The Russians are on their way...why am I not shocked.

[Plaything of the gods]

As you said, they most likely won't engage the Russians, but they'll lend their military "support" to Ukraine.

If it gets to it m8 that's how I see it going.

Another supplying of arms war.

Conflict is about an historical sphere of influence; it is about keeping the Russian bear in its cage; it is business vs feudalism. Supplying arms for war is what business does, so that's a win. Except for the unfortunate people of the Ukraine of course.

 

[marco]

just turing this around for the moment 50% of the population of crimea swing towards the west the other to the east if the boot was on the other foot and america had invaded crimea i think the russians would have been in by now chucking nukes around

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I'm sorry that buzzer doesn't feel like posting in here much anymore. He's a real forum character and I'd certainly go for a pint with him, as I reckon he'd be pretty good company.

On topic, national sovereignty should represent the will of the people and it would seem that Ukraine is currently an anomalous mix of people who look in different directions, culturally. National borders have been subject to change throughout human history and it's surely better that it occurs peaceably, rather than via conflict: the end result is the same.

Split Ukraine up. It might give Russia a little more global power, but these things are subject to ebb and flow in any event. It's not going to serve to tip the scales in Russia's favour, or anything like, but rather diffuse a potential source of a truly worrying escalation of hostilities in the region and possibly beyond.

 

[mindmyp's_n_q's]

just turing this around for the moment 50% of the population of crimea swing towards the west the other to the east if the boot was on the other foot and america had invaded crimea i think the russians would have been in by now chucking nukes around

The Russians have already seen diplomatic communications between the USA and the people behind the removal of the old Ukrainian president where they basically are choosing who should be the new leader at least two weeks before he was finally ousted.

On that basis I think the Russians have already decided which foot the boot was on when this kicked off.

 

[Damocles]

Split Ukraine up. It might give Russia a little more global power, but these things are subject to ebb and flow in any event. It's not going to serve to tip the scales in Russia's favour, or anything like, but rather diffuse a potential source of a truly worrying escalation of hostilities in the region and possibly beyond.

The problem is that Russia moved a bunch of Russian immigrants to Crimea, threw out the natives and are now invading to "keep their people safe".

Let's say we just randomly give Crimea to Russia to save peace. What happens when they want Donetsk too? Give them that? Then what about Kharkiv?

Let's just say that we split the Ukraine up and give them the Eastern half.

What about when they try the same thing in Estonia, a member of the EU, who has over 60% Russian living in their North West? Do we give an EU country over to the Russians?

This isn't a fantasy, Crimea is the third time they've used these tactics in the last few years. They did exactly the same in Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which they still occupy or hold puppet regimes within.

How much European land do we allow the Russians to claim in the name of diffusion of tensions? Up to Berlin?

 

[IrelandSuperman]

If they let Crimea go this opens a huge can of worms. Remember that the Georgia conflict was contested basically on the same grounds: Mother Russia came to protect ethnic Russians. Which is bollocks. Now, Russia can start pumping oligarchs and nouveau riche into any of its neighbour countries, wait a decade, destabilize, then send in the tanks saying they are protecting their citizens or whatever. It's sickening.

Edit. I see Damocles already saying essentially the same thing there.

 

[bezer57]

This is mildly worrying.

When the USSR broke up, as I understand it some of the the former USSR's strategic nuclear weapons were stored in Ukrainian territory.

The deal struck between Russia and Ukraine was that the weapons would be retrieved by Russia, and would thereafter be part of the sovereign assets of the Russian Republic and the Ukraine would have no claim on them. The quid pro quo was that Russia would forever more respect the territorial integrity of the Ukraine.

That obligation on Russia to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity is guaranteed by two western powers - the USA and the United Kingdom.

We have, in other words, a treaty obligation to go to Ukraine's aid if Russia violates its territorial integrity - including Ukrainian airspace.

This one could go nasty, people.

Putin must be shitting it - with the prospect of the UK military might storming into the Crimea with a water pistol and a pitch fork. We have no military capability - so we can forget any kind of military action. I'm not sure the US has the stomach for this either - although they do have the military might to more than go toe to toe with Russia. The Soviet Union may have collapsed but Russia has no respect for its neighbors and will manipulate this situation for maximum benefit. Putin is dangerous and the world stood by and let him bully Georgia - he will do the same here. The British more that any race should know appeasement is a waste of time where bully's are concerned. Unfortunately without any military capability and the total ineptness of the EU we will be wholly reliant on the US to manage this.

The ruskisi army now has very little might half of thare equipment is out dated and left to rot in the four corners of the land most of thare nukes are of the same condition kept stable as a minimum they are no were near as capable as in the 50/60/70 . Still we have to keep an eye on this a lot of Europs gas comes from Russia .

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Split Ukraine up. It might give Russia a little more global power, but these things are subject to ebb and flow in any event. It's not going to serve to tip the scales in Russia's favour, or anything like, but rather diffuse a potential source of a truly worrying escalation of hostilities in the region and possibly beyond.

The problem is that Russia moved a bunch of Russian immigrants to Crimea, threw out the natives and are now invading to "keep their people safe".

Let's say we just randomly give Crimea to Russia to save peace. What happens when they want Donetsk too? Give them that? Then what about Kharkiv?

Let's just say that we split the Ukraine up and give them the Eastern half.

What about when they try the same thing in Estonia, a member of the EU, who has over 60% Russian living in their North West? Do we give an EU country over to the Russians?

This isn't a fantasy, Crimea is the third time they've used these tactics in the last few years. They did exactly the same in Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which they still occupy or hold puppet regimes within.

How much European land do we allow the Russians to claim in the name of diffusion of tensions? Up to Berlin?

I don't know much about the provenance of Ukraine's ethnic make-up, but I do speak with some authority on the current cultural blend of the country, as a very dear friend of mine lives near Odesa, having married a Belarusian a decade ago. I was,in fact, his best man at their wedding.

Russian culture is a little more prominent than you describe within Ukraine, based on my conversations with him.

You talk as if national borders are set in aspic. They never have been and most probably never will be. Russia peaceably taking the territories you describe does not concern me unduly, if it properly represents the will of the people in the affected areas. Perhaps the way that part of the world was carved up after the Iron Curtain came down was imperfect. That really wouldn't be too surprising. I expect any democratically driven carve-up would exclude Berlin and, in fact, most of Eastern Europe. That's a bit of history which I feel I can comment upon with some degree of certainty.

 

[dazdon]

If anyone is remotely bothered.

I have let the Cat in this morning and he is as yet not covered in fall-out dust and is asking for his dinner.

 

[J3SUS]

This is mildly worrying.

When the USSR broke up, as I understand it some of the the former USSR's strategic nuclear weapons were stored in Ukrainian territory.

The deal struck between Russia and Ukraine was that the weapons would be retrieved by Russia, and would thereafter be part of the sovereign assets of the Russian Republic and the Ukraine would have no claim on them. The quid pro quo was that Russia would forever more respect the territorial integrity of the Ukraine.

That obligation on Russia to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity is guaranteed by two western powers - the USA and the United Kingdom.

We have, in other words, a treaty obligation to go to Ukraine's aid if Russia violates its territorial integrity - including Ukrainian airspace.

This one could go nasty, people.

Putin must be shitting it - with the prospect of the UK military might storming into the Crimea with a water pistol and a pitch fork. We have no military capability - so we can forget any kind of military action. I'm not sure the US has the stomach for this either - although they do have the military might to more than go toe to toe with Russia. The Soviet Union may have collapsed but Russia has no respect for its neighbors and will manipulate this situation for maximum benefit. Putin is dangerous and the world stood by and let him bully Georgia - he will do the same here. The British more that any race should know appeasement is a waste of time where bully's are concerned. Unfortunately without any military capability and the total ineptness of the EU we will be wholly reliant on the US to manage this.

The ruskisi army now has very little might half of thare equipment is out dated and left to rot in the four corners of the land most of thare nukes are of the same condition kept stable as a minimum they are no were near as capable as in the 50/60/70 . Still we have to keep an eye on this a lot of Europs gas comes from Russia .

If it kicks off the war will be won/lost in the air IMO with a big advantage going to nato. Russia has not yet updated ( they are in the process) their airforce to adequately compete with NATO imo. And without air superiority they dont have a lot of room to move, like iraq a massive ground force pummeled into submission by air strikes.
The US has fifth generation jets in production compared to russias prototype T50's. Not to mention stealth bombers and blackbirds etc.
Surley Russia cannot call for WMD strikes as easy as hitting the launch sequence and watching the fireworks as I imagine their cache's/launch sites are some of the most monitored places in the world.