Really?
Lets assume he makes it all the way to being the MP for Bury. How much power and money is that going to give him and in comparsion to what he already has? If he wanted to make more money out of property he would have joined the tories!
Possible, granted, but arithmetically difficult.It'll be Labour again within the next 2-5 years for another decade or so.
Possible, granted, but arithmetically difficult.
That’s true, but those parliaments reflected a period when the political landscape was markedly different: Scoland for one is now solidly yellow. Labour today, then, would have to overturn a deficit of 80 seats in England, perhaps even more as the proposed boundary changes are set to favour the Conservatives by ~10 seats. Having done that, to serve a decade they would then have to win a second election, which is generally harder to do as the incumbent tends to see its majority shrink. As I say, it is possible, but they would need an enormous swing and victory in England in 2024, and that in my humble would be difficult.Sorry I'm not following. Since Churchill's second reign in the 50s there's only be one period (mid 60s to late 70s) in the last 70 years where the ruling party hasn't had a decade or more in charge.
That’s true, but those parliaments reflected a period when the political landscape was markedly different: Scoland for one is now solidly yellow. Labour today, then, would have to overturn a deficit of 80 seats in England, perhaps even more as the proposed boundary changes are set to favour the Conservatives by ~10 seats. Having done that, to serve a decade they would then have to win a second election, which is generally harder to do as the incumbent tends to see its majority shrink. As I say, it is possible, but they would need an enormous swing and victory in England in 2024, and that in my humble would be difficult.
Labour probably needs to ignore Scotland as the arguments needed to win Scottish seats would be at odds with the arguments needed to win English seats, and likely lead to fewer gains in the latter, where they really must win if they want to hold power. It might also have to contest an earlier than anticipated General Election and face a different prime minister. That could be a plus but it would also mean it has less time to prepare and less time to convince the English electorate of Starmer’s vision.Ah okay I thought you had issue with the length I mentioned but it's more that I think that Labour will take over again.
Yeah it's looking unlikely at this moment in time but the tides can quickly change. Both parties are currently preparing their new challengers for the next General Election and if the Tories have a shocker then that will open the door for Labour.
Scotland is a good point though. I wonder if her antics around Covid will have damaged the SNP. Can only know when the GE comes around. Until then it's just guess work.
Very interesting and worrying analysisLabour probably needs to ignore Scotland as the arguments needed to win Scottish seats would be at odds with the arguments needed to win English seats, and likely lead to fewer gains in the latter, where they really must win if they want to hold power. It might also have to contest an earlier than anticipated General Election and face a different prime minister. That could be a plus but it would also mean it has less time to prepare and less time to convince the English electorate of Starmer’s vision.
Even when aided with the current Conservative obsession for self-destruction, an outright victory for Labour could remain elusive.
You might find this interesting: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labour-winning-150/
An indy ref is political suicide for Labour. Its brexit 2.0 but a kind of reverse brexit where it would be seen as the break up of the union. I think its more likely you have a labour minority government tolerated by the SNP than labour agreeing to a 2nd vote.Very interesting and worrying analysis
Seems like Labour have little chance of winning the next GE unless the Tories cause their own implosion, - oh wait.........
The chance of inroads against the SNP is fanciful - so the best that can be achieved is perhaps a Labour/SNP coalition, the price of which would be a date for a 2nd Indyref?
If the next GE is held in May 2024, then Scotland may have already left the building. Labour really needs to concentrate on winning in England and not fall into the trap of awaiting a Conservative implosion that will see the keys fall in its lap.An indy ref is political suicide for Labour. Its brexit 2.0 but a kind of reverse brexit where it would be seen as the break up of the union. I think its more likely you have a labour minority government tolerated by the SNP than labour agreeing to a 2nd vote.
I wouldn't mind a minority / coalition government as it could bring in electoral reform.
The arguments that might win back voters in the North are likely to alienate voters in Scotland further, and vice versa. Even the behavior of the Scottish Conservatives over Johnson shows how different the battlegrounds have become.Very interesting and worrying analysis
Seems like Labour have little chance of winning the next GE unless the Tories cause their own implosion, - oh wait.........
The chance of inroads against the SNP is fanciful - so the best that can be achieved is perhaps a Labour/SNP coalition, the price of which would be a date for a 2nd Indyref?
I think that if the price of getting the Tories out was to commit to a 2nd Indyref - then Labour might caveAn indy ref is political suicide for Labour. Its brexit 2.0 but a kind of reverse brexit where it would be seen as the break up of the union. I think its more likely you have a labour minority government tolerated by the SNP than labour agreeing to a 2nd vote.
I wouldn't mind a minority / coalition government as it could bring in electoral reform.
Well Cameron made a similar calculation. He agreed to a brexit ref knowing it would buy him some tory friends and votes but also knowing it would be a massive pain in the arse.I think that if the price of getting the Tories out was to commit to a 2nd Indyref - then Labour might cave
Not sure how Scotland are going to leave. There is zero chance the tories allow it on their watch. They might be doing everything possible to sour the relationship but allowing an indy ref and break up would be suicide.If the next GE is held in May 2024, then Scotland may have already left the building. Labour really needs to concentrate on winning in England and not fall into the trap of awaiting a Conservative implosion that will see the keys fall in its lap.
They allowed the first referendum on their watch, so it’s not hard impossible that it could happen again. The SNP is committed to calling for one after the pandemic, a time drawing near, but before the end of 2023. That means it’s going to become a more prominent issue before May 2024. Given how dismissive they now are of Scottish Conservatives, not just Scottish MPs, I’m not entirely sure that the Conservative heart is in keeping the Union.Not sure how Scotland are going to leave. There is zero chance the tories allow it on their watch. They might be doing everything possible to sour the relationship but allowing an indy ref and break up would be suicide.
Cameron never thought he would lose don't think Labour could say the same. Anyhow it should be up to the Scottish people and not Westminster. If they want a vote they should have one.Well Cameron made a similar calculation. He agreed to a brexit ref knowing it would buy him some tory friends and votes but also knowing it would be a massive pain in the arse.
Labour i would hope would learn from that.
Maybe he has found his natural home after all