I hope the club understand how important this summer is when it comes to fixing significant issues in the team and this is my main issue: Points Dropped from Half-Time Leads
Man City have been extraordinarily wasteful when leading at the break. They dropped 11 points from half-time leads in the Premier League this season — only West Ham (13) have dropped more. That's already one more than they dropped across the entire 2024/25 season (10), and their worst record in this category since 2004/05 (17).
The collapse has been dramatic: they've thrown away half-time leads on five separate occasions this season — more than in any of their previous 17 top-flight seasons. The games include Brighton (A), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (H), and Tottenham (A)
Guardiola's historical control makes this even more damning. Before this season, City averaged just one point dropped from winning positions every four Premier League games — the best record in the competition. This season and last combined, they've dropped 21 points from 35 games where they led at half-time (0.60 per game), compared to just 42 points from 176 such games (0.24 per game) across his first eight seasons
The "if games ended at half-time" stat is staggering: City would be top of the league by 12 points. Instead, they found themselves six points behind Arsenal — who haven't dropped a single point from 11 half-time leads.
Late Goals Conceded
City have conceded 28 goals after the 75th minute this season — the 18th-most in the league, but notably more than Arsenal (20) and Nottingham Forest (23). While not the absolute worst, it's a significant departure from their usual late-game control.
More broadly, they've conceded 17 goals in the second half of their 24 games — 11 more than in the first half. They've faced over double the number of shots in the second half compared to the first (156 vs 71), while only attempting 10 more shots themselves after the break.
Finishing & xG Underperformance
Here's where the "wastefulness" claim gets complicated. City actually overperformed their xG across the full season: they scored 77 goals from an xG of 70.96 — a +6.04 overperformance.
However, the issue isn't necessarily raw finishing across the whole season — it's when they fail to convert. In key moments where they need a second or third goal to put games to bed, they've been profligate. The shot conversion rate sits at just 14% overall (10% away from home), and they've failed to score in 17% of matches.
The second-half scoring drop-off is telling: City average 1.67 goals in the second half at home but only 0.50 away from home. When they can't extend leads on the road, they become vulnerable to exactly the kind of late collapses we've seen.
Bernardo Silva's Own Admission
City captain Bernardo Silva put it bluntly after the season: "If we didn't make so many mistakes, we would have won this league." He specifically cited dropped points against Nottingham Forest, Tottenham, and West Ham.
Bottom Line
The core argument holds up, though with nuance: City haven't been consistently poor finishers in terms of season-long xG, but they've been catastrophically unable to kill teams off at critical moments. The combination of:
• 11 points dropped from half-time leads (worst since 2004/05)
• 5 separate games throwing away half-time leads (most in 17 seasons)
• 28 goals conceded after the 75th minute
• Second-half shot difference collapsing (156 shots faced vs 71 in first half)
...all point to a team that dominates first halves, fails to put games away, and then gets punished late. It's less about pure finishing quality and more about failing to convert dominance into decisive scorelines when it matters most.
