blueballoon said:
You are wrong there, goals galore is derided from the total goals expectancy in the game, if one of the many bookmakers offering the market have incorrectly calculated the TG expectancy then mathematical value will present itself. Half of them don't even price the games up anymore but take feeds, which means that half the time no one knows where the price has derived from. Some of the odds compilers at Betfred and Coral are prehistoric, they don't have a scooby doo about goals and supremacy expectation, you can see it week in week out, the game has come a long way, and certain amounts of their client base is shrewder than their compilers.
To be a successful gambler it is all about mathematical value, you take a price on an event occurring that represents less of a chance than you make it, you need to factor in how wrong you could be say a few extra %. Of course you could do down the arbitrage route and take advantage of price differentials, that however isn't successful gambling, that's just playing the markets and guaranteeing a profit with zero risk
Value raises it's beautiful head every minute of every day, it's just the getting on that's difficult
You obviously know what your on about mate but no will ever convince me that this goals galore bollocks will offer value anytime apart from maybe an isolated game with a freakishly high goal expectancy that they have overlooked. I'll make a confession and admit I have never seriously studied this bet because there are so many things that point to it being a waste of time doing so.
If I'm not wrong when it first started, every game was the same set price to come in. Apart from a rare occasion when they would trim the price on a particular game if it stood out as having a high goal expectancy. Now that says to me, one of two things. They were either pricing every game by using the average price of all games for each individual match and in doing so, giving immediate value on all matches with a higher than average goal expectancy. Or they were taking the price that would apply to a game at the top end of goal expectancy and applying it to all games, immediately making most games bad value. As I never heard of anyone getting rich off it, I'm guessing the first scenario didn't happen. They then went and cut the standard price after a season. Whether this was because of what you say or because they realised how many mugs were blindly doing a weekly 5 fold, irrespective of price and thought they may aswell increase their profits, is debatable.
I'll concede that I may have been wrong to say there is never any value on any game. But I'd suggest it is that small and that rare, that your time would be much better spent looking elsewhere.
I know one thing that is a fact though and that is that Done spends enourmous amounts of money on advertising and it seems the majority of it is spent encouraging people to waste their money on goals galore and that suggests only one thing to me.
I know nothing of anyone who works for Betfred but back in the days when I was taking gambling very seriously, Corals main football odds compiler was John Wright, who was highly respected in the industry.
