The official GAMBLING TIPS thread.

[St Helens Blue (Exiled)]

Tonights treble :-

Anzhi, Steaua , Hannover - Pays around 10-1.

But I really fancy a nibble at Dortmund for the Champions league. 9-1

Me too, best team in the competion

I think my run may come to an end tonight. Only had a small wager on that treble pal.

 

[bluehousemusic]

Ireland v Greece

Panama v Spain

Russia v USA

Luxembourg v Scotland

Gabon v Portugal

Northern Ireland v Azerbaijan

£10 wins just under £200

One team will fuck it up

So, as i said Tidyman, dont bet on International friendlies, just do goals galore.

5/6 picks had both teams scoring.
Only 2/6 results came in

Thats why i used the RED BOLD CAPITALS. :-D

Well I'm not 100% convinced that because you only managed two out of six that the case is closed on the matter.

I do take your point though on friendlies.

Although you'll never convince me goals galore shite is the way to go because the FACT is, you are never getting value on these bets.

You are wrong there, goals galore is derided from the total goals expectancy in the game, if one of the many bookmakers offering the market have incorrectly calculated the TG expectancy then mathematical value will present itself. Half of them don't even price the games up anymore but take feeds, which means that half the time no one knows where the price has derived from. Some of the odds compilers at Betfred and Coral are prehistoric, they don't have a scooby doo about goals and supremacy expectation, you can see it week in week out, the game has come a long way, and certain amounts of their client base is shrewder than their compilers.

To be a successful gambler it is all about mathematical value, you take a price on an event occurring that represents less of a chance than you make it, you need to factor in how wrong you could be say a few extra %. Of course you could do down the arbitrage route and take advantage of price differentials, that however isn't successful gambling, that's just playing the markets and guaranteeing a profit with zero risk

Value raises it's beautiful head every minute of every day, it's just the getting on that's difficult

 

[bluehousemusic]

you think that's a safe bet ??

i'd go for norwich and wigan meself for a much better price. I#ll even back Norwich alone to beat utd if they're at home.

-- Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:07 am --




my favourite bet along with full time/draw. I got 22/1 on the England game which would have been a minimum of 28's last season

So, something like this...

CITY v villa
REAL MADRID v athletic bilbao
VALENCIA v espanyol
granada v ATLETICO MADRID
PSG v rennes

All HT/FT double result

£10 wins £178

The trick is to identify games where you are very confident about 1 team winning. E.g. Barca at home.

If you commit that the FT outcome will be a Barca win, it's no longer a double result. You're effectively reducing the double result to 3 options:-

1. Barca/Barca
2. Draw/Barca
3. Away/Barca

If the away team has a bit of organisation about them, I go for option 2. If they can hold out until HT, you're on Barca at 9/2.
I usually perm them in groups of 3 teams in a reduced stake Patent. Highest stake on Singles, smallest on Trebles.

1 from 3 returns my stake, 2 from 3 is 4/1, 3 from 3 is 16/1.
Since I started doing it, the odds for Draw//Fav have consistently dropped. I used to use Laddies as they had a standard price for all matches in all leagues. They started limiting my stakes, then significantly cut the prices. Which in turn limits profit levels.

They cut the prices because they finally started using T.Gs and Supremacy to generate their HT/FT prices, prior to this change they were using medieval look up charts based on the price of the favourite

 

[bluehousemusic]

Has anyone ever bet on the cards market in football ?

This is where a yellow counts as 10 points and a red 25 points. You can bet on Over 30 or Under 40 etc, whatever you think the total points might be.

My question is, if a player gets 2 yellows and is sent off is that then a total of 45 points or just 25 ?

That total with both spread firms and fixed odds firms is 35 points. When a player gets two yellows it is always counted as 35 points with all firms

 

[greasedupdeafguy]

Tonights treble :-

Anzhi, Steaua , Hannover - Pays around 10-1.

But I really fancy a nibble at Dortmund for the Champions league. 9-1

Me too, best team in the competion

Not even the best team in germany

 

[Hamann Pineapple]

Today's treble

Anzhi
Rosenburg
Napoli

Pays about 4/1

Napoli are fucking shite away from home, mate. They were battered at both PSV and Dnipro, and with AIK knowing a win tonight will put them into 2nd, instead of Napoli, it might not be the best bet (watch it come in now)!

Left it late. I love Cavani ;)

 

[Blue Punter]

They cut the prices because they finally started using T.Gs and Supremacy to generate their HT/FT prices, prior to this change they were using medieval look up charts based on the price of the favourite

Correct up to a point, balloonblue. Some bookies (Stan James & Laddies are prime examples) have, but you're incorrect to say every bookie has.

There's plenty online and a few on the high street who still work within that fixed odds framework. Not just on HT Draw/FT Fav. It's across the board on double result betting. Pretty much unchanged. Hope it remains that way.

 

[tidyman]

So, as i said Tidyman, dont bet on International friendlies, just do goals galore.

5/6 picks had both teams scoring.
Only 2/6 results came in

Thats why i used the RED BOLD CAPITALS. :-D

Well I'm not 100% convinced that because you only managed two out of six that the case is closed on the matter.

I do take your point though on friendlies.

Although you'll never convince me goals galore shite is the way to go because the FACT is, you are never getting value on these bets.

You are wrong there, goals galore is derided from the total goals expectancy in the game, if one of the many bookmakers offering the market have incorrectly calculated the TG expectancy then mathematical value will present itself. Half of them don't even price the games up anymore but take feeds, which means that half the time no one knows where the price has derived from. Some of the odds compilers at Betfred and Coral are prehistoric, they don't have a scooby doo about goals and supremacy expectation, you can see it week in week out, the game has come a long way, and certain amounts of their client base is shrewder than their compilers.

To be a successful gambler it is all about mathematical value, you take a price on an event occurring that represents less of a chance than you make it, you need to factor in how wrong you could be say a few extra %. Of course you could do down the arbitrage route and take advantage of price differentials, that however isn't successful gambling, that's just playing the markets and guaranteeing a profit with zero risk

Value raises it's beautiful head every minute of every day, it's just the getting on that's difficult

You obviously know what your on about mate but no will ever convince me that this goals galore bollocks will offer value anytime apart from maybe an isolated game with a freakishly high goal expectancy that they have overlooked. I'll make a confession and admit I have never seriously studied this bet because there are so many things that point to it being a waste of time doing so.

If I'm not wrong when it first started, every game was the same set price to come in. Apart from a rare occasion when they would trim the price on a particular game if it stood out as having a high goal expectancy. Now that says to me, one of two things. They were either pricing every game by using the average price of all games for each individual match and in doing so, giving immediate value on all matches with a higher than average goal expectancy. Or they were taking the price that would apply to a game at the top end of goal expectancy and applying it to all games, immediately making most games bad value. As I never heard of anyone getting rich off it, I'm guessing the first scenario didn't happen. They then went and cut the standard price after a season. Whether this was because of what you say or because they realised how many mugs were blindly doing a weekly 5 fold, irrespective of price and thought they may aswell increase their profits, is debatable.

I'll concede that I may have been wrong to say there is never any value on any game. But I'd suggest it is that small and that rare, that your time would be much better spent looking elsewhere.

I know one thing that is a fact though and that is that Done spends enourmous amounts of money on advertising and it seems the majority of it is spent encouraging people to waste their money on goals galore and that suggests only one thing to me.

I know nothing of anyone who works for Betfred but back in the days when I was taking gambling very seriously, Corals main football odds compiler was John Wright, who was highly respected in the industry.

 

[GX Blue]

Right chaps....

Heres a nice acc for Saturday - around 11/1.

EVERTON V Norwich

M'BORO V Bristol City

MK DONS V Colchester

DONCASTER V Scunthorpe

COVENTRY V Pompey

Put your £10er on = £120 back - Use William Hill App so if only 4 win you get your money back....

I also like

PSV v Vitese

Levante V Barcelona

Betis V Real Madrid

Boro v Bristol City

MK Dons V Colchester

£10 = £60. Im thinking £50 for £250. Obviously through Will Hill App for insurance for 4 winning.

 

[Latics Fan SJK]

I've just thwacked a £5 on this....

7 home wins @ 60/1

MIDDLESBROUGH (3rd) v Bristol City (23rd)
BLACKBURN (6th) v Millwall (9th)
BLACKPOOL (12th) v Watford (11th)
MK DONS (3rd) v Colchester (16th)
COVENTRY (15th) v Portsmouth (21st)
DONCASTER (4th) v Scunthorpe (23rd)
CHELTENHAM (3rd) v Barnet (24th)

and £20 on this...

4 home inc 1 handicap @ 8/1

DONCASTER (4th) v Scunthorpe (23rd)
CHELTENHAM (3rd) v Barnet (24th)
HULL (4th) v Burnley (15th)
MAN UTD (2nd) -1 v QPR (20th)