The next Recession!

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

 

[its a Barm]

thought we where in one already.

 

[worsleyweb]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

As my old man says - when you have lived in Colyhurst in the 1940s then you will know what a recession is. The world will still spin.

 

[meeesh]

thought we where in one already.

Never been out of one really

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

As my old man says - when you have lived in Colyhurst in the 1940s then you will know what a recession is. The world will still spin.

I had you down as a flat earther - in which case it doesn't!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Never been out of one really

Negative last Qtr but expected to bounce back so we will avoid the official definition of 2QTRS negative. If that happens then the erliest an officail recession could be called would be half way through 2020. If the rate my wife spends money continues as is we may even be fine then!

 

[blueinsa]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well

So i didn't need to stock up on spam or learn how to kill zombies at the front door?

 

[meeesh]

Negative last Qtr but expected to bounce back so we will avoid the official definition of 2QTRS negative. If that happens then the erliest an officail recession could be called would be half way through 2020. If the rate my wife spends money continues as is we may even be fine then!

Statistic graphs try to paint a pretty picture at times,if (as usual) based on the High Street figures,manufacturing and quite a few other segments of industry are struggling.

I'm just glad people still like going to the pub,well I will be when this bloody Stoptober ends,the calm before the storm I hope.

 

[Scottyboi]

Have new car sales gone down? They say that is sometimes an indication.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Have new car sales gone down? They say that is sometimes an indication.

A quick google tells me its down -2.5% for car sales year to date. New van sales are up YTD but fell by 23% in september against the prior month.