The next Recession!

Gaudion M said:
As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.
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I'd say we've just slid into one. Economic conditions are awful at the moment. We both know why.
 
allblackcitizen said:
What about the ones that come in the back or up through the floorboards? Seems that your woefully unprepared for the zombie apocalypse.
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Only because i wasn't told about them by vote leave.

That said even if they had I'm a bit of a thick **** so probably would have either forgot or no realised what they was talking about.

So long as there are none of them foreign zombies coz im a bit of a racist as well.
 
Gaudion M said:
As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.
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Look at the states.

They have had a good growth period. But they have "grown" whilst

Having their highest per capita personal debt.
Having their highest federal debt.
Having their highest corporate debt.
Having their highest level of student debt.

Their borrowing/debt curve is almost exponential now.

The recession isn't if it's when.
 
I think the difference between recessions in the past and now is that central banks will do almost anything to help the economy. Negative interest rates, more QE etc. I think if we get one, then it is likely to be short lived (I’m talking global rather than just U.K.)
 
It's becoming a bit of a cliché now but the western economies have effectively been in an induced coma and on life support since 2008 and as things stand there won't be any dramatic downturns or any real growth either.

The impact of 2008 was never allowed to fully play out because it would have effectively been the end of the current debt based fiat money system
 
I run a small business and bought a business partner out of the business in 2009 after 10 years of fantastic year on year figures.......since I bought him out it has been the toughest 10 years of my life financially as my turnover dropped by over 30%.
Just by chance City have been brilliant and it does my head in as if business had been good I'd have been half way round Europe watching them......but I believe everything happens for a reason!!!!!
 
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