Kompany Car
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 19 Sep 2015
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- 3,672
The following is with respect to migrants not asylum seekers or those often referred to as illegal migrants.Very true we area land of immigrants and undoubtedly better for it, however there is clearly a rate at which immigration reaches a point where successful integration is not possible. I would suggest that anyone who thinks we are capable of successfully integrating the current number of people coming in is living in cloud cukkooland. The facts simply do not back up this statement.
If these recently released numbers are sustainable why is the new government criticising them?
And if you still think they are sustainable, can I ask what do you think is the maximum level/ rate of immigration above which integration would cause problems, if you think therenis such a level? I would suggest that rate is about 50,000 per annum, primarilly based on our capacity to build housing and the current backlog in this area.
Purely from a financial perspective, when you look at the figures for immigrants into the UK across the papers that you can find online its a confused picture, we have migrants from inside the EU mixed with non EU migrants all being treated as one group by some papers, others focus on the individuals and not any of the extended family/dependents who migrate with them. Others try to look at the future when it comes to migrants and make assertions that their children will all be employed. All of these aspects make it very difficult to get a clear perspective of immigration and the impact on the public purse.
Depending on how you cut it, taking all migrants together including those from the EU, they are clear net positive contributors. If you split out Non EU you find that they provide substantially less net benefit and depending on skills can be significantly net negative.
Unfortunately low skilled migrants tend to be from parts of the world with a culture of large families and high birth rates. Whilst there have been waves of immigration into the UK over many centuries, those pre war had no option but to work and to earn sufficient to feed their families. There was no welfare state, no support net. If you were just looking at the cold hard numbers there would be a case to say that low skilled migrants should only be allowed if they have no dependents or are willing to come unaccompanied, from a humanitarian perspective its obviously much harder to make the case.
There is a discussion around all of this in the following article, but the bottom line is that the data set is incomplete and studies contain assumptions which are yet to be validated.
Migration Observatory Oxford
The only thing that is clear is that high skilled workers are positive contributors to the UK regardless of where they are from, but we already know that. The best scenario from an economic sense are migrants who are highly skilled aged between 20 and 50 with no children.
Whilst we can look at the population pyramid and say we dont have enough people entering the jobs market to support those in retirement, the large elephant in the room is the impact of AI, ultimately changing how we think about the skill sets we need and even how many people are actually required by businesses.
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