The Labour Government

[Palerider]

I said:

If only we weren't upto £90bn a year worse off.

Upto is not a fact, it's a range. As in you could win upto £10m on the lottery, not £10m exactly (but it could be)-upto.

You really are a pedantic prick sometimes and despite your BKB tag, not always right.

But here's the opening statement. I'll leave you to challenge the assumptions so you can put your fRW spin on it to justify to yourself that you're in now way to blame for the mess we are in:

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

I'm not sure on this at all. From Macrotrends on the internet.

Looking at the GDP in USD trillions for EU powerhouse Germany we have

2010 3468 Tories come to power
2016 3538 Brexit vote
2019 3957 We actually leave
2023 4526 Last full year I can find

For the UK we have

2010 2485
2016 2689
2019 2851
2023 3381

By my calculations since 2010 Germany has grown 31% and we have grown 36%,
Since 2019, Germany has grown 14% and we have grown 19%

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No I don't get your point if UK business have suffered and EU ones haven't then surely France and Germany would be growing more than us and even picking up some of our business. So unless the UK would have grown massively for some unknown reason by staying in, much more than the other two, then why does it look like all 3 of us are doing pretty much the same as we were give or take.
Have businesses concentrated more on domestic markets, have they still managed to do business with the EU regardless, have they explored other countries.
It is probably ridiculously complicated and we will never know.
Anyhow as I haven't met one single person in a decade that has been badly affected and I personally wasn't that bothered about the economics plus we have remainers in charge who could get closer ties then I'm struggling to see why its so prevalent on here.

Much bigger problems to solve.

Business find ways, politicians find excuses. Everyone is too busy pointing at each other rather than actually coming up with new, big and radical ideas. Its why the budget was low on ideas but big on fiddling around the edges. All a bit meh.

Estimates of GDP impact are increasing.

Latest is 6-8%

From Stanford

The Economic Impact of Brexit

Other

siepr.stanford.edu

By all means convince yourself you know better, but you won't convince anyone else.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Net migration to the UK fell by two-thirds in the year ending June 2025 compared with the previous 12 months, provisional figures indicate.

The difference between the number of people arriving in the country and those leaving was 204,000, down from 649,000, with the fall mainly driven by fewer arrivals for work and study reasons, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I'm a Labour supporter,. However, i would love it, just love it if one political party was just honest all of the time. The constant lying, u turns, misdirection and general incompetence has utterly destroyed politics and trust.

It would be great if a government just ran the country in the interests of all its people. The Tories destroyed themselves by fighting with each other and making policy decisons to keep their rebel backanchers at bay. Labour have started doing precisely the same thing. Everything is about preserving their own personal status.

 

[stonerblue]

Well we could stop giving low skilled goons huge pay rises in the form of raising the minimum wage so far and so often which will create more jobs.

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

Nob

 

[hampshireblue]

So, again, you’re happy to quote a big, conveniently round figure which is essentially meaningless.

I have to say though, I do find it amusing how you’re now characterising my questioning of the facts as far right wing.

Presumably glibly posting any old shit you find on the internet, accepting it without the slightest scrutiny or curiosity, spending all day listening to biased political commentary and expressing this as fact are all the hallmarks of a healthy democratic debate, and anyone question this is far right.

Makes sense.

I can't decide if you've just nothing better to do or are being deliberately obtuse. OK let's change the figure I "quote" to £40bn. Any better for you?

Or better still, you find a study that tells a vastly different story. Oh, and it can't be any shit off the internet and needs your rationale for every paragraph.

You have no idea what I/we listen to but if it helps your RW narrative, crack on.

BKB

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I watched a documentary on the fall of civilisations yesterday. It was about Rome.

Reasons Rome fell:

• wealth inequality
• super rich not paying enough into treasury coffers
• mistreatment of migrants
• poor, complacent leadership
• underestimating military threat
• political infighting

Egypt, Aztecs and Samurai Japan next. I'm taking a wild guess that some of the reasons will be consistent for those three.

All sounds kinda familiar.

Humans never learn the lessons of history. One significant reason for the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (before World War 1) was that they missed the boat on the Industrial Revolution by failing to modernise and mechanise in time. They were fixated on their past glories and were overtaken by other western countries who maximised the opportunty. This sounds a bit familiar as well. We have had 14 years of Tories and now Labour. None of them have a vision for the future but they are still fixated on the past, as is virtally all the media.

 

[maxwellblue]

Getting all these lazy fuckers off benefits frees up billions of pounds for capital investment in sectors like AI which”ll promote growth and create jobs

you aren't wrong, although the majority on here will be horrified by your comment.

Just read this, exactly what anyone with an ounce of sense could see was going to happen

MSN

 

[Axel Freed]

Replaced with?

Lower paid stewards ?

 

[Axel Freed]

After 14 years of Tory right wing budgets and a Brexit that boosted our economy, stopped the boats and made us get our country and laws back - you’re hurt by this one budget? Strange. You should be living the life of luxery by now. What happened.

There was unfortunately not much for free market advocates to enjoy in those budgets

 

[Axel Freed]

you aren't wrong, although the majority on here will be horrified by your comment.

MSN

The vocal minority many of whom are virtue signallers who have fuck all to do will always try and shout down common sense. They’ve got a shock coming in 4 years time

 

[BrianW]

Great parallel. I often think the UK is the Austro-Hungary of today. Way too much focus on past glories (often imagined), a political structure more suited to a 19th-century imperial power than today.

Prussia forcibly excluded Austria from the German Zollverein (customs union) to Austria's great disadvantage. We have done to equivalent to ourselves, mostly because of misguided nostalgia for how things used to be.

 

[west didsblue]

I'm not sure on this at all. From Macrotrends on the internet.

Looking at the GDP in USD trillions for EU powerhouse Germany we have

2010 3468 Tories come to power
2016 3538 Brexit vote
2019 3957 We actually leave
2023 4526 Last full year I can find

For the UK we have

2010 2485
2016 2689
2019 2851
2023 3381

By my calculations since 2010 Germany has grown 31% and we have grown 36%,
Since 2019, Germany has grown 14% and we have grown 19%

Germany’s dependence on Russian oil and gas has disproportionately screwed their economy for the last 4 years.

 

[mosssideblue]

The vocal minority many of whom are virtue signallers who have fuck all to do will always try and shout down common sense. They’ve got a shock coming in 4 years time

So, using your "common sense" how would you sort the genuine from the free loaders?

 

[BlueHammer85]

The vocal minority many of whom are virtue signallers who have fuck all to do will always try and shout down common sense. They’ve got a shock coming in 4 years time

You might have.

Reform have gone from 1/4 to 5/6 to win the next election in the space of a few months.

 

[Palerider]

Germany’s dependence on Russian oil and gas has disproportionately screwed their economy for the last 4 years.

Doesn't change the maths.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

It would be great if a government just ran the country in the interests of all its people. The Tories destroyed themselves by fighting with each other and making policy decisons to keep their rebel backanchers at bay. Labour have started doing precisely the same thing. Everything is about preserving their own personal status.

This is the state of 'Government' and has been for some time. The only interest MPs have is to remain in power or achieve power so they can, as it turns out, continue the economic sectarianism we have become accustomed to. They rarely make me feel that I am being governed for the benefit of the national interest.

 

[kaz7]

I have just read the plans for pip and the disability part of UC, they give very exact numbers on who wont get the daily living part of pip, means half the current payment you receive will be lost, if you can be helped by appliances you lose that bit as well

Definite numbers means targets again, the return to ATOS scandal not they will admit to giving the assessors targets to fail

For god sake i have no energy for a fight anymore, fuck off

 

[hilts]

Estimates of GDP impact are increasing.

Latest is 6-8%

From Stanford

The Economic Impact of Brexit

Other

siepr.stanford.edu

View attachment 176026

By all means convince yourself you know better, but you won't convince anyone else.

Not trying to convince anyone I already said im not that bothered about the numbers, we already knew about the 6% to 8% claims thats what started us discussing this.

Im not even gonna try and convince you to read posts and threads properly as you obviously have a closed mind and are certainly not as clever as you think you are:-)

Off you pop.

 

[Palerider]

You might have.

Reform have gone from 1/4 to 5/6 to win the next election in the space of a few months.

Not sure that is true. Checking on Betfair, Reforms lowest ever price was 1.85 (5/6) and are now 2.04 (21/20) to win most seats. Labour are currently 3.75 (11/4).