The next Recession!

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

 

[its a Barm]

thought we where in one already.

 

[worsleyweb]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

As my old man says - when you have lived in Colyhurst in the 1940s then you will know what a recession is. The world will still spin.

 

[meeesh]

thought we where in one already.

Never been out of one really

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

As my old man says - when you have lived in Colyhurst in the 1940s then you will know what a recession is. The world will still spin.

I had you down as a flat earther - in which case it doesn't!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Never been out of one really

Negative last Qtr but expected to bounce back so we will avoid the official definition of 2QTRS negative. If that happens then the erliest an officail recession could be called would be half way through 2020. If the rate my wife spends money continues as is we may even be fine then!

 

[blueinsa]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well

So i didn't need to stock up on spam or learn how to kill zombies at the front door?

 

[meeesh]

Negative last Qtr but expected to bounce back so we will avoid the official definition of 2QTRS negative. If that happens then the erliest an officail recession could be called would be half way through 2020. If the rate my wife spends money continues as is we may even be fine then!

Statistic graphs try to paint a pretty picture at times,if (as usual) based on the High Street figures,manufacturing and quite a few other segments of industry are struggling.

I'm just glad people still like going to the pub,well I will be when this bloody Stoptober ends,the calm before the storm I hope.

 

[Scottyboi]

Have new car sales gone down? They say that is sometimes an indication.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Have new car sales gone down? They say that is sometimes an indication.

A quick google tells me its down -2.5% for car sales year to date. New van sales are up YTD but fell by 23% in september against the prior month.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

I'd say we've just slid into one. Economic conditions are awful at the moment. We both know why.

 

[allblackcitizen]

So i didn't need to stock up on spam or learn how to kill zombies at the front door?

What about the ones that come in the back or up through the floorboards? Seems that your woefully unprepared for the zombie apocalypse.

 

[blueinsa]

What about the ones that come in the back or up through the floorboards? Seems that your woefully unprepared for the zombie apocalypse.

Only because i wasn't told about them by vote leave.

That said even if they had I'm a bit of a thick **** so probably would have either forgot or no realised what they was talking about.

So long as there are none of them foreign zombies coz im a bit of a racist as well.

 

[mindmyp's_n_q's]

As a bit of an armchair economist I have been seeing signs of an impending recession for a couple of years, but we and the rest of the world seem to be bouncing along pretty well, jobs numbers are very high globbaly and therefore GDP growth is tracking moderatley upward in most countries.

But you look at the more subtle financial indicators and they are all showing some pretty alarming trends. Interest rates are low yet investment returns are also low, Banks can't make money in that environment - when they cant make money they tend to reign things in as the returns are not worth the risk. Barclays have just anounced an 80% drop in profits. The chairman saying:-

We acknowledge that the outlook for next year is unquestionably more challenging now than it appeared a year ago, in particular given the uncertainty around the UK economy and the interest rate environment,”.

If you subscribe to the idea that these things always move in cycles then we had the dot com crash of 2000/2001, the credit crunch of 2007/8/9 (although you could argue that went on for 5 years or more) and we are now circa 10 years beyond that. Next year could well be tough.

Look at the states.

They have had a good growth period. But they have "grown" whilst

Having their highest per capita personal debt.
Having their highest federal debt.
Having their highest corporate debt.
Having their highest level of student debt.

Their borrowing/debt curve is almost exponential now.

The recession isn't if it's when.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

It's Sterlings fault ( not the currency ) and Brexit. We're doooooooomed, run for the hills.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

I think the difference between recessions in the past and now is that central banks will do almost anything to help the economy. Negative interest rates, more QE etc. I think if we get one, then it is likely to be short lived (I’m talking global rather than just U.K.)

 

[jacko74]

It's becoming a bit of a cliché now but the western economies have effectively been in an induced coma and on life support since 2008 and as things stand there won't be any dramatic downturns or any real growth either.

The impact of 2008 was never allowed to fully play out because it would have effectively been the end of the current debt based fiat money system

 

[idahoblues]

So i didn't need to stock up on spam or learn how to kill zombies at the front door?

Spam and shotgun shells should always be close to hand

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Surely the recession started in June 2016? We've been getting calamitous economic news ever since.

 

[henrythedogcity]

I run a small business and bought a business partner out of the business in 2009 after 10 years of fantastic year on year figures.......since I bought him out it has been the toughest 10 years of my life financially as my turnover dropped by over 30%.
Just by chance City have been brilliant and it does my head in as if business had been good I'd have been half way round Europe watching them......but I believe everything happens for a reason!!!!!