The Labour Party

BrianW said:
Looks like about 18% lead. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#

I would say it's all but impossible for the Tories to come back from that, it's now about the size of the Labour majority and how many Tory MPs there will be after the GE.
Click to expand...

Interestingly, you can go back a long way and the lowest number that Tories have ever formed a government with is Cameron’s 36% in 2010 (and even then he had to form a coalition). Every other Tory government formed going back to WWII has needed greater than 36%.

They’re currently wallowing in the high 20s in every poll - which is always a default loss (though theoretically could win with unprecedented left wing vote splitting). The big problem they’ll have is their lack of ability to attract new voters. Now Brexit is a busted flush which attracted about 6%+ voters to their side, and they have slipped below their 36% waterline they then need to start bringing more young voters in than the opposition… which frankly they’ve not done for actual decades.

I did a piece of analysis on another site which showed that because of their demographics their vote share will fall 1.5-2.0% every election cycle until they reverse the trend of losing young voters to the opposition. If their natural baseline level is less than 36% and they’re dropping 2% per cycle of their traditional older voter base then they are badly badly fucked to the point of needing to reinvent themselves or face extinction.
 
BrianW said:
Looks like about 18% lead. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#

I would say it's all but impossible for the Tories to come back from that, it's now about the size of the Labour majority and how many Tory MPs there will be after the GE.
Click to expand...
There are a few problems with the polls that make things a lot trickier.

For a start, actual elections have never been won with the 20%+ leads various leaders have had. It's almost certain that will drop a lot towards the election.

Many more of the Tory 2019 voters are answering "don't know" when asked about the next election that the 2019 Labour vote. This could be a reluctance that ebbs away when it comes to actually voting.

Labour *could* need up to 13% lead just to get a majority. A few of the polling companies have suggested this, although with a lot of tactical voting this could come down significantly - the problem is we don't know how much there will be.

Add it together, and those leads look a lot less uncertain - particularly in terms of getting a majority.
 
I think a major factor at the GE will be whether younger voters (pretty much anyone under 50) can be arsed to get out and vote or not.

That may depend on whether their anger at the Tory Party (very strong in many younger people) exceeds their indifference to a Labour Party that offers very little to them - or anyone else.

Another major factor will be the extent (or not) of tactical voting against the Tories.

Of course, the ridiculous and totally indefensible FPTP voting system does not help. So much depends on not how many votes you have, but whether they are concentrated in particular constituencies. 20 million votes spread out evenly across the country nets very few seats. That's why it's a fucking farce and why I laugh at notions such as 'mandates'. It's like me claiming to be the most popular man in this house.
 
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