The FTSE

  • Thread starter Thread starter worsleyweb
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I'm holding funds in Gold miners, High yield bonds, some cash, and some Energy.

Decent active funds in US UK and Europe should serve better during a turbulent time. Tricky time

Nasdaq should have a temporary sharp bounce in next couple of weeks.

Reduced my Gilt and fixed interest exposure due to (further) rate rises.
 
It’s positive to see healthy corrections in some of the bubble and junk stocks. Rivian, for example, is down from $179 to under $20. That IPO set off alarm bells and thankfully triggered me to exit some of my positions that had grown their earnings multiples. But there are still a lot of stocks trading at extremely high valuations, even after falls of 50% or more from their highs. Tesla is testing support, and could negatively affect the wider market if it breaks sharply below.

I think that the downside for most of the megacaps is limited, but there is still plenty of room for speculative stocks to fall further. I know a few people that have done well shorting the NASDAQ, and they’re not exiting yet.

Lots of major warning signs in the cryptoponzi market. It’s also just a matter of time before real estate takes a pounding with increasing interest rates and the threat of recession.

I’ve taken positions in gold miners a couple of times over the last 5 years at very attractive valuations, but they’re mostly too rich for me at the moment. It’s quite crazy that Barrick is trading at the same multiple as Alphabet. We’re starting to get a few buying opportunities in some high-growth stocks though and I’m beginning to deploy some cash.

 
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Homar said:
It’s positive to see healthy corrections in some of the bubble and junk stocks. Rivian, for example, is down from $179 to under $20. That IPO set off alarm bells and thankfully triggered me to exit some of my positions that had grown their earnings multiples. But there are still a lot of stocks trading at extremely high valuations, even after falls of 50% or more from their highs. Tesla is testing support, and could negatively affect the wider market if it breaks sharply below.

I think that the downside for most of the megacaps is limited, but there is still plenty of room for speculative stocks to fall further. I know a few people that have done well shorting the NASDAQ, and they’re not exiting yet.

Lots of major warning signs in the cryptoponzi market. It’s also just a matter of time before real estate takes a pounding with increasing interest rates and the threat of recession.

I’ve taken positions in gold miners a couple of times over the last 5 years at very attractive valuations, but they’re mostly too rich for me at the moment. It’s quite crazy that Barrack is trading at the same multiple as Alphabet. We’re starting to get a few buying opportunities in some high-growth stocks though and I’m beginning to deploy some cash.

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Tesla is the poster boy for overvalued.

Every box is a tick:

Price to earnings of the charts: tick
Massive overprive in comparison to peers: tick
Popular with alt right crypto types: tick
Celebrity CEO with questionable competence: tick
 
Pretty much everything I'm invested in is getting twatted left, right, and centre. NIO in particular though. My hopes of it going through the roof Tesla-style in the next few years and giving me the chance of retiring early when I turn 55 in 2025 as a result have long been extinguished! I still expect it go back up over time as it looks to be a solid company but it's clearly going to take a lot more time than many predicted.
 
Gaudion M said:
Tesla is the poster boy for overvalued.

Every box is a tick:

Price to earnings of the charts: tick
Massive overprive in comparison to peers: tick
Popular with alt right crypto types: tick
Celebrity CEO with questionable competence: tick
Click to expand...
Yep. Even after recent declines, it could still be 10 times overvalued. But unlike the others, it had a $1T+ market cap, which means that a crash in the stock could cause contagion and capitulation in the wider market. Not that this would be a bad thing for people with time on their side, but it might be pretty devastating for retirees.

It’s an important lesson to younger investors (and some extremely naive older ones) that growth/innovation/disruption at any value is just gambling on short-term market sentiment. Speculative stocks should only ever be at most a tiny portion of your portfolio.
 
Carnage on Wall Street today. The FTSE could have a torrid day tomorrow. The mega tech stocks doing particularly badly with Tesla and Amazon with some of the biggest drops. Bezos and Musk will be worth a few billion less tonight than they were this morning. Both are over 40% down from their peaks last year.
 
west didsblue said:
Carnage on Wall Street today. The FTSE could have a torrid day tomorrow. The mega tech stocks doing particularly badly with Tesla and Amazon with some of the biggest drops. Bezos and Musk will be worth a few billion less tonight than they were this morning. Both are over 40% down from their peaks last year.
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Just when I thought things could hardly get any worse. What’s driving the latest?
 
journolud said:
Just when I thought things could hardly get any worse. What’s driving the latest?
Click to expand...
The Fed is going to kill the market to destroy demand in a futile attempt to get inflation under control.Head for the hills.
 
journolud said:
Just when I thought things could hardly get any worse. What’s driving the latest?
Click to expand...
Target, on the heels of Walmart.

When the hiding places get schwacked, look out below!

In a consumer-driven economy, where people are talking about inflation having peaked, watching Target not make numbers and give poor guidance made a “6% up in a week” market QUICKLY take most of that back, while also taking out the “safe spaces.”

If the wealth effect amongst consumers turns, the economy contracts. If inflation remains high due to supply issues (greater than demand destruction), then there is no knowing how low is low this time.

Target down 25+% looks like the apocalypse to the safe money crowd.
 
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CPPSC said:
Looks like Powell has been given remit to do a Volker. This could get very nasty.
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Not quite Volker, but he needs to see corporate earnings GROWTH reined in, which is starting to happen, so he isn’t forced to overshoot (too far).

I’d think more MAX 3.5-4% than 17%!!!

We will be at 1.75-2% by the end of summer, so we will have another quarter of earnings to digest by then.

My personal opinion is that they telegraph a drive to 2.5% in 50bp increments by year end and then hold.

Even if supply chain issues persist, demand destruction needs time to bring some balance.

There are a lot of people tied to low, but adjustable, rates that will start to feel the pain and the consumer should flow. That demand destruction, coupled with an easing supply chain issues, SHOULD induce inflation REDUCTIONS.

Persistently higher oil prices will hurt that somewhat, given America’s penchant for 20mpg trucks & SUVs, but the Fed has to stop chasing its tail by ramping up on trailing edge data points.

Move, hold & consolidate, wait for reaction, act further only if absolutely necessary.
 
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