on Monday. Only small change for him I know but I'm taking it a positive sign.
 
Two Gun Bob said:
I bought TUI Tuesday. Will average down if it breaks £2.
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It will be completely 'broken' within a month.

Just like Thomas Cook, they have terrible cash flow and the government aren't bailing out any business that was already on its arse.

Same goes for Intu.

I have knowledge of JD Sports. Don't touch em, can't get the shoes from China and highly leveraged buying other sports shops in the States.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
It will be completely 'broken' within a month.

Just like Thomas Cook, they have terrible cash flow and the government aren't bailing out any business that was already on its arse.

Same goes for Intu.

I have knowledge of JD Sports. Don't touch em, can't get the shoes from China and highly leveraged buying other sports shops in the States.
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Only in for 2 or the price of a good holiday that we sadly cannot now enjoy so either way it was spent money. Hard to draw analogies as I think T.C had more issues with debt they incurred during the acquisition of My Travel. A bridge too far for them most surely. Assets to liabilities of tui and easy jet don't look anywhere near appealing mate but that's typical of the sector. Have a look at their last 5 year chart happily bobbing along the £10 mark with highs of £17. We like holidaying and believe the sector will eventualy recover but regardless of the pace sub £3.00 is a great entry point. As always Dyor.
 
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@flyer thanks for posting. I’m in the process of transferring out. In some ways couldn’t be a worse time but then I think had I requested a figure now it would be much lower, and there are clearly gains to be made soon. I’m going to put it in cash first then sit down with my FA to see whats best. Hope the recovery comes soon.
 
manchester blue said:
@flyer thanks for posting. I’m in the process of transferring out. In some ways couldn’t be a worse time but then I think had I requested a figure now it would be much lower, and there are clearly gains to be made soon. I’m going to put it in cash first then sit down with my FA to see whats best. Hope the recovery comes soon.
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Hiya bud, I’ve mentioned before that I’m snowed under with work and many are DB transfers. It’s not actually a bad time to transfer out as transfer values on DB’s are the highest they’re ever likely to go due to the way they are calculated (based on 15 gilt dividend which is through the floor).

If you’re worried about entering a volatile market then make use of pound cost averaging and hold the majority in cash and then drip your funds into the market over the next 6-18 months to reduce risk.

As an example, I’ve just transferred one scheme for £1.4m and he started with all but £200k staying in cash and he’s dripping that cash in at £50k every two weeks for the next year or so. That way if the markets are volatile he’s buying more units as it drops. His timescale is 5-10 years before he draws down on income.
 
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