The Labour Government

[bluenova]

How have you arrived at 10 to 20% of the issue please?

It's a little back of the envelope because it's so many factors, but...

On the demand side, over the last 40 years, net migration has been approx half of population growth. Natural changes (longer lives/births) have been the other half.

The reduction in average household size, is the other big factor on the demand side. It's dropped from around 2.7 in the late 70s to 2.2 in 22/23, which would be equivalent to an 12 million increase in the UK population. It's actually increased due to the natural changes, and net migration, by around the same figure million, so it's a bigger factor than either of those two.

That brings us down to maybe a 20-30% of the demand side being down to migration.

If you look at the changes in house building, and in particular, social housing, which tailed off from the late 70s. Then there are plenty of other supply side issues, such as the rise in second homes, investment properties, holiday homes etc., then overall that reduces it further.

As I said, it's probably a research project to get it anywhere like bang on, but that at least gives you an idea.

 

[BTH]

Refugees don't have a right to choose in the sense that every country in the world must respect that choice and facilitate that choice. If somebody is in France then there is no obligation for us to create a means for that person to claim asylum in the UK. That doesn't bother me because those people are not at Taliban gunpoint in Afghanistan, they're in France.

The whole point of asylum is to protect people coming from a place of danger in a safe place and not to facilitate some pick'n'mix of which country you fancy living in.

Where are all these people going to live and where are we finding the money to house and feed them? It's costing us billions to house and feed those that come now and that's only for the small numbers who try the crossing. So how many will come once you open the floodgates?

I hope you've got a spare bedroom!

Is that you Nigel?

 

[inbetween]

You're taking the highest, and most unusual post-Covid couple of years on record for immigration (this year is already predicted to be back to nearer 300k net). You're making the assumption that they need a house each, but none of the hundreds of thousands that left had one?

I'm, unsurprisingly, not suggesting that we shoot old people and give their houses to immigrants. What you're doing is looking at a large problem, with many causes on both the supply and demand side, and then picking out one demand side issue, and saying that's the problem.

If you only consider supply then why don't we look at the problems facing supply? One of the biggest blockades for developers is planning. Our planning system is ancient and unfit for purpose. How many on here are arguing to burn our planning system to the ground to enable more house building? Nobody.

Imagine what getting planning granted is like for a house builder who wants to build 500 houses, the answer is it takes years. Much larger estates can take 5+ years to get planning granted. So the answer really is we can't build enough houses because it's physically impossible to do so.

For those talking of social housing, if the government decided today that it was going to build 1m new social houses in this Parliament then it couldn't do it. They'd have to first buy the land (££££), get the planning (years+££££) and then finally build the things (more years+££££). It'd be over a decade before those 1m houses were finished.

At this point the country will have moved forwards and blimey we now need 2m houses.

 

[inbetween]

Is that you Nigel?

Are you happy to pay more tax or at least divert your tax to house migrants instead of paying for the NHS?

It's called reality unfortunately.

 

[kaz7]

I keep reading that france is a safe country , not in the migrant camps , sky and itv did reports on it , people were getting beaten by the police , had food taken and their few possessions taken or smashed .the camps are riddled with disease . Why would they not want to get here ?

So lets do away with the idea france is safe , if you speak english and have family ties here or a sponser then they should be here, processed quickly and allowed to work

 

[meltonblue]

Are you happy to pay more tax or at least divert your tax to house migrants instead of paying for the NHS?

It's called reality unfortunately.

The reality is that isn’t the only choice though.

 

[hilts]

I am afraid for some the issue has been weaponised and made into a binary issue - stop immigration = all issues in the UK ( though most would just say England for ..... reasons ...) and they refuse to listen to any explanation of the consequences that would result from it.

Its the same in the States - Trump has said up to 30m mass deportations of undocumented migrants - there aren't 30m so clearly others are in the firing line. He says the Army will be involved which is against the constitution I understand but people believe him.

Both countries in every way imaginable would be devastated by such a move but simple people buy simple 3 word slogans and don't want to check before endorsing it

Another lie from you, I haven't seen anyone suggest stop immigration. You also failed to mention the other side, you know the posters who can never give a figure when it is too much.

Ermm. Weaponised you say? Like oh you have concerns over large immigration, you must hate brown people.

That kind of weaponisation?

Ttfn

 

[bluenova]

If you only consider supply then why don't we look at the problems facing supply? One of the biggest blockades for developers is planning. Our planning system is ancient and unfit for purpose. How many on here are arguing to burn our planning system to the ground to enable more house building? Nobody.

Imagine what getting planning granted is like for a house builder who wants to build 500 houses, the answer is it takes years. Much larger estates can take 5+ years to get planning granted. So the answer really is we can't build enough houses because it's physically impossible to do so.

For those talking of social housing, if the government decided today that it was going to build 1m new social houses in this Parliament then it couldn't do it. They'd have to first buy the land (££££), get the planning (years+££££) and then finally build the things (more years+££££). It'd be over a decade before those 1m houses were finished.

At this point the country will have moved forwards and blimey we now need 2m houses.

Not sure it's nobody. Labour have hardly stopped going on about how they're going to reform the planning system specifically so they can build more houses? They've not said 'burn to the ground', but 'ripping out the blockages' is a similar phrasing.

Whether it really works, I don't know, and I'd hope that it's the right kind of building, but they have been talking a lot about it. Only last week the Chancellor said the growth strategy, which is essentially make or break for this Govt, relies on planning reform unlocking more building.

Over the next few years, the 'natural' demand looks like it's going to tail off for a while, which gives some headroom. I'd probably look at significant disincentives for investment properties/second homes, which are underoccupied, plus incentives to downsize for other underoccupied first homes. If more and more people want their own place, but rents/prices are going crazy, should we be building a better variety of smaller flats in suburban areas? I'd rather Labour look at all the different demand and supply reasons, and find a broader overall solution.

Immigration is certainly part of the conversation, but given our ageing population, and the strong reliance on immigrants in the NHS and care sector, picking out that as a negative we need to "fix" could be counterproductive.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

I keep reading that france is a safe country , not in the migrant camps , sky and itv did reports on it , people were getting beaten by the police , had food taken and their few possessions taken or smashed .the camps are riddled with disease . Why would they not want to get here ?

So lets do away with the idea france is safe , if you speak english and have family ties here or a sponser then they should be here, processed quickly and allowed to work

The French police do that because the migrants

• Don't apply for asylum in France
• The UK Government pay them to break up the camps

And I agree ... they should be processed quickly and, if accepted, allowed to work ... if not accepted then they should be returned to the last country they came from .. as quickly as possible to allow them the best chance of claiming asylum there.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Another lie from you, I haven't seen anyone suggest stop immigration. You also failed to mention the other side, you know the posters who can never give a figure when it is too much.

Ermm. Weaponised you say? Like oh you have concerns over large immigration, you must hate brown people.

That kind of weaponisation?

Ttfn

over 44k people signed this petition demanding an end to migration

Archived Petition: Close the borders! Suspend ALL immigration for 5 years.

We believe our country is facing serious challenges both from legal and illegal migration, and think the only way to deal with this is to suspend all immigration temporarily for 5 years.

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