The Labour Government

[Hertzblue]

And there’s a reason for every rise and every fall, and it’s often due to external factors, although the 1989 to 1992 rise was largely self inflicted and was only resolved when the government was forced to leave the ERM. It’s a pointless exercise trying to make out it’s only Labour that fucks things up. Each party has had its moments but it’s mostly down to world affairs.

Have a look at what I wrote.

It’s a pointless exercise trying to make out it’s only Labour that fucks things up.

That is the opposite of what I wrote.
I replied to a post that contained , yet again, the narrative that everything that is wrong is due to ' the last 14 years"
My reply was to point out that no it demonstrably is not. The graph clearly shows that the public finances were shot to pieces in 2010 when the Cameron government took over, hence austerity. I accept that there are plenty of arguments about whether that was the right direction to take for so long etc but that wasn't the point.
The point is that this narrative that all ills are due to the last 14 years is nonsense.

 

[Hertzblue]

I haven't the time to challenge all of it, but if it was on the fall and looking good in the period 1991-1997, it's looking similalry rosy now as the chart shows a near-identical downward trend.

Doesn't matter if you have the time or not, the point being that your narrative of all our financial woes being due to the " last 14 years" is demonstrably nonsense , a case of Labour part collective amnesia it seems.

As for the current OBR forecast, if that is right it will be the first time ever. Reeves has no chance of hitting that forecast save for mammoth politically impossible tax rises or mammoth politically impossible spending cuts.

Watch out for some creative accounting - what we used to call day to day spending may well be now called investment come the autumn as she cheats her way out of her own fiscal rules.

 

[west didsblue]

Have a look at what I wrote.

That is the opposite of what I wrote.
I replied to a post that contained , yet again, the narrative that everything that is wrong is due to ' the last 14 years"
My reply was to point out that no it demonstrably is not. The graph clearly shows that the public finances were shot to pieces in 2010 when the Cameron government took over, hence austerity. I accept that there are plenty of arguments about whether that was the right direction to take for so long etc but that wasn't the point.
The point is that this narrative that all ills are due to the last 14 years is nonsense.

Then you made out it all started going wrong in 1997 which is manifestly wrong. It’s obvious what point you were trying to make and it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

 

[ganganvince]

A bespoke thread was started earlier

Deleted

 

[hampshireblue]

Doesn't matter if you have the time or not, the point being that your narrative of all our financial woes being due to the " last 14 years" is demonstrably nonsense , a case of Labour part collective amnesia it seems.

As for the current OBR forecast, if that is right it will be the first time ever. Reeves has no chance of hitting that forecast save for mammoth politically impossible tax rises or mammoth politically impossible spending cuts.

Watch out for some creative accounting - what we used to call day to day spending may well be now called investment come the autumn as she cheats her way out of her own fiscal rules.

OK point taken-not all. Lets go back to 1900 and Labour have had overall control for 35 years in 125. So let's agree that non-labour governments have caused the vast majority of our present woes.

 

[Hertzblue]

Lol, I think we should agree thank goodness it has only been 35 years or are woes would be multiplied.

I think we can agree we have been very badly served by our politicians for the best part of 30 years.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Lol, I think we should agree thank goodness it has only been 35 years or are woes would be multiplied.

I think we can agree we have been very badly served by our politicians for the best part of 30 years.

Yes you are right.... just look at what they've done in Wales.

Spending a fortune on a "Clean Air" consultation in a country that is mainly (90%) countryside and has hardly any industry and definitely no money.... not forgetting the millions we are giving to Uganda to plant fucking trees in Uganda.

Some people will just never learn.

 

[Hertzblue]

Then you made out it all started going wrong in 1997 which is manifestly wrong. It’s obvious what point you were trying to make and it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

It only doesn't stand up to scrutiny if you have no context of the information you are looking at .

Like claiming that Callaghan's government had the public finances going in the right direction without understanding that was entirely due to the intervention of the IMF , which that Labour government had to beg a loan from to stop the economy imploding and a run on the Pound.

I think that is even more embarrassing than your claim a couple of weeks ago that the country wasn't going to go bankrupt as there FTSE was doing well.

Manifestly wrong on both points.

I have told you why 1997 is the starting point in my original post.

 

[Hertzblue]

Thatcher sold everything off. What do you suggest to do when there is nothing more to sell?

Thatcher left office in 1990 ffs

 

[west didsblue]

It only doesn't stand up to scrutiny if you have no context of the information you are looking at .

Like claiming that Callaghan's government had the public finances going in the right direction without understanding that was entirely due to the intervention of the IMF , which that Labour government had to beg a loan from to stop the economy imploding and a run on the Pound.

I think that is even more embarrassing than your claim a couple of weeks ago that the country wasn't going to go bankrupt as there FTSE was doing well.

Manifestly wrong on both points.

I have told you why 1997 is the starting point in my original post.

As usual you are totally missing my point whilst completely ignoring the context around Tory governments supposedly doing well and brushing over the run up to black Wednesday like it never happened.

You did indeed tell me why 1997 was your starting point, and between then and 2007 public finances were under control including a period of heavy investment in public services from 1999 onwards. In spite of this heavy investment the deficit to GDP ratio was coming down from 2005 only to be undone by the GFC a couple of years later which you appear to think was avoidable. It was the recovery from this, managed by the Tories, that saw public services decimated.

As for me supposedly saying that the country wasn’t going bankrupt because the markets were doing well, that’s another distortion of reality. My point was simply that the markets did not appear to be concerned by your doomsday scenario which suggests you might have been over egging it somewhat. The markets are simply one indicator amongst many of how the economy is performing.

The fact that you have aligned yourself with the thickos that intend to vote for a party that doesn’t have any policies and just uses soundbites and scaremongering suggests that your opinion is worth fuck all anyway.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Interest rates cut to lowest levels since 2023 and State Pension to rise 5%

still, it’s all awful and only Farage can sort this country out.

 

[Brewster's millions]

As usual you are totally missing my point whilst completely ignoring the context around Tory governments supposedly doing well and brushing over the run up to black Wednesday like it never happened.

You did indeed tell me why 1997 was your starting point, and between then and 2007 public finances were under control including a period of heavy investment in public services from 1999 onwards. In spite of this heavy investment the deficit to GDP ratio was coming down from 2005 only to be undone by the GFC a couple of years later which you appear to think was avoidable. It was the recovery from this, managed by the Tories, that saw public services decimated.

As for me supposedly saying that the country wasn’t going bankrupt because the markets were doing well, that’s another distortion of reality. My point was simply that the markets did not appear to be concerned by your doomsday scenario which suggests you might have been over egging it somewhat. The markets are simply one indicator amongst many of how the economy is performing.

The fact that you have aligned yourself with the thickos that intend to vote for a party that doesn’t have any policies and just uses soundbites and scaremongering suggests that your opinion is worth fuck all anyway.

The public finances weren’t under control ahead of the GFC.

If you look at the Treasury forecasts for the cyclically adjusted current budget in 2004-05, at the time of the April 2003 Budget a figure of -0.5% of GDP was expected, that is a surplus of 0.5% of GDP.

However, by the time of the March 2004 Budget, a deficit of 0.2% was expected in 04-05, and by March 2005 a deficit of 0.8% of GDP was expected for that year. Ultimately a deficit of 1.5% of GDP was recorded for 04-05, so I would say that a 2%-pt of GDP deterioration in the CACB forecasts/outturn over such a short period is not really consistent with a suggestion that the public finances were under control. Also, the PSND to GDP ratio is unlikely to have fallen in the lead up to the GFC if the PFI contracts favoured by the Labour governments of the day had been included in that measure.

 

[Hgblue2]

Interest rates cut to lowest levels since 2023 and State Pension to rise 5%

still, it’s all awful and only Farage can sort this country out.

Interest rates have been lowered, despite inflation being above target and headed higher, because the boe is worried that the economy is screwed, so not sure that's the flex that you think it is.

In 2024 the OBR projected that the government would borrow £80 billion between April 2024 and April 2025, we actually borrowed £148 billion, £105 billion of which was spent on debt interest, so two thirds of our annual borrowing is to service existing debt. Double what we spend on defence, it's more than we spend on schools. Just think about the morality of that. In June the government borrowed £20.7 billion of which £16.1 billion was to pay the interest on existing debt, so now three quarters of our borrowing is to service existing debt.

The 30 year gilt yield is now well above 5%, it reached 4.85% when everyone was melting down about the Truss mini budget. The IMF is mentioning the UK in despatches.

So debt through the roof, growth pretty much non existent, inflation rising, taxes already raised to no effect.

I fear you haven't grasped the full gravity of the situation.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Thatcher left office in 1990 ffs

And her social revolution of the self over the collective is still apparent.

A lot of the decisions made in her time of government (privatisation of utilities/energy) are the reasons we're in the shit now.

 

[hcblue95]

Thatcher left office in 1990 ffs

Why did you post a graph from 1970 ffs

 

[Chippy_boy]

It’s one example of raising taxes that I feel lies fair on everyone.

I’ve stated before that income tax simply has to rise and the sooner we all gave up to that fact the better.

Agreed, sadly. I don't see how we can manage £40bn of services cuts, and if Reeves fiddles the books (again) by tweaking her golden rule (again) to allow more borrowing, then (a) our debt interest spirals even higher, (b) her remaining shred of credibility - such as it is - is lost, and (c) the markets would be spooked and push up bond yields even higher.

So if more borrowing is out, extensive cuts are out, that only leaves tax rises. And only hitting one of the big 3 will raise enough money.

This could be the LibDems tuition fees moment for Labour. They scraped by getting away with employers' NI by claiming it wasn't a tax on working people (but few believed it). If they raise the basic rate or even the 40p rate of tax, VAT or employee NI rates, the electorate will never forgive them.

 

[Hertzblue]

As usual you are totally missing my point whilst completely ignoring the context around Tory governments supposedly doing well and brushing over the run up to black Wednesday like it never happened.

You did indeed tell me why 1997 was your starting point, and between then and 2007 public finances were under control including a period of heavy investment in public services from 1999 onwards. In spite of this heavy investment the deficit to GDP ratio was coming down from 2005 only to be undone by the GFC a couple of years later which you appear to think was avoidable. It was the recovery from this, managed by the Tories, that saw public services decimated.

As for me supposedly saying that the country wasn’t going bankrupt because the markets were doing well, that’s another distortion of reality. My point was simply that the markets did not appear to be concerned by your doomsday scenario which suggests you might have been over egging it somewhat. The markets are simply one indicator amongst many of how the economy is performing.

The fact that you have aligned yourself with the thickos that intend to vote for a party that doesn’t have any policies and just uses soundbites and scaremongering suggests that your opinion is worth fuck all anyway.

Another poster has already debunked your claim that the public finances were under control up to 1997, so I won't repeat.
As to ..

The fact that you have aligned yourself with the thickos that intend to vote for a party that doesn’t have any policies and just uses soundbites and scaremongering suggests that your opinion is worth fuck all anyway.

I have said I voted Reform at the local elections ( for a specific purpose) that does not mean I " intend" to vote for them or anyone else when I am next given the opportunity, I will make that decision at the time. So there is no " fact "
to your claim at all.
If however, when the time comes, that means voting with the " thickos" then that is what I will do . What is the option? to carry on as we are like you seem to want to do, to believe as you do that the country cannot be bankrupt ?
You think that is smart ?
To borrow one from Orwell.
" One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that, no ordinary man could be such a fool"

 

[Hertzblue]

And her social revolution of the self over the collective is still apparent.

A lot of the decisions made in her time of government (privatisation of utilities/energy) are the reasons we're in the shit now.

She did emphasise personal responsibility, not so sure outside war time we ever had a culture of the collective.

Agree on Utility privatisation, a triumph of ideology unfortunately, same with the sale of the social housing stock, millions directly benefitted but at great cost to the country.

 

[Hertzblue]

Why did you post a graph from 1970 ffs

I don't make them, it's an OBR graph so it was a decent source. The debate was the notion that are all our ills are due to the last 14 years, my point is that is not the case , go back to 1997 for the start of it. There was no invitation to start going on about anything before that . What can I do ?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Have a look at what I wrote.

That is the opposite of what I wrote.
I replied to a post that contained , yet again, the narrative that everything that is wrong is due to ' the last 14 years"
My reply was to point out that no it demonstrably is not. The graph clearly shows that the public finances were shot to pieces in 2010 when the Cameron government took over, hence austerity. I accept that there are plenty of arguments about whether that was the right direction to take for so long etc but that wasn't the point.
The point is that this narrative that all ills are due to the last 14 years is nonsense.

Not to mention the fact that there were 4 enormous challenges to deal with:

1. The truly dire state of the public finances in 2010
2. Brexit
3. COVID
4. War in Ukraine

Of course the Tories made plenty of blunders but no government would have found it easy navigating those hurdles. If the last year is anything to go by, Labour may well have done worse, we will never know.