The official GAMBLING TIPS thread.

tidyman said:
blueballoon said:
tidyman said:
Well I'm not 100% convinced that because you only managed two out of six that the case is closed on the matter.

I do take your point though on friendlies.

Although you'll never convince me goals galore shite is the way to go because the FACT is, you are never getting value on these bets.

You are wrong there, goals galore is derided from the total goals expectancy in the game, if one of the many bookmakers offering the market have incorrectly calculated the TG expectancy then mathematical value will present itself. Half of them don't even price the games up anymore but take feeds, which means that half the time no one knows where the price has derived from. Some of the odds compilers at Betfred and Coral are prehistoric, they don't have a scooby doo about goals and supremacy expectation, you can see it week in week out, the game has come a long way, and certain amounts of their client base is shrewder than their compilers.

To be a successful gambler it is all about mathematical value, you take a price on an event occurring that represents less of a chance than you make it, you need to factor in how wrong you could be say a few extra %. Of course you could do down the arbitrage route and take advantage of price differentials, that however isn't successful gambling, that's just playing the markets and guaranteeing a profit with zero risk

Value raises it's beautiful head every minute of every day, it's just the getting on that's difficult

You obviously know what your on about mate but no will ever convince me that this goals galore bollocks will offer value anytime apart from maybe an isolated game with a freakishly high goal expectancy that they have overlooked. I'll make a confession and admit I have never seriously studied this bet because there are so many things that point to it being a waste of time doing so.

If I'm not wrong when it first started, every game was the same set price to come in. Apart from a rare occasion when they would trim the price on a particular game if it stood out as having a high goal expectancy. Now that says to me, one of two things. They were either pricing every game by using the average price of all games for each individual match and in doing so, giving immediate value on all matches with a higher than average goal expectancy. Or they were taking the price that would apply to a game at the top end of goal expectancy and applying it to all games, immediately making most games bad value. As I never heard of anyone getting rich off it, I'm guessing the first scenario didn't happen. They then went and cut the standard price after a season. Whether this was because of what you say or because they realised how many mugs were blindly doing a weekly 5 fold, irrespective of price and thought they may aswell increase their profits, is debatable.

I'll concede that I may have been wrong to say there is never any value on any game. But I'd suggest it is that small and that rare, that your time would be much better spent looking elsewhere.

I know one thing that is a fact though and that is that Done spends enourmous amounts of money on advertising and it seems the majority of it is spent encouraging people to waste their money on goals galore and that suggests only one thing to me.

I know nothing of anyone who works for Betfred but back in the days when I was taking gambling very seriously, Corals main football odds compiler was John Wright, who was highly respected in the industry.

John Wright is now head of trading at Boyles.

You are correct in that the vast majority of goals galore prices are sound for the bookmaker, but you hit the nail on the head when you said they got the expectancy wrong, which they do. Firstly they often have to price the events up before the previous round of games have hit been resulted. Now I am no firm believer in one game form, but suspensions and injuries do make an impact, and secondly they are pricing them when their is little underlying market, so they haven't got the tracing paper to copy. Many odds compilers couldn't price a fucking coin toss mate, it's about your face fitting in half them organizations.
Firms that offer one side, have you by the bollocks, but remember they have the market online and on the phone, offering both sides, if you can get on their is always an angle.
 
The cookie monster said:
sjk2008 said:
The cookie monster said:
I think donny may be the one on that accum that could do you
Scunthorpe pretty good away and have amassed more points away than donny have at home

Yep, I noted that. However, they are both where they are in the league for a reason, and hopefully it's that, that will mean Doncaster pick up the win :-)
Hope so for you mate

Am doing a short price double
Everton and middlesborough..

Everton-My pick-Did my works accy last week.What price is that double mate?
 
St Helens Blue (Exiled) said:
The cookie monster said:
sjk2008 said:
Yep, I noted that. However, they are both where they are in the league for a reason, and hopefully it's that, that will mean Doncaster pick up the win :-)
Hope so for you mate

Am doing a short price double
Everton and middlesborough..

Everton-My pick-Did my works accy last week.What price is that double mate?
Is only about 11/8 mate
 
blueballoon said:
tidyman said:
blueballoon said:
You are wrong there, goals galore is derided from the total goals expectancy in the game, if one of the many bookmakers offering the market have incorrectly calculated the TG expectancy then mathematical value will present itself. Half of them don't even price the games up anymore but take feeds, which means that half the time no one knows where the price has derived from. Some of the odds compilers at Betfred and Coral are prehistoric, they don't have a scooby doo about goals and supremacy expectation, you can see it week in week out, the game has come a long way, and certain amounts of their client base is shrewder than their compilers.

To be a successful gambler it is all about mathematical value, you take a price on an event occurring that represents less of a chance than you make it, you need to factor in how wrong you could be say a few extra %. Of course you could do down the arbitrage route and take advantage of price differentials, that however isn't successful gambling, that's just playing the markets and guaranteeing a profit with zero risk

Value raises it's beautiful head every minute of every day, it's just the getting on that's difficult

You obviously know what your on about mate but no will ever convince me that this goals galore bollocks will offer value anytime apart from maybe an isolated game with a freakishly high goal expectancy that they have overlooked. I'll make a confession and admit I have never seriously studied this bet because there are so many things that point to it being a waste of time doing so.

If I'm not wrong when it first started, every game was the same set price to come in. Apart from a rare occasion when they would trim the price on a particular game if it stood out as having a high goal expectancy. Now that says to me, one of two things. They were either pricing every game by using the average price of all games for each individual match and in doing so, giving immediate value on all matches with a higher than average goal expectancy. Or they were taking the price that would apply to a game at the top end of goal expectancy and applying it to all games, immediately making most games bad value. As I never heard of anyone getting rich off it, I'm guessing the first scenario didn't happen. They then went and cut the standard price after a season. Whether this was because of what you say or because they realised how many mugs were blindly doing a weekly 5 fold, irrespective of price and thought they may aswell increase their profits, is debatable.

I'll concede that I may have been wrong to say there is never any value on any game. But I'd suggest it is that small and that rare, that your time would be much better spent looking elsewhere.

I know one thing that is a fact though and that is that Done spends enourmous amounts of money on advertising and it seems the majority of it is spent encouraging people to waste their money on goals galore and that suggests only one thing to me.

I know nothing of anyone who works for Betfred but back in the days when I was taking gambling very seriously, Corals main football odds compiler was John Wright, who was highly respected in the industry.

John Wright is now head of trading at Boyles.

You are correct in that the vast majority of goals galore prices are sound for the bookmaker, but you hit the nail on the head when you said they got the expectancy wrong, which they do. Firstly they often have to price the events up before the previous round of games have hit been resulted. Now I am no firm believer in one game form, but suspensions and injuries do make an impact, and secondly they are pricing them when their is little underlying market, so they haven't got the tracing paper to copy. Many odds compilers couldn't price a fucking coin toss mate, it's about your face fitting in half them organizations.
Firms that offer one side, have you by the bollocks, but remember they have the market online and on the phone, offering both sides, if you can get on their is always an angle.

Well I'll certainly agree there is always an angle somewhere if your prepared and know how to, look for it. And while the majority of football punters continue betting from the viewpoint of picking who they think will win and as an afterthought finding out the price, the layers will be on easy street.

I personally rarely trouble myself trying to eek out a bit of value on something as profitable to the bookies as Premier League football, these days.

I prefer concentrating on sports they often don't do the homework they should on, like American Football, tennis and golf.
 
blueballoon said:
Blue Punter said:
They cut the prices because they finally started using T.Gs and Supremacy to generate their HT/FT prices, prior to this change they were using medieval look up charts based on the price of the favourite

Correct up to a point, balloonblue. Some bookies (Stan James & Laddies are prime examples) have, but you're incorrect to say every bookie has.

There's plenty online and a few on the high street who still work within that fixed odds framework. Not just on HT Draw/FT Fav. It's across the board on double result betting. Pretty much unchanged. Hope it remains that way.

The over rounds are generally high so I tend not to bother with the market. But I know for a fact that Hills and Lads generate their numbers for nearly all their markets from TG's and Supremacy. I would hazard a guess that only the Tote/Freds and Coral don't use these methods, they are medieval in their working practices

Correct, Baldy & Corals still price up using the match odds chart.
 
my small stakes lucky 15 for this week, not beyond the realms of possibility

20tijp5.jpg


35p lucky 15 pays £234.12
 

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